Sunday, November 12, 2006

1-loss Comparison

With the inevitable comparison of 1-loss teams for the championship, I figured I'd break down the numbers between Notre Dame and the other 1-loss teams. Because the rankings are flawed, I ordered them by ranking of the opponent they lost to.

I'll update this each week until the end of the season.

Wisconsin
Wins: 10
Losses: 1 [to #2 Michigan (11-0)]
Wins over BCS teams: 6
Wins over non-BCS teams: 3
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 3
Wins over I-AA opponents: 1
Remaining games:
Buffalo (2-8)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
Purdue (7-4)
Penn State (7-4)
Iowa (6-5)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
NONE
Wins over teams on the bubble:
Bowling Green (4-6)
Indiana (5-6)
Minnesota (5-6)

Arguments for: Only loss is to #2 Michigan
Arguments Against: Strength of Schedule. They haven't beaten anybody. No wins against ranked opponents, and have an extremely weak non-conference schedule. No big games to increase their ranking from here on.

Notre Dame
Wins: 9
Losses: 1 [to #2 Michigan (11-0)]
Wins over BCS teams: 7
Wins over non-BCS teams: 2
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 4
Wins over I-AA opponents: 0
Remaining games:
Army (3-7)
#4 Southern Cal (9-1)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
#18 Georgia Tech (8-2)
Penn State (7-4)
Purdue (7-4)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
Navy (7-3)
Wins over teams on the bubble:
UCLA (5-5)
Air Force (4-5)

Arguments for: Only loss is to undefeated #2 Michigan, and they have beaten the ACC Coastal champion. No games against I-AA opponents. Has shown an uncanny knack to rally and get the win.
Arguments against: No wins over top-ten teams (yet). Got creamed by Michigan at home by 26 points. Has shown an uncanny knack to have to rally and get the win.

Arkansas
Wins: 9
Losses: 1 [to #4 Southern Cal (9-1)]
Wins over BCS teams: 6
Wins over non-BCS teams: 3
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 3
Wins over I-AA opponents: 1
Remaining games:
Mississippi State (3-7)
#9 LSU (8-2)
SEC Championship [likely against #3 Florida (9-1)]
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
#15 Auburn (7-3)
Alabama (6-5)
#23 Tennessee (7-3)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
NONE
Wins over teams on the bubble:
South Carolina (5-5)

Arguments for: Has beaten two ranked teams, loss was to a top five team in first game of season before they started QB Mustain.
Arguments against: Have beaten only 3 bowl eligible teams. Got absolutely KILLED by Southern Cal at home to the tune of 50-14 - a 36 point blowout.

Louisville
Wins: 8
Losses: 1 [to #8 Rutgers (9-0)]
Wins over BCS teams: 6
Wins over non-BCS teams: 2
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 4
Wins over I-AA opponents: 0
Remaining games:
South Florida (7-3)
Pittsburgh (6-4)
Connecticut (4-5)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
Kentucky (6-4)
Kansas State (7-4)
#7 West Virginia (8-1)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
Middle Tennessee State (7-3)
Wins over teams on the bubble:
Miami (5-5)
Cincinnati (5-5)

Arguments for: Only loss was to undefeated Rutgers, and had a big win over West Virginia.
Arguments against: Lost to Rutgers. Besides West Virginia, haven't really played anyone (Miami ended up sucking this year).

West Virginia
Wins: 8
Losses: 1 [to #12 Louisville (8-1)]
Wins over BCS teams: 6
Wins over non-BCS teams: 3
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 2
Wins over I-AA opponents: 1
Remaining games:
Pittsburgh (6-4)
South Florida (7-3)
#8 Rutgers (9-0)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
#21 Maryland (8-2)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
East Carolina (6-4)
Wins over teams on the bubble:
Marshall (4-6)
Connecticut (4-5)
Cincinnati (5-5)

Arguments for: Loss was to another 1-loss top-15 team on the road. Beat ACC Atlantic leader Maryland.
Arguments against: Maryland is their only decent win - they have only beaten 2 bowl eligible teams. One of the weakest schedules in the country.

Florida
Wins: 9
Losses: 1 [to #15 Auburn (9-2)]
Wins over BCS teams: 7
Wins over non-BCS teams: 2
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 6
Wins over I-AA opponents: 0
Remaining games:
I-AA Western Carolina (2-8 in I-AA)
Florida State (5-5)
SEC Championship [likely against #6 Arkansas (9-1)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
#23 Tennessee (7-3)
Kentucky (6-5)
Alabama (6-5)
#9 LSU (8-2)
Georgia (7-4)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
Southern Mississippi (6-4)
Wins over teams on the bubble:
South Carolina (5-5)

Arguments for: Won SEC East, played a difficult SEC schedule. Only loss was to a good Auburn team on the road.
Arguments against: Wins aren't as impressive in retrospect, and has looked unimpressive since loss - close calls against Georgia, Vandy, and South Carolina.

Southern Cal
Wins: 8
Losses: 1 [to Oregon State (6-4)]
Wins over BCS teams: 8
Wins over non-BCS teams: 0
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 6
Wins over I-AA opponents: 0
Remaining games:
#17 California (8-2)
#5 Notre Dame (9-1)
UCLA (5-5)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
#6 Arkansas (9-1)
#22 Nebraska (8-3)
Washington State (6-5)
Arizona State (6-5)
Oregon State (6-4)
Oregon (7-3)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
NONE
Wins over teams on the bubble:
Arizona (5-5)

Arguments for: Played one of toughest schedules in the country, with big wins over Arkansas, Nebraska, and Oregon.
Arguments against: Lost to a horrible Oregon State team, by far the worst loss of any of the 1-loss teams. Barely beat hapless Washington, Arizona State, and Washington State.

So there they are, the 1-loss contenders heading down the stretch (there are other 1-loss teams that don't really have any shot). We still have a lot of games to play, and it should be exciting to see how it shakes out.

FIVE GAMES THAT WILL DECIDE THE CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDER:
LSU at Arkansas - Nov. 24
Florida at Florida State - Nov. 25
Notre Dame at Southern Cal - Nov. 25
Rutgers at West Virginia - Dec. 2
SEC Championship game: Florida vs. Arkansas - Dec. 2

Have fun, and enjoy the ride.

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