Nothing can compare to the atmosphere on campus this week. The last time I remember there being this much energy and atmosphere surrounding a Notre Dame game was 1993 - Florida State v. Notre Dame. The result: ND breaks FSU's winning streak.
As a student at Notre Dame who is living out a dream I've had for as long as I can remember, the following post on Blue Gray Sky blog has summed up my feelings on this game.
http://bluegraysky.blogspot.com/2005_10_01_bluegraysky_archive.html#112930545761703765
All of the predictions are in, ESPN has arrived (my brother and I rolled out of bed at 7 am to get to campus for the taping of Cold Pizza, the morning show on ESPN2), and rumors surrounding tonight's pep rally and the celebs on campus abound. According to [I'm not making this up] a classmate's sister's best friends professor, who is a friend of the owner of the Saint Mary's Inn, Bon Jovi is staying there. Also, there was a confirmed sitting of Brad Pitt at Recker's yesterday. The current favorites for the pep rally are Springsteen and Bon Jovi performing, with Montana and Holtz speaking.
All that is left is to play the game.
I believe.
Friday, October 14, 2005
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
Southern Cal v. Notre Dame Analysis
This is the biggest game Notre Dame has played in the last 12 years. Not since the 1993 #1/#2 Florida State/Notre Dame matchup has so much hype, so much promise, and so much prestige been on the line in one game.
Notre Dame was ranked in the 40s in almost every preseason poll in the country, with only 1 player ranked in the top ten at their position in any of the preseason mags (Anthony Fasano). The talking heads said that Weis was the wise choice for coach, but that he would need time to recruit talent to compete with the Michigan's and USCs of the world. Fast forward 5 games, and the Irish are sitting at 4-1, having been an underdog against Pittsburgh and Michigan before stumbling at home against a red-hot Michigan State team in overtime. Now ranked 9th in the country, the team just completed their most impressive game to date, a methodical dismantling of 22nd ranked Purdue at Ross-Ade Stadium. Brady Quinn has thrust himself into the Heisman picture, and virtual unknown Jeff Samardzija is suddenly on track for a consensus All-American season. Darius Walker tied the school record for the most consecutive 100-yard rushing games to start a season.
Southern Cal is undeniably the #1 team in the nation. While they have shown some weaknesses, their offense scores over 50 points per game, and average over 600 yards per game. They have a 27-game winning streak coming into this game, the longest current streak in the nation. They have the top 2 Heisman Trophy Candidates in Matt Leinart and LenDale White. And despite all of the talk of their first-half letdowns over the last three games, there will be no such letdown when the suit up against the Irish. The Trojans know all too well what Notre Dame can do to a winning streak.
History may have something to say about this game. Notre Dame has a habit of breaking winning streaks. The NCAA-record 47-game winning streak of Oklahoma in 1957 ended at the hands of the Irish. So did the school-record 31 game winning streak of Georgia Tech in 1953. And the 37-game regular season winning streak of Miami in 1988. And the 16-game winning streak of Florida State in 1993. Even Notre Dame basketball has gotten in on the bubble-bursting; they defeated UCLA to snap their NCAA-record 88-game winning streak.
But perhaps the most important streak the Irish have broken: the last time a 20+ game USC team came to town. In 1973, the defending National Champion Trojans came to South Bend sporting a 23-game winning streak, and left with a 23-14 loss.
Now the stage is set. The mighty Trojans roll in sporting all of the confidence and swagger of a two-time defending national champion. The Irish are sitting at home with two weeks to heal and prepare themselves, more confidence in their offensive abilities than ever before, and are suddenly acting like a team that expects to win every game.
Its time for Notre Dame to retake their reputation as THE team to beat in college football.
Notre Dame Quarterbacks and Receivers v. Southern Cal Defensive Backs
Edge: Notre Dame
Notre Dame Starters
Brady Quinn, QB, Sr.
124-190 1,621 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT
Jeff Samardzija, WR, Jr.
28 rec., 499 yds., 8 TD
Maurice Stovall, WR, Sr.
23 rec., 388 yds., 1 TD
Matt Shelton, WR, Sr.
14 rec., 159 yds
Rhema McKnight, WR, Sr.
(in 2 games) 5 rec., 69 yds., 1 TD
Depth:
David Grimes, WR, Fr., 1 rec., 11 yds.
Southern Cal Starters
Justin Wyatt, CB
14 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT
Scott Ware, FS
16 tackles
Darnell Bing, SS
12 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 INT, 5 pass breakups
John Walker, CB (2nd string)
21 tackles, 2 INT, 3 pass breakups
Depth:
Josh Pinkard, S, 18 tackles, 3 pass breakups, 2 INT
William Buchanon, CB, 1 tackle
Injuries:
Terrell Thomas, CB, 6 tacklesand 1 pass breakup in 2 games (out)
Brady Quinn is poised to launch himself into the Heisman Trophy lead if he out-guns current Heisman leader Matt Leinart on national TV. He has all of the weapons he needs healthy (by all accounts, Rhema and Shelton are back to 100% and will play extensively). His robot-genius coach has had two weeks to calculate how to score the most points against SC. Oh, and there is a 2nd string corner starting in SC's backfield. I expect the Irish to gash this pass defense all day long, especially when Carroll gets frustrated and starts to be over-aggressive in defending the runs and screens.
Notre Dame Running Backs and Tight Ends v. Southern Cal Linebackers
Edge: Draw
Notre Dame Starters
Darius Walker
116 rushes, 571 yds., 3 TD, 17 rec., 116 yds., 2 TD - 5 Total TDs
Rashon Powers-Neal
31 rushes, 101 yds., 6 TD, 9 rec., 90 yds.
Anthony Fasano
23 rec., 249 yds.
Depth:
Travis Thomas, RB, 19 rushes, 109 yds., 2 TD
Asaph Schwapp, 9 rushes, 19 yds.
John Carlson, 4 rec., 40 yds., 1 TD
Southern Cal Starters
Thomas Williams, SLB, So.
12 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 pass breakups
Oscar Lua, MLB, Jr.
32 tackles, 1 INT
Keith Rivers, WLB, So.
25 tackles, 2 tackles for loss
Depth:
Clay Matthews, LB, Fr.
Collin Ashton, LB, Sr.
Rey Maualuga, LB, Fr.
Injuries:
Dallas Sartz, LB, 9 tackles and 2 sacks in 2 games (questionable)
Brian Cushing, LB, 1 tackle in 1 game (out)
Despite Notre Dame's experienced line and great running backs, the Irish will struggle if they try to run up the gut of this defense; SC's middle backer is a stud, and will plug the gaps all day long. Also, the defensive team speed will frustrate Darius' attempts to get to the corner. However, Weis will probably not test that too much, and will run screens, off-tackle, and short passes to Fasano to stretch out the 'backers, loosening up the run later in the game. I don't expect Darius to run for a lot more than 100 yards, but I wouldn't be surprised for him to get real close to the century mark.
Notre Dame Offensive Line v. Southern Cal Defensive Line
Edge: Draw
Notre Dame Starters:
Ryan Harris, LT
Dan Santucci, LG
Bob Morton or John Sullivan, C
Dan Stevenson, RG
Mark LeVoir, RT
Depth:
Michael Turkovich, Fr., T
Brian Mattes and Scott Raridon, Srs., G
Southern Cal Starters
Lawrence Jackson, DE
20 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 pass breakups
Sedrick Ellis, NT
14 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 additional tackles for loss, 2 pass breakups
LaJuan Ramsey, DT
8 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss
Fili Moala, DT
3 tackles, 1 tackle for loss
Frostee Rucker, DE
27 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 additional tackles for loss
Depth:
Jeff Schweiger, DE, So., 2 tackles, 1 for loss
Alex Morrow, DE, So., 3 tackles
Travis Tofi, NT, Jr., 5 tackles, 1.5 sacks
Travis Draper, DT, Fr.
Southern Cal has some very good defensive ends who will pressure Brady all day, but this shouldn't be a huge problem with this team's tendency to use three-step drops, screens and draw plays to frustrate the pass rush. The Notre Dame experience will pick up many of the blitzes that Carroll will throw at them, but I do expect Brady to get hit more than he has all day. The SC numbers for this unit will look good, but Brady's presence will allow him to make some big throws before the hit. Brady will leave this game bruised, but not beaten. The short running game should still be effective, as RPN rarely loses yards, and keeps his feet moving. Don't be surprised if Charlie uses less of Schwapp and more of RPN to pick up blitzes and lead block to avoid mistakes.
Southern Cal Quarterbacks and Receivers v. Notre Dame Defensive Backs
Edge: Southern Cal
Southern Cal Starters
Matt Leinart, QB, Sr.
108-166, 1,646 yards, 12 TD, 3 INT
Dwayne Jarrett, SE, So.
35 rec., 467 yds., 9 TD
Steve Smith, FL, Jr.
27 rec., 575 yds., 1 TD
Depth:
John David Booty, QB, So., 9-17 96 yards, 2 TD
Patrick Turner, SE, Fr., 3 rec. 45 yds., 1 TD
Chris McFoy, FL, Jr., 5 rec. 50 yds.
Notre Dame Starters
Ambrose Wooden
36 tackles, 5 pass breakups, 1 INT
Chinedum Ndukwe
21 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 pass breakup, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble, 4 fumble recoveries
Tom Zbikowski
31 tackles, 4 pass breakups, 2 INTs, 1 forced fumble
Mike Richardson
25 tackles, 1 sack, 4 pass breakups, 1 INT, 1 fumble recovery
If there is any match-up in this game that makes me indecisive about calling this game for the Irish, it is this one. Our pass defense is not great, and Leinart has been lighting it up all year long. The key here will be for the defensive backfield to play the same game it has played all year: keep the game in front of the safeties, get disciplined pressure on the QB, don't give up the big play, and tighten the noose in the red zone. More than any other team in the country, SC has the talent to score from anywhere on the field on any given play. Hopefully, Weis' focus on technique and fundamentals last week will allow this defense to slow the juggernaught that is SC's offense enough that our dependable offense can out pace them in the end.
A couple of picks by this unit (especially one for a score ala Shane Walton) could gift-wrap the Heisman for Brady Quinn.
Southern Cal Running Backs and Tight Ends v. Notre Dame Linebackers
Edge: Southern Cal
Southern Cal Starters
Reggie Bush, RB, Jr.
71 rushes, 601 yds., 6 TD, 13 rec., 191 yds. 2 TD - 8 total TDs
LenDale White, RB, Sr.
81 rushes, 616 yards, 10 TD, 3 rec., 44 yds - 10 total TDs
David Kirtman, FB, Sr.
12 rec., 169 yds., 2 TD
Dominique Byrd, TE, Sr.
10 rec., 95 yds.
Depth:
Brandon Hancock, FB, Jr., 5 rec., 60 yds.
Dale Thompson, TE, So.
Notre Dame Starters
Brandon Hoyte
42 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 2 forced fumbles
Corey Mays
25 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 pass breakups, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 forced fumble
Maurice Crum, Jr.
20 tackles, 1 forced fumble
I can guarantee that this game will be the only one all year that I give the edge in this matchup to the opposing team. The biggest reason that Southern Cal is undefeated, and that Leinart is a favorite to win his second Heisman, is the play of their starting tailbacks: Bush and White. White is a classic, pound the ball running back, a sure starter on any team in the country, who runs hard north-south and makes you mob him to bring him down.
Bush is possibly the most talented running back since Barry Sanders, a slasher who can beat you running the ball, or shift from the backfield into the slot and play better than most receivers in the country.
Notre Dame has a solid run defense, and All-American Hoyte will have his hands full all day long. Hopefully, his conditioning will allow him to run with Bush and out-muscle White. I expect SC to run the ball effectively, but not spectacularly. If Notre Dame trails late, these backs could put the game away for SC by wearing out our linebackers. However, if Notre Dame leads late, Expect Bush to come in more as a receiver, allowing the Irish to improve their pass rush as SC scrambles to get back in the game.
Southern Cal Offensive Line v. Notre Dame Defensive Line
Edge: Southern Cal
Southern Cal Starters
Sam Baker, LT
Taitusi Lutui, LG
Ryan Kalil, C
Fred Matua, RG
Winston Justice, RT
Depth:
Kyle Williams, T
Alatini Malu, G/T
Chilo Rachal, G
Matt Spanos, C
Notre Dame Starters
Victor Abiamiri, DE
18 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 1 forced fumble
Derek Landri, DT
9 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 pass breakup
Trevor Laws, DT
6 tackles, 1 pass breakup, 1 blocked kick
Chris Frome, DE
6 tackles, 1 sack, 3 pass breakups
Notre Dame's defensive line is good, but not great. Southern Cal's offensive line is a lot like our own - big, talented, and experienced. I don't expect our D-line to get manhandled, but I also worry about our ability to get pressure on Leinart. The biggest problem: Derek Landri is giving up 100 lbs. on SC's left guard Taitusi Lutui. This matchup could be decided by the officials; if holding is called tightly, our speed on the line can get around the muscle, but if the line is permitted to grab hold of our D-line, this could get ugly.
Notre Dame Coaches v. Southern Cal Coaches
Edge: Notre Dame
According to my wife, a co-worker was at Armando's on Saturday, where Coach Weis had taken his son to get his hair cut. Coach was asked whether we were going to win on Saturday. Never one to guarantee victory, Charlie responded "He [Pete Carroll] couldn't beat me in the pros."
Charlie obviously feels that he is familiar with Carroll's schemes and isn't worried about being able to out-coach him. Carroll is a great college coach, but he doesn't understand the game on the same level as Charlie. There isn't much by way of offensive coordinator at USC, where Leinart is effective largely due to his tutelage under Norm Chow the last couple of years. Carroll has always been a defensive coach, and never hired a defensive coordinator, electing to take on that role for himself. Although Charlie has an offensive coordinator, he calls the plays himself, and is responsible for all offensive adjustments. Rick Minter's bend-don't break defense has largely gotten the job done, with the exception of a couple of series early against Michigan State. I can guarantee that Charlie's offense will get the better of Carroll's defense. Also, Leinart will probably move the ball all day long against Minter's defense. However, look for the Notre Dame defense to stiffen up the closer the Trojans get to the end zone, as the Irish have forced turnovers inside the red zone in every win this year.
Final Prediction:
Notre Dame 38
Southern Cal 28
'Cause Bobby Brown said so.
Every part of my mind, looking at matchups and statistics and data, says that Southern Cal wins this game. However, having watched every Notre Dame game this year, and having watched two of the last three Southern Cal games, I can't seem to shake this confidence built up deep inside that the Irish are going to win this game. All of the factors not discussed in my usual analyses go towards the Irish. It's a home game. The weather should be chilly and wet, which will slow down the Trojan speedsters. Southern Cal's biggest weakness is kickoffs and punts, which the Irish have done well in, but have been unable to break out. Notre Dame is 38-4 coming off of bye weeks.
And Bobby Brown said so.
I expect the Trojans to come out strong, and the Irish may even trail by a touchdown early. However, the Trojans will make a couple of mistakes costing them points in the first half, as they have the last three weeks, while the Irish offense continues its efficient and nearly mistake-free offense, churning out time, yards, and points. Notre Dame 17 - 14 at the half. In the second half, Carroll's vaunted halftime adjustments give Minter's defense some fits early, and the Trojans take the lead going into the 4th quarter. However, the offense of Notre Dame continues its march as the Trojan defense starts to tire. Notre Dame outscores Southern Cal 21-7 in the final quarter, and come away with the victory.
Notre Dame was ranked in the 40s in almost every preseason poll in the country, with only 1 player ranked in the top ten at their position in any of the preseason mags (Anthony Fasano). The talking heads said that Weis was the wise choice for coach, but that he would need time to recruit talent to compete with the Michigan's and USCs of the world. Fast forward 5 games, and the Irish are sitting at 4-1, having been an underdog against Pittsburgh and Michigan before stumbling at home against a red-hot Michigan State team in overtime. Now ranked 9th in the country, the team just completed their most impressive game to date, a methodical dismantling of 22nd ranked Purdue at Ross-Ade Stadium. Brady Quinn has thrust himself into the Heisman picture, and virtual unknown Jeff Samardzija is suddenly on track for a consensus All-American season. Darius Walker tied the school record for the most consecutive 100-yard rushing games to start a season.
Southern Cal is undeniably the #1 team in the nation. While they have shown some weaknesses, their offense scores over 50 points per game, and average over 600 yards per game. They have a 27-game winning streak coming into this game, the longest current streak in the nation. They have the top 2 Heisman Trophy Candidates in Matt Leinart and LenDale White. And despite all of the talk of their first-half letdowns over the last three games, there will be no such letdown when the suit up against the Irish. The Trojans know all too well what Notre Dame can do to a winning streak.
History may have something to say about this game. Notre Dame has a habit of breaking winning streaks. The NCAA-record 47-game winning streak of Oklahoma in 1957 ended at the hands of the Irish. So did the school-record 31 game winning streak of Georgia Tech in 1953. And the 37-game regular season winning streak of Miami in 1988. And the 16-game winning streak of Florida State in 1993. Even Notre Dame basketball has gotten in on the bubble-bursting; they defeated UCLA to snap their NCAA-record 88-game winning streak.
But perhaps the most important streak the Irish have broken: the last time a 20+ game USC team came to town. In 1973, the defending National Champion Trojans came to South Bend sporting a 23-game winning streak, and left with a 23-14 loss.
Now the stage is set. The mighty Trojans roll in sporting all of the confidence and swagger of a two-time defending national champion. The Irish are sitting at home with two weeks to heal and prepare themselves, more confidence in their offensive abilities than ever before, and are suddenly acting like a team that expects to win every game.
Its time for Notre Dame to retake their reputation as THE team to beat in college football.
Notre Dame Quarterbacks and Receivers v. Southern Cal Defensive Backs
Edge: Notre Dame
Notre Dame Starters
Brady Quinn, QB, Sr.
124-190 1,621 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT
Jeff Samardzija, WR, Jr.
28 rec., 499 yds., 8 TD
Maurice Stovall, WR, Sr.
23 rec., 388 yds., 1 TD
Matt Shelton, WR, Sr.
14 rec., 159 yds
Rhema McKnight, WR, Sr.
(in 2 games) 5 rec., 69 yds., 1 TD
Depth:
David Grimes, WR, Fr., 1 rec., 11 yds.
Southern Cal Starters
Justin Wyatt, CB
14 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT
Scott Ware, FS
16 tackles
Darnell Bing, SS
12 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 INT, 5 pass breakups
John Walker, CB (2nd string)
21 tackles, 2 INT, 3 pass breakups
Depth:
Josh Pinkard, S, 18 tackles, 3 pass breakups, 2 INT
William Buchanon, CB, 1 tackle
Injuries:
Terrell Thomas, CB, 6 tacklesand 1 pass breakup in 2 games (out)
Brady Quinn is poised to launch himself into the Heisman Trophy lead if he out-guns current Heisman leader Matt Leinart on national TV. He has all of the weapons he needs healthy (by all accounts, Rhema and Shelton are back to 100% and will play extensively). His robot-genius coach has had two weeks to calculate how to score the most points against SC. Oh, and there is a 2nd string corner starting in SC's backfield. I expect the Irish to gash this pass defense all day long, especially when Carroll gets frustrated and starts to be over-aggressive in defending the runs and screens.
Notre Dame Running Backs and Tight Ends v. Southern Cal Linebackers
Edge: Draw
Notre Dame Starters
Darius Walker
116 rushes, 571 yds., 3 TD, 17 rec., 116 yds., 2 TD - 5 Total TDs
Rashon Powers-Neal
31 rushes, 101 yds., 6 TD, 9 rec., 90 yds.
Anthony Fasano
23 rec., 249 yds.
Depth:
Travis Thomas, RB, 19 rushes, 109 yds., 2 TD
Asaph Schwapp, 9 rushes, 19 yds.
John Carlson, 4 rec., 40 yds., 1 TD
Southern Cal Starters
Thomas Williams, SLB, So.
12 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 pass breakups
Oscar Lua, MLB, Jr.
32 tackles, 1 INT
Keith Rivers, WLB, So.
25 tackles, 2 tackles for loss
Depth:
Clay Matthews, LB, Fr.
Collin Ashton, LB, Sr.
Rey Maualuga, LB, Fr.
Injuries:
Dallas Sartz, LB, 9 tackles and 2 sacks in 2 games (questionable)
Brian Cushing, LB, 1 tackle in 1 game (out)
Despite Notre Dame's experienced line and great running backs, the Irish will struggle if they try to run up the gut of this defense; SC's middle backer is a stud, and will plug the gaps all day long. Also, the defensive team speed will frustrate Darius' attempts to get to the corner. However, Weis will probably not test that too much, and will run screens, off-tackle, and short passes to Fasano to stretch out the 'backers, loosening up the run later in the game. I don't expect Darius to run for a lot more than 100 yards, but I wouldn't be surprised for him to get real close to the century mark.
Notre Dame Offensive Line v. Southern Cal Defensive Line
Edge: Draw
Notre Dame Starters:
Ryan Harris, LT
Dan Santucci, LG
Bob Morton or John Sullivan, C
Dan Stevenson, RG
Mark LeVoir, RT
Depth:
Michael Turkovich, Fr., T
Brian Mattes and Scott Raridon, Srs., G
Southern Cal Starters
Lawrence Jackson, DE
20 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 pass breakups
Sedrick Ellis, NT
14 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 additional tackles for loss, 2 pass breakups
LaJuan Ramsey, DT
8 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss
Fili Moala, DT
3 tackles, 1 tackle for loss
Frostee Rucker, DE
27 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 additional tackles for loss
Depth:
Jeff Schweiger, DE, So., 2 tackles, 1 for loss
Alex Morrow, DE, So., 3 tackles
Travis Tofi, NT, Jr., 5 tackles, 1.5 sacks
Travis Draper, DT, Fr.
Southern Cal has some very good defensive ends who will pressure Brady all day, but this shouldn't be a huge problem with this team's tendency to use three-step drops, screens and draw plays to frustrate the pass rush. The Notre Dame experience will pick up many of the blitzes that Carroll will throw at them, but I do expect Brady to get hit more than he has all day. The SC numbers for this unit will look good, but Brady's presence will allow him to make some big throws before the hit. Brady will leave this game bruised, but not beaten. The short running game should still be effective, as RPN rarely loses yards, and keeps his feet moving. Don't be surprised if Charlie uses less of Schwapp and more of RPN to pick up blitzes and lead block to avoid mistakes.
Southern Cal Quarterbacks and Receivers v. Notre Dame Defensive Backs
Edge: Southern Cal
Southern Cal Starters
Matt Leinart, QB, Sr.
108-166, 1,646 yards, 12 TD, 3 INT
Dwayne Jarrett, SE, So.
35 rec., 467 yds., 9 TD
Steve Smith, FL, Jr.
27 rec., 575 yds., 1 TD
Depth:
John David Booty, QB, So., 9-17 96 yards, 2 TD
Patrick Turner, SE, Fr., 3 rec. 45 yds., 1 TD
Chris McFoy, FL, Jr., 5 rec. 50 yds.
Notre Dame Starters
Ambrose Wooden
36 tackles, 5 pass breakups, 1 INT
Chinedum Ndukwe
21 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 pass breakup, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble, 4 fumble recoveries
Tom Zbikowski
31 tackles, 4 pass breakups, 2 INTs, 1 forced fumble
Mike Richardson
25 tackles, 1 sack, 4 pass breakups, 1 INT, 1 fumble recovery
If there is any match-up in this game that makes me indecisive about calling this game for the Irish, it is this one. Our pass defense is not great, and Leinart has been lighting it up all year long. The key here will be for the defensive backfield to play the same game it has played all year: keep the game in front of the safeties, get disciplined pressure on the QB, don't give up the big play, and tighten the noose in the red zone. More than any other team in the country, SC has the talent to score from anywhere on the field on any given play. Hopefully, Weis' focus on technique and fundamentals last week will allow this defense to slow the juggernaught that is SC's offense enough that our dependable offense can out pace them in the end.
A couple of picks by this unit (especially one for a score ala Shane Walton) could gift-wrap the Heisman for Brady Quinn.
Southern Cal Running Backs and Tight Ends v. Notre Dame Linebackers
Edge: Southern Cal
Southern Cal Starters
Reggie Bush, RB, Jr.
71 rushes, 601 yds., 6 TD, 13 rec., 191 yds. 2 TD - 8 total TDs
LenDale White, RB, Sr.
81 rushes, 616 yards, 10 TD, 3 rec., 44 yds - 10 total TDs
David Kirtman, FB, Sr.
12 rec., 169 yds., 2 TD
Dominique Byrd, TE, Sr.
10 rec., 95 yds.
Depth:
Brandon Hancock, FB, Jr., 5 rec., 60 yds.
Dale Thompson, TE, So.
Notre Dame Starters
Brandon Hoyte
42 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 2 forced fumbles
Corey Mays
25 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 pass breakups, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 forced fumble
Maurice Crum, Jr.
20 tackles, 1 forced fumble
I can guarantee that this game will be the only one all year that I give the edge in this matchup to the opposing team. The biggest reason that Southern Cal is undefeated, and that Leinart is a favorite to win his second Heisman, is the play of their starting tailbacks: Bush and White. White is a classic, pound the ball running back, a sure starter on any team in the country, who runs hard north-south and makes you mob him to bring him down.
Bush is possibly the most talented running back since Barry Sanders, a slasher who can beat you running the ball, or shift from the backfield into the slot and play better than most receivers in the country.
Notre Dame has a solid run defense, and All-American Hoyte will have his hands full all day long. Hopefully, his conditioning will allow him to run with Bush and out-muscle White. I expect SC to run the ball effectively, but not spectacularly. If Notre Dame trails late, these backs could put the game away for SC by wearing out our linebackers. However, if Notre Dame leads late, Expect Bush to come in more as a receiver, allowing the Irish to improve their pass rush as SC scrambles to get back in the game.
Southern Cal Offensive Line v. Notre Dame Defensive Line
Edge: Southern Cal
Southern Cal Starters
Sam Baker, LT
Taitusi Lutui, LG
Ryan Kalil, C
Fred Matua, RG
Winston Justice, RT
Depth:
Kyle Williams, T
Alatini Malu, G/T
Chilo Rachal, G
Matt Spanos, C
Notre Dame Starters
Victor Abiamiri, DE
18 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 1 forced fumble
Derek Landri, DT
9 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 pass breakup
Trevor Laws, DT
6 tackles, 1 pass breakup, 1 blocked kick
Chris Frome, DE
6 tackles, 1 sack, 3 pass breakups
Notre Dame's defensive line is good, but not great. Southern Cal's offensive line is a lot like our own - big, talented, and experienced. I don't expect our D-line to get manhandled, but I also worry about our ability to get pressure on Leinart. The biggest problem: Derek Landri is giving up 100 lbs. on SC's left guard Taitusi Lutui. This matchup could be decided by the officials; if holding is called tightly, our speed on the line can get around the muscle, but if the line is permitted to grab hold of our D-line, this could get ugly.
Notre Dame Coaches v. Southern Cal Coaches
Edge: Notre Dame
According to my wife, a co-worker was at Armando's on Saturday, where Coach Weis had taken his son to get his hair cut. Coach was asked whether we were going to win on Saturday. Never one to guarantee victory, Charlie responded "He [Pete Carroll] couldn't beat me in the pros."
Charlie obviously feels that he is familiar with Carroll's schemes and isn't worried about being able to out-coach him. Carroll is a great college coach, but he doesn't understand the game on the same level as Charlie. There isn't much by way of offensive coordinator at USC, where Leinart is effective largely due to his tutelage under Norm Chow the last couple of years. Carroll has always been a defensive coach, and never hired a defensive coordinator, electing to take on that role for himself. Although Charlie has an offensive coordinator, he calls the plays himself, and is responsible for all offensive adjustments. Rick Minter's bend-don't break defense has largely gotten the job done, with the exception of a couple of series early against Michigan State. I can guarantee that Charlie's offense will get the better of Carroll's defense. Also, Leinart will probably move the ball all day long against Minter's defense. However, look for the Notre Dame defense to stiffen up the closer the Trojans get to the end zone, as the Irish have forced turnovers inside the red zone in every win this year.
Final Prediction:
Notre Dame 38
Southern Cal 28
'Cause Bobby Brown said so.
Every part of my mind, looking at matchups and statistics and data, says that Southern Cal wins this game. However, having watched every Notre Dame game this year, and having watched two of the last three Southern Cal games, I can't seem to shake this confidence built up deep inside that the Irish are going to win this game. All of the factors not discussed in my usual analyses go towards the Irish. It's a home game. The weather should be chilly and wet, which will slow down the Trojan speedsters. Southern Cal's biggest weakness is kickoffs and punts, which the Irish have done well in, but have been unable to break out. Notre Dame is 38-4 coming off of bye weeks.
And Bobby Brown said so.
I expect the Trojans to come out strong, and the Irish may even trail by a touchdown early. However, the Trojans will make a couple of mistakes costing them points in the first half, as they have the last three weeks, while the Irish offense continues its efficient and nearly mistake-free offense, churning out time, yards, and points. Notre Dame 17 - 14 at the half. In the second half, Carroll's vaunted halftime adjustments give Minter's defense some fits early, and the Trojans take the lead going into the 4th quarter. However, the offense of Notre Dame continues its march as the Trojan defense starts to tire. Notre Dame outscores Southern Cal 21-7 in the final quarter, and come away with the victory.
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
Expert Analysis (No, Really, It's not me...)
Yesterday, as I was attempting to scarf down a lunch during my 45-minute break between classes, none other than former Notre Dame football player Bobby Brown sits done a couple seats away from me. Another student stopped to ask him about the game this Saturday, and so I thought I would share his insightful analysis of ND's chances this week against the Condoms of Southern Cal.
His first point was that the key to this game will be which offense will be able to control the clock and keep the other offense off of the field. He thinks that Notre Dame will edge out the Trojans in this category. (Due to my obsession, I was able to share with Bobby the fact that the Irish are #1 in the country in time of possession).
Edge: Irish
His next point is that the elements will play a factor in this game. The Trojans haven't played anywhere but balmy, dry weather thus far, having played games in Southern Cal and Arizona thus far. When they come to town this week, the forecast is 54 degrees and sporadic showers for the game, with cooler temps as the game wears on. The precipitation will slow down the Condom's speedsters, and the cool temps will be a bit of a shock for the Southern Cal pretty boys. Wind won't be as much of a factor, but this definitely plays into the Irish game plan.
Edge: Irish
Finally, Bobby's last comment was that the ND defense will be much improved this week, and both teams' attempts to control the pace will result in a lower scoring game, and not the shootout that the experts are predicting. With the Weis offense, a lower scoring game plays in our favor, as this offense is quite possibly the most consistent unit in all of college football, whereas the Trojan's offense has lived and died by their ability to explode for points over a short period of time.
Edge: Irish
I pushed Bobby for a score prediction, but he wouldn't get too specific. The one thing that he kept repeating throughout the conversation was:
Notre Dame by 10.
His first point was that the key to this game will be which offense will be able to control the clock and keep the other offense off of the field. He thinks that Notre Dame will edge out the Trojans in this category. (Due to my obsession, I was able to share with Bobby the fact that the Irish are #1 in the country in time of possession).
Edge: Irish
His next point is that the elements will play a factor in this game. The Trojans haven't played anywhere but balmy, dry weather thus far, having played games in Southern Cal and Arizona thus far. When they come to town this week, the forecast is 54 degrees and sporadic showers for the game, with cooler temps as the game wears on. The precipitation will slow down the Condom's speedsters, and the cool temps will be a bit of a shock for the Southern Cal pretty boys. Wind won't be as much of a factor, but this definitely plays into the Irish game plan.
Edge: Irish
Finally, Bobby's last comment was that the ND defense will be much improved this week, and both teams' attempts to control the pace will result in a lower scoring game, and not the shootout that the experts are predicting. With the Weis offense, a lower scoring game plays in our favor, as this offense is quite possibly the most consistent unit in all of college football, whereas the Trojan's offense has lived and died by their ability to explode for points over a short period of time.
Edge: Irish
I pushed Bobby for a score prediction, but he wouldn't get too specific. The one thing that he kept repeating throughout the conversation was:
Notre Dame by 10.
Monday, October 03, 2005
Notre Dame 49, Purdue 28
Notre Dame got a big monkey off its back this week. Not the Boilermakers, who have never been much more than an annoying zit on the back of Notre Dame football, but instead have finally developed an offense.
It's not often that a player can achieve a first at Notre Dame, the most storied of football programs. Brady Quinn defies logic, however.
Every time in Notre Dame history that the team has thrown for 400+ yards, it has been in a loss, where the Irish went to the air in a desperate game of catch up. Several of those games were with Brady at the helm, including last year's loss to Purdue.
This week was different. We went to the air early and often, and Brady torched the Purdue secondary to the tune of 440 yards.
Brady has already put a big dent in the Notre Dame record book. He is currently well ahead in average passing yards per game (199.9, second is Powlus with 172.7) and has the record for most touchdown passes in a single game (5, against Michigan State earlier this year).
A couple other records Brady is closing in on are: consecutive games with touchdown passes (10, tying the record held by Heisman Winner John Huarte) total career passing yards (6,038, good for third behind Beurlein with 6,527 and Powlus with 7,602) total career touchdown passes (36, behind Mirer with 41 and Powlus with 52) single season passing yardage (1,621 yards through 5 games, record is 2,753 - Quinn needs to average only 189 yds/gm, or 135 fewer yds/gm than he has thus far this year, to break that mark).
In short, Brady Quinn has all but guaranteed, if he stays for his senior year, that he will break every passing record in the books.
Also, he is getting better with every start, which is important with #1 USC coming to town in 2 weeks. More than any other team that USC has faced this year, Notre Dame can hang with them in a shootout. And if USC lays an egg in the first half like they did against Oregon and Arizona State, I can assure you that they will not be able to shut down the Irish offense to allow a comeback. If USC is going to beat ND, they will have to score early and often to do so.
As for Purdue, they were just plain outmatched in this game. Coach Weis proved that he was coaching on a different level than Tiller and his cronies. Tiller attempted to turn up the offensive pressure in the second half by switching back to his old spread offense in a hurry-up, but by then the Irish were happy to settle into a soft zone defense and match each Boilermaker score to run out the clock.
The saddest thing about this game was Tiller's stubborn refusal to accept what the Boiler fans knew at half time: there was no way that Purdue could win that game. He used his timeouts on defense with 5 minutes left in the half, and kicked onside kicks after his last two scores. The saddest moment for Tiller was when his defense gave up a touchdown to the Irish second team, with David Wolke running the offense and Travis Thomas running the ball. Tiller embarassed himself and his team, and even the announcers called out Tiller for refusing to back down. Someone should explain to Tiller how sportsmanship works.
It's not often that a player can achieve a first at Notre Dame, the most storied of football programs. Brady Quinn defies logic, however.
Every time in Notre Dame history that the team has thrown for 400+ yards, it has been in a loss, where the Irish went to the air in a desperate game of catch up. Several of those games were with Brady at the helm, including last year's loss to Purdue.
This week was different. We went to the air early and often, and Brady torched the Purdue secondary to the tune of 440 yards.
Brady has already put a big dent in the Notre Dame record book. He is currently well ahead in average passing yards per game (199.9, second is Powlus with 172.7) and has the record for most touchdown passes in a single game (5, against Michigan State earlier this year).
A couple other records Brady is closing in on are: consecutive games with touchdown passes (10, tying the record held by Heisman Winner John Huarte) total career passing yards (6,038, good for third behind Beurlein with 6,527 and Powlus with 7,602) total career touchdown passes (36, behind Mirer with 41 and Powlus with 52) single season passing yardage (1,621 yards through 5 games, record is 2,753 - Quinn needs to average only 189 yds/gm, or 135 fewer yds/gm than he has thus far this year, to break that mark).
In short, Brady Quinn has all but guaranteed, if he stays for his senior year, that he will break every passing record in the books.
Also, he is getting better with every start, which is important with #1 USC coming to town in 2 weeks. More than any other team that USC has faced this year, Notre Dame can hang with them in a shootout. And if USC lays an egg in the first half like they did against Oregon and Arizona State, I can assure you that they will not be able to shut down the Irish offense to allow a comeback. If USC is going to beat ND, they will have to score early and often to do so.
As for Purdue, they were just plain outmatched in this game. Coach Weis proved that he was coaching on a different level than Tiller and his cronies. Tiller attempted to turn up the offensive pressure in the second half by switching back to his old spread offense in a hurry-up, but by then the Irish were happy to settle into a soft zone defense and match each Boilermaker score to run out the clock.
The saddest thing about this game was Tiller's stubborn refusal to accept what the Boiler fans knew at half time: there was no way that Purdue could win that game. He used his timeouts on defense with 5 minutes left in the half, and kicked onside kicks after his last two scores. The saddest moment for Tiller was when his defense gave up a touchdown to the Irish second team, with David Wolke running the offense and Travis Thomas running the ball. Tiller embarassed himself and his team, and even the announcers called out Tiller for refusing to back down. Someone should explain to Tiller how sportsmanship works.
Sunday, October 02, 2005
Week 6 Rankings
1 - Southern California - (4-0) – W 38 – 28 @ #20 AZ State
2 - Texas - (4-0) - W 51 – 20 @ Missouri
3 - Virginia Tech - (5-0) - W 34 – 17 @ West Virginia
4 - Georgia - (4-0) - Bye
5 - California - (5-0) – W [score] Arizona
6 - Alabama - (5-0) - W 31 – 3 #5 Florida
7 - Ohio State - (3-1) – Bye
8 - Texas Tech - (4-0) – W [score] Kansas
9 - Notre Dame - (4-1) – W 49 – 28 @ #23 Purdue
10 - Tennessee - (4-1) - W 27 – 10 Mississippi
11 - Florida State - (4-0) - W [score] Syracuse
12 - Miami - (3-1) – W 27 – 7 #25 South Florida
13 - Louisiana State - (2-1) - W 37 – 7 @ Mississippi State
14 - Wisconsin - (5-0) - W 41 – 24 Indiana
15 – UCLA – (4-0) – W 21 – 17 Washington
16 - Florida - (5-1) - L 31 – 3 @ #13 Alabama
17 - Penn State - (5-0) - W 44 – 14 @ #19 Minnesota
18 - Michigan State - (5-1) - L 34 – 31 (OT) Michigan
19 - Georgia Tech - (3-1) - Bye
20 - Oregon (4-1) W 44 – 20 @ Stanford
21 – Auburn (4-1) W 48 – 7 South Carolina
22 – Boston College (3-1) W 38 – 0 Ball State
23 – Virginia - (4-1) - L 45 – 33 @ Maryland
24 – Colorado (3-1) W 34 – 0 Oklahoma State
25 – Texas A&M (3-1) W 16 – 13 Baylor
2 - Texas - (4-0) - W 51 – 20 @ Missouri
3 - Virginia Tech - (5-0) - W 34 – 17 @ West Virginia
4 - Georgia - (4-0) - Bye
5 - California - (5-0) – W [score] Arizona
6 - Alabama - (5-0) - W 31 – 3 #5 Florida
7 - Ohio State - (3-1) – Bye
8 - Texas Tech - (4-0) – W [score] Kansas
9 - Notre Dame - (4-1) – W 49 – 28 @ #23 Purdue
10 - Tennessee - (4-1) - W 27 – 10 Mississippi
11 - Florida State - (4-0) - W [score] Syracuse
12 - Miami - (3-1) – W 27 – 7 #25 South Florida
13 - Louisiana State - (2-1) - W 37 – 7 @ Mississippi State
14 - Wisconsin - (5-0) - W 41 – 24 Indiana
15 – UCLA – (4-0) – W 21 – 17 Washington
16 - Florida - (5-1) - L 31 – 3 @ #13 Alabama
17 - Penn State - (5-0) - W 44 – 14 @ #19 Minnesota
18 - Michigan State - (5-1) - L 34 – 31 (OT) Michigan
19 - Georgia Tech - (3-1) - Bye
20 - Oregon (4-1) W 44 – 20 @ Stanford
21 – Auburn (4-1) W 48 – 7 South Carolina
22 – Boston College (3-1) W 38 – 0 Ball State
23 – Virginia - (4-1) - L 45 – 33 @ Maryland
24 – Colorado (3-1) W 34 – 0 Oklahoma State
25 – Texas A&M (3-1) W 16 – 13 Baylor
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Notre Dame v. Purdue Analysis
The Irish have really settled into their offense, consistently putting up 35-45 points per game with the lone exception of the Michigan game, which is always an ugly game. At this point, there is no reason to believe that there are any teams out there (with the possible of exceptions of Virginia Tech and USC) that have the talent on defense to slow down this offense. I expect the Irish to continue scoring at the pace they have been.
The defense, on the other hand, is not as consistent, and has shown several time this year that they are susceptible to the big pass play. They are extremely good against the run, and hit harder than most other teams out there.
Notre Dame finishes its 4-out-of-5 road game stretch at Purdue this week, with the opportunity to go 4-1 over those five games, a far cry better than any of the so-called-experts ever would have thought they would be at this point in the season. I thought going in that 4-1 would be exactly the record coming out of that stretch, although I expected Purdue’s offense to be as potent as Michigan State’s turned out to be. Instead, the Boilermakers have struggled somewhat on offense with their modified spread offense / option attack. Also, Purdue pass defense has been one of the worst in the nation.
Notre Dame Quarterback and Receivers v. Purdue Secondary
Edge: Notre Dame
Notre Dame's Starters:
Brady Quinn, QB, Jr., 95-154 1,181 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT, 23 rushes, 54 yards
Maurice Stovall, WR, Sr., 15 receptions, 254 yards, 1 TD
Jeff Samardzija, WR, Jr., 21 receptions, 346 yards, 6 TD
Depth:
Matt Shelton, WR, Sr., 7 receptions, 91 yards
David Grimes, WR, Fr., 1 reception, 11 yards
David Wolke, QB, So., 1 rush, 22 yards
Injury:
Rhema McKnight, WR, Sr., 5 receptions, 69 yards, 1 TD (day-to-day, should play)
Purdue Starters:
Brian Hickman, CB, Sr., 16 tackles, 1 INT
Zach Logan, CB, Fr., 10 tackles, 1 sack, 1 PBU
Bernard Pollard, S, So., 20 tackles, 1 PBU
Kyle Smith, S, Sr., 12 tackles, 2 INT
Depth:
Paul Long, CB, So., 4 tackles, 2 PBU
Lance Melvin, S, Fr.
Brandon Whittington, S, Fr.
Purdue’s pass defense this year is as bad as ours was last year. With the possibility of Rhema being back in the lineup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 5-receiver sets if Purdue’s run defense re-appears after taking last week off. There is almost no depth to this unit, with only one backup corner. Purdue only has 5 players with statistics on the defensive secondary, which makes me wonder if they even run a dime defense. The 5-wide sets could result in pure man coverage all day long, and with our depth at receiver, this could be a key matchup problem for Purdue.
Notre Dame Running Backs and Tight Ends v. Purdue Linebackers
Edge: Notre Dame
Notre Dame's Starters:
Darius Walker, RB, So., 93 rushes, 479 yards, 2 TD, 16 receptions, 118 yards, 2 TD
Asaph Schwapp, FB, Fr. 9 rushes, 13 yards
Anthony Fasano, TE, Sr., 21 receptions, 219 yards
Depth:
Rashon Powers-Neal, FB/RB, 23 rushes, 90 yards, 4 TD, 6 receptions, 55 yards
Travis Thomas, RB, 15 rushes, 92 yards, 1TD
John Carlson, TE, 3 receptions, 18 yards
Marcus Freeman, TE
Purdue Linebackers:
1st string:
Bobby Iwuchukwu, LB, Sr., 7 tackles, 1 TFL
Stanford Keglar, LB, So., 16 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack
George Hall, LB, Jr., 22 tackles, 1 TFL, 3 PBU
2nd string:
Cliff Avril, LB, So., 10 tackles, 1 TFL
Kyle Williams, LB, Fr., 17 tackles
Dan Bick, LB, So., 9 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT
After last week’s loss to Minnesota, which saw the nation’s number one rush defense dissolve, giving up 200+ yards to Minnesota’s stud running back, Coach Tiller said that this week he’s going to start his second unit. While I’m not sure I believe him, his confidence in this unit is clearly shaken. Look for this to be an area where Charlie tests the less experienced starting backers by shifting into and out of different formations.
Notre Dame Offensive Line v. Purdue Defensive Line
Edge: Draw
Notre Dame's Starters:
Ryan Harris, LT, Jr.
Dan Santucci, LG, Sr.
John Sullivan, C, Jr.
Dan Stevenson, RG, Sr.
Mark LeVoir, RT, Sr.
Depth:
Scott Raridon, G, Sr.
Brian Mattes, G, Sr.
Michael Turkovich, T, Fr.
Paul Duncan, T, Fr.
Injury: Bob Morton, C, Jr. (will not play, should be back in 1-2 weeks)
Washington Starters:
Brent Grover, DT, Sr., 9 tackles, 2.5 TFL
Brandon Villareal, DT, Sr., 18 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack
Ray Edwards, DE, Jr., 9 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 1 sack
Anthony Spencer, DE, Jr., 4 tackles, 2 sacks
Depth:
Ryan Baker, DT, Fr., 3 tackles, 0.5 sack
Alex Magee, DT, Fr., 3 tackles
Rob Ninkovich, DE, Sr., 7 tackles, 1 sack
Eugene Bright, DE, So., 4 tackles, 0.5 sackT
he reason that Purdue had the best run defense the first two weeks of the season is stellar play by this unit. They were shedding their blocks and stuffing up holes. Last week, against a tougher O-line, they weren’t nearly as effective. I expect this unit to be effectively neutralized by our line, but I called it a draw simply because this is the only unit that has performed for Purdue, and if this D-line can play like they did the first two weeks, Darius could get a breather this week.
Purdue Quarterback and Receivers v. Notre Dame Secondary
Edge: Purdue
Purdue Starters:
Brandon Kirsch, QB, Jr., 44-84, 638 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT, 19 rushes, 81 yards
Kyle Ingraham, WR, Jr., 8 receptions, 133 yards
Dorien Bryant, WR, So., 18 receptions, 247 yards, 7 rushes, 49 yards, 1 TD
Ray Williams, WR, Sr., 2 rushes, 13 yards, 1 TD
Depth:
Curtis Painter, QB, Fr., 1-3, 15 yards
Brian Hare, WR, Sr.
Kevin Noel, WR, Sr., 1 reception, 8 yards
Andre Chattams, WR, Jr., 2 receptions, 27 yards, 1 TD
Notre Dame's Starters:
Mike Richardson, CB, Sr., 16 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 2 PBU
Ambrose Wooden, CB, Jr., 29 tackles, 4 PBU, 1 INT
Tom Zbikowski, SS, Jr., 27 tackles, 2 INT, 4 PBU, 1 forced fumble
Chinedum Ndukwe, WS, So., 19 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT, 4 fumble recoveries, 1 forced fumble
Depth:
LaBrose Hedgemon II, CB, Jr.
Leo Ferrine, CB, So., 3 tackles
Terrail Lambert, CB, So., 3 tackles, 1 PBU
David Bruton, S, Fr., 1 tackle
Kyle McCarthy, S, Fr.
Notre Dame’s pass defense has been suspect to say the least the last couple of weeks, and Purdue’s basketball-on-grass offense woulld normally be perfectly set up to challenge this unit again. However, Kirsch is more of an option-oriented QB, and Tiller has revamped his offense this year, looking to Urban Meyer’s success at Utah. That said, Purdue hasn’t completely forgotten last year’s game, and could still burn this unit, especially if Zbikowski gets over-anxious to cover the option.
Purdue Running Backs and Tight Ends v. Notre Dame Linebackers
Edge: Notre Dame
Purdue's Starters:
Jerod Void, RB, Sr., 36 rushes, 240 yards, 5 TD, 2 receptions, 15 yards
Charles Davis, TE, Sr., 9 receptions, 130 yards, 1 TD
Depth:
Kory Sheets, RB, So., 32 rushes, 195 yards, 3 TD
Brandon Jones, RB, Sr., 19 rushes, 88 yards
Dustin Keller, TE, So., 3 receptions, 53 yards, 2 TD
Notre Dame Starters:
Brandon Hoyte, WLB, Sr., 37 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 4 sacks, 1 PBU, 1 forced fumble
Corey Mays, MLB, Sr., 20 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 2 PBU, 1 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble
Maurice Crum, Jr., Apache, Jr., 19 tackles, 1 forced fumble
Depth:
Joe Brockington, LB, Jr., 2 tackles, 1 TFL
Mitchell Thomas, LB, Jr., 1 tackle
Anthony Vernaglia, Apache, So.
Steve Quinn, Apache, Fr.
Purdue’s modified option/spread attack plays right into the strength of this defense – the linebacking corps. Hoyte will by all over Kirsh like white on rice this week, and will force Purdue to beat us through the air. Purdue’s running backs and tight ends are unspectacular, but do get enough production to make this work. Kirsch, for all his supposed running skills, does not produce much on the ground game, but has excellent timing on his pitches and fakes.
Purdue Offensive Line v. Notre Dame Defensive Line
Edge: Purdue early, Notre Dame late
Washington Starters:
Mike Otto, T, Jr.
Robbie Powell, G, So.
Matt Turner, C, Sr.
Jordan Grimes, G, So.
Sean Sester, T, Fr.
Depth:
Garret Miller, T, Fr.
Nick Fincher, G, So.
Notre Dame's Starters:
Victor Abiamiri, DE, Jr., 16 tackles, 5 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PBU
Trevor Laws, DT, Jr., 4 tackles. 1 PBU
Derek Landri, DT, Sr., 8 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 1 PBU
Chris Frome, DE, Sr., 5 tackles, 1 sack, 2 PBU
Depth:
Brian Beidatsch, DT, Sr., 6 tackles, 1 sack
Dwight Stephenson, Jr., DT, Jr.
Ronald Talley, DE, So., 5 tackles, 1 PBU
Justin Brown, DE, So., 2 tackles
Purdue’s offensive line is good, but not deep. Their starting tackle is also a backup guard, and a starting guard is the only backup center. The only players besides the starting five that could see the field are underclassmen, and as the game wears on, expect the line to start getting meaningful pressure on Kirsch. Early on, though, the D-line will struggle.
Notre Dame Head Coach v. Purdue Head Coach
Edge: Notre Dame
Notre Dame's Head Coach: Charlie Weis, 1st year, 3-1
Purdue Head Coach: Joe Tiller, 8th year, 2-1 (62-37 at Purdue)
Tiller has had recent success against Notre Dame, largely due to the fact that he was simply a better coach than either Davie or Willingham. Tiller is a lot like Lloyd Carr at Michigan, in that Purdue comes into each year with high hopes and expectations, but by mid-season, Purdue is eliminated from the National Title hunt. However, unlike Michigan, Purdue inevitably goes on to fall out of the BCS picture by season’s end. You can count on Tiller to get a couple a win against a top team, but also a couple of losses against evenly matched opponents. Sadly, if the game is close at the end, you can almost always count on Purdue to lose. Weis will out-scheme, out-prepare, and out-coach Tiller, and squeak out a win.
Final Prediction:
Notre Dame 38
Purdue 27
I expect the Irish to come out and run their offense with the usual methodical and efficient success they have all year. Notre Dame will get up by a couple of scores in the second half, at which time Purdue will discover that they can pass the ball. After cutting it to a one-score game (or perhaps even a tie), their inability to stop the Notre Dame offense will spell their eventual doom, as they simply won’t be able to keep up.
The defense, on the other hand, is not as consistent, and has shown several time this year that they are susceptible to the big pass play. They are extremely good against the run, and hit harder than most other teams out there.
Notre Dame finishes its 4-out-of-5 road game stretch at Purdue this week, with the opportunity to go 4-1 over those five games, a far cry better than any of the so-called-experts ever would have thought they would be at this point in the season. I thought going in that 4-1 would be exactly the record coming out of that stretch, although I expected Purdue’s offense to be as potent as Michigan State’s turned out to be. Instead, the Boilermakers have struggled somewhat on offense with their modified spread offense / option attack. Also, Purdue pass defense has been one of the worst in the nation.
Notre Dame Quarterback and Receivers v. Purdue Secondary
Edge: Notre Dame
Notre Dame's Starters:
Brady Quinn, QB, Jr., 95-154 1,181 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT, 23 rushes, 54 yards
Maurice Stovall, WR, Sr., 15 receptions, 254 yards, 1 TD
Jeff Samardzija, WR, Jr., 21 receptions, 346 yards, 6 TD
Depth:
Matt Shelton, WR, Sr., 7 receptions, 91 yards
David Grimes, WR, Fr., 1 reception, 11 yards
David Wolke, QB, So., 1 rush, 22 yards
Injury:
Rhema McKnight, WR, Sr., 5 receptions, 69 yards, 1 TD (day-to-day, should play)
Purdue Starters:
Brian Hickman, CB, Sr., 16 tackles, 1 INT
Zach Logan, CB, Fr., 10 tackles, 1 sack, 1 PBU
Bernard Pollard, S, So., 20 tackles, 1 PBU
Kyle Smith, S, Sr., 12 tackles, 2 INT
Depth:
Paul Long, CB, So., 4 tackles, 2 PBU
Lance Melvin, S, Fr.
Brandon Whittington, S, Fr.
Purdue’s pass defense this year is as bad as ours was last year. With the possibility of Rhema being back in the lineup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 5-receiver sets if Purdue’s run defense re-appears after taking last week off. There is almost no depth to this unit, with only one backup corner. Purdue only has 5 players with statistics on the defensive secondary, which makes me wonder if they even run a dime defense. The 5-wide sets could result in pure man coverage all day long, and with our depth at receiver, this could be a key matchup problem for Purdue.
Notre Dame Running Backs and Tight Ends v. Purdue Linebackers
Edge: Notre Dame
Notre Dame's Starters:
Darius Walker, RB, So., 93 rushes, 479 yards, 2 TD, 16 receptions, 118 yards, 2 TD
Asaph Schwapp, FB, Fr. 9 rushes, 13 yards
Anthony Fasano, TE, Sr., 21 receptions, 219 yards
Depth:
Rashon Powers-Neal, FB/RB, 23 rushes, 90 yards, 4 TD, 6 receptions, 55 yards
Travis Thomas, RB, 15 rushes, 92 yards, 1TD
John Carlson, TE, 3 receptions, 18 yards
Marcus Freeman, TE
Purdue Linebackers:
1st string:
Bobby Iwuchukwu, LB, Sr., 7 tackles, 1 TFL
Stanford Keglar, LB, So., 16 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack
George Hall, LB, Jr., 22 tackles, 1 TFL, 3 PBU
2nd string:
Cliff Avril, LB, So., 10 tackles, 1 TFL
Kyle Williams, LB, Fr., 17 tackles
Dan Bick, LB, So., 9 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT
After last week’s loss to Minnesota, which saw the nation’s number one rush defense dissolve, giving up 200+ yards to Minnesota’s stud running back, Coach Tiller said that this week he’s going to start his second unit. While I’m not sure I believe him, his confidence in this unit is clearly shaken. Look for this to be an area where Charlie tests the less experienced starting backers by shifting into and out of different formations.
Notre Dame Offensive Line v. Purdue Defensive Line
Edge: Draw
Notre Dame's Starters:
Ryan Harris, LT, Jr.
Dan Santucci, LG, Sr.
John Sullivan, C, Jr.
Dan Stevenson, RG, Sr.
Mark LeVoir, RT, Sr.
Depth:
Scott Raridon, G, Sr.
Brian Mattes, G, Sr.
Michael Turkovich, T, Fr.
Paul Duncan, T, Fr.
Injury: Bob Morton, C, Jr. (will not play, should be back in 1-2 weeks)
Washington Starters:
Brent Grover, DT, Sr., 9 tackles, 2.5 TFL
Brandon Villareal, DT, Sr., 18 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack
Ray Edwards, DE, Jr., 9 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 1 sack
Anthony Spencer, DE, Jr., 4 tackles, 2 sacks
Depth:
Ryan Baker, DT, Fr., 3 tackles, 0.5 sack
Alex Magee, DT, Fr., 3 tackles
Rob Ninkovich, DE, Sr., 7 tackles, 1 sack
Eugene Bright, DE, So., 4 tackles, 0.5 sackT
he reason that Purdue had the best run defense the first two weeks of the season is stellar play by this unit. They were shedding their blocks and stuffing up holes. Last week, against a tougher O-line, they weren’t nearly as effective. I expect this unit to be effectively neutralized by our line, but I called it a draw simply because this is the only unit that has performed for Purdue, and if this D-line can play like they did the first two weeks, Darius could get a breather this week.
Purdue Quarterback and Receivers v. Notre Dame Secondary
Edge: Purdue
Purdue Starters:
Brandon Kirsch, QB, Jr., 44-84, 638 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT, 19 rushes, 81 yards
Kyle Ingraham, WR, Jr., 8 receptions, 133 yards
Dorien Bryant, WR, So., 18 receptions, 247 yards, 7 rushes, 49 yards, 1 TD
Ray Williams, WR, Sr., 2 rushes, 13 yards, 1 TD
Depth:
Curtis Painter, QB, Fr., 1-3, 15 yards
Brian Hare, WR, Sr.
Kevin Noel, WR, Sr., 1 reception, 8 yards
Andre Chattams, WR, Jr., 2 receptions, 27 yards, 1 TD
Notre Dame's Starters:
Mike Richardson, CB, Sr., 16 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 2 PBU
Ambrose Wooden, CB, Jr., 29 tackles, 4 PBU, 1 INT
Tom Zbikowski, SS, Jr., 27 tackles, 2 INT, 4 PBU, 1 forced fumble
Chinedum Ndukwe, WS, So., 19 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT, 4 fumble recoveries, 1 forced fumble
Depth:
LaBrose Hedgemon II, CB, Jr.
Leo Ferrine, CB, So., 3 tackles
Terrail Lambert, CB, So., 3 tackles, 1 PBU
David Bruton, S, Fr., 1 tackle
Kyle McCarthy, S, Fr.
Notre Dame’s pass defense has been suspect to say the least the last couple of weeks, and Purdue’s basketball-on-grass offense woulld normally be perfectly set up to challenge this unit again. However, Kirsch is more of an option-oriented QB, and Tiller has revamped his offense this year, looking to Urban Meyer’s success at Utah. That said, Purdue hasn’t completely forgotten last year’s game, and could still burn this unit, especially if Zbikowski gets over-anxious to cover the option.
Purdue Running Backs and Tight Ends v. Notre Dame Linebackers
Edge: Notre Dame
Purdue's Starters:
Jerod Void, RB, Sr., 36 rushes, 240 yards, 5 TD, 2 receptions, 15 yards
Charles Davis, TE, Sr., 9 receptions, 130 yards, 1 TD
Depth:
Kory Sheets, RB, So., 32 rushes, 195 yards, 3 TD
Brandon Jones, RB, Sr., 19 rushes, 88 yards
Dustin Keller, TE, So., 3 receptions, 53 yards, 2 TD
Notre Dame Starters:
Brandon Hoyte, WLB, Sr., 37 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 4 sacks, 1 PBU, 1 forced fumble
Corey Mays, MLB, Sr., 20 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 2 PBU, 1 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble
Maurice Crum, Jr., Apache, Jr., 19 tackles, 1 forced fumble
Depth:
Joe Brockington, LB, Jr., 2 tackles, 1 TFL
Mitchell Thomas, LB, Jr., 1 tackle
Anthony Vernaglia, Apache, So.
Steve Quinn, Apache, Fr.
Purdue’s modified option/spread attack plays right into the strength of this defense – the linebacking corps. Hoyte will by all over Kirsh like white on rice this week, and will force Purdue to beat us through the air. Purdue’s running backs and tight ends are unspectacular, but do get enough production to make this work. Kirsch, for all his supposed running skills, does not produce much on the ground game, but has excellent timing on his pitches and fakes.
Purdue Offensive Line v. Notre Dame Defensive Line
Edge: Purdue early, Notre Dame late
Washington Starters:
Mike Otto, T, Jr.
Robbie Powell, G, So.
Matt Turner, C, Sr.
Jordan Grimes, G, So.
Sean Sester, T, Fr.
Depth:
Garret Miller, T, Fr.
Nick Fincher, G, So.
Notre Dame's Starters:
Victor Abiamiri, DE, Jr., 16 tackles, 5 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PBU
Trevor Laws, DT, Jr., 4 tackles. 1 PBU
Derek Landri, DT, Sr., 8 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 1 PBU
Chris Frome, DE, Sr., 5 tackles, 1 sack, 2 PBU
Depth:
Brian Beidatsch, DT, Sr., 6 tackles, 1 sack
Dwight Stephenson, Jr., DT, Jr.
Ronald Talley, DE, So., 5 tackles, 1 PBU
Justin Brown, DE, So., 2 tackles
Purdue’s offensive line is good, but not deep. Their starting tackle is also a backup guard, and a starting guard is the only backup center. The only players besides the starting five that could see the field are underclassmen, and as the game wears on, expect the line to start getting meaningful pressure on Kirsch. Early on, though, the D-line will struggle.
Notre Dame Head Coach v. Purdue Head Coach
Edge: Notre Dame
Notre Dame's Head Coach: Charlie Weis, 1st year, 3-1
Purdue Head Coach: Joe Tiller, 8th year, 2-1 (62-37 at Purdue)
Tiller has had recent success against Notre Dame, largely due to the fact that he was simply a better coach than either Davie or Willingham. Tiller is a lot like Lloyd Carr at Michigan, in that Purdue comes into each year with high hopes and expectations, but by mid-season, Purdue is eliminated from the National Title hunt. However, unlike Michigan, Purdue inevitably goes on to fall out of the BCS picture by season’s end. You can count on Tiller to get a couple a win against a top team, but also a couple of losses against evenly matched opponents. Sadly, if the game is close at the end, you can almost always count on Purdue to lose. Weis will out-scheme, out-prepare, and out-coach Tiller, and squeak out a win.
Final Prediction:
Notre Dame 38
Purdue 27
I expect the Irish to come out and run their offense with the usual methodical and efficient success they have all year. Notre Dame will get up by a couple of scores in the second half, at which time Purdue will discover that they can pass the ball. After cutting it to a one-score game (or perhaps even a tie), their inability to stop the Notre Dame offense will spell their eventual doom, as they simply won’t be able to keep up.
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
More proof that the BCS is useless.
The latest addition to the BCS formula, replacing the venerated AP poll, who no longer wanted to be associated with this pile of dung, is the Harris poll. This laughable poll is made up of a panel of persons nominated by the 117 Div-I football programs. There are no qualifications for a spot in this poll, you simpply get nominated and accept.
I was optimistic about the Harris poll going in. I had hoped that these people would not bring a bunch of agendas to the table, as the coaches and writers certainly do. But then the first round of rankings were released.
At first glance, they don't seem that bad. USC #1 - no surprise. As a matter of fact, most of the top 25 was acceptable, except for the fact that .500 Michigan was still ranked, as was Louisville that just got smoked by pernnial powerhouse: South Florida. South Florida? And by 31 points no less.
But I can swallow all of that. I don't agree with it, but I can deal with it.
The real lunacy is farther down, in the list of other votes.
Down near the bottom, the University of Idaho Vandals got 5 votes. That means that either 5 people voted them as the 25 th best team, or more likely, someone thought they were the 21st best team in the nation.
Idaho is 0-4.
Yes, 0-4. That's not a typo. They have yet to win a game. And they haven't exactly played stellar opponents. They lost to 1-3 Washington. And 1-3 UNLV. And 1-2 Hawaii. They've handed three bad teams their lone victory this year. And there is no hope in sight.
The BCS just became even more of a laughingstock than they ever had been before.
Dammit, NCAA, just get up off of your pansy, politically correct duffs and institute a playoff. The best sporting league in the world deserves as much.
I was optimistic about the Harris poll going in. I had hoped that these people would not bring a bunch of agendas to the table, as the coaches and writers certainly do. But then the first round of rankings were released.
At first glance, they don't seem that bad. USC #1 - no surprise. As a matter of fact, most of the top 25 was acceptable, except for the fact that .500 Michigan was still ranked, as was Louisville that just got smoked by pernnial powerhouse: South Florida. South Florida? And by 31 points no less.
But I can swallow all of that. I don't agree with it, but I can deal with it.
The real lunacy is farther down, in the list of other votes.
Down near the bottom, the University of Idaho Vandals got 5 votes. That means that either 5 people voted them as the 25 th best team, or more likely, someone thought they were the 21st best team in the nation.
Idaho is 0-4.
Yes, 0-4. That's not a typo. They have yet to win a game. And they haven't exactly played stellar opponents. They lost to 1-3 Washington. And 1-3 UNLV. And 1-2 Hawaii. They've handed three bad teams their lone victory this year. And there is no hope in sight.
The BCS just became even more of a laughingstock than they ever had been before.
Dammit, NCAA, just get up off of your pansy, politically correct duffs and institute a playoff. The best sporting league in the world deserves as much.
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