My personal responsibilities prevented me from blogging for the Stanford game, but I found a few spare minutes to break down the upcoming battle against the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon.
Of all of the games on the schedule this year, this is the one that I think is the most intriguing matchup.
On the one hand, you've got a young team that is just learning how to win. After a disappointing year last year, this team is now sitting at 4-1 and on the cusp of the top 25 rankings. They've been injected with talent from a highly ranked freshman recruiting class. Also, they've been energized by the emergence of a speedy wide receiver named Tate, who has also shown some flashes in the return game as well as being a deep threat in the passing game. Their sophomore running back has shown some signs of explosiveness, but has been inconsistent. They've struggled to run the ball at times, but have made up for it with an opportunistic defense and a very good passing game. Their defense is spearheaded by a strong secondary, and an improving pass rush. They have some inconsistencies in the placekicking game, but have shown the ability to be explosive on offense, and consistent on defense.
And then there's the Irish.
That's right folks, the teams that will face off on the gridiron this week are mirror images of each other. Young, inexperienced, but loaded with talent and beginning to believe in themselves.
Should be a dogfight. Here are the keys to victory:
Protect the football.
North Carolina's offense has not been very consistent, and they were actually outgained last week by Connecticut.
However, UConn turned over the ball far too much, with three interceptions and three blocked punts.
Protect the ball, and we should be able to outscore the Tarheels.
Be patient.
The biggest difference between the Tarheels and the Irish are their defensive strategies. While the Irish like to blitz early and often, the Tarheels are more content to let their front four rush the passer and rely on a speedy and athletic secondary to shut down the pass.
Clausen needs to show that he can make good decisions, checking down frequently to his backs and tight ends. A couple of well placed scrambles, draws, and screens should help keep them off balance.
With enough patience, eventually the Tarheels will make a mistake, and then Jimmy can burn them deep. If he pushes too much,, too soon (especially if we get down early), that could spell trouble.
Win the field position battle.
In a game where patience and taking what the defense gives is key, we must play a sound field position game, taking advantage of our superb coverage units to contain Tate on kick and punt returns, and develop a more consistent return game of our own.
*****
Assuming the Irish play within themselves and don't make too many mistakes, we should be able to pull out a close win in this one. Start turning the ball over in our own territory or in the red zone like we did against MSU, and it could be a long day.
North Carolina is ranked for the first time since 2001, and all of the pressure is on them to live up to the ranking, especially since they are playing at home.
The Irish were never expected to be sitting at 4-1, and have nothing to lose.
I expect the Irish to come out loose and get off to a quick start before settling into an almost West-Coast style of dink-and-dunk offense.
Carolina will battle and make it close in the end.
Prediction:
Notre Dame 31
North Carolina 28
F/2OT
Friday, October 10, 2008
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Breaking down the Keys to Victory: Purdue beatdown edition
Win the coverage battle on special teams.
We had the nation's best kick return team going against the nation's best kick coverage unit, and it wasn't even close. The opening kickoff got returned to the 15 by Purdue, and it didn't get much better for Purdue after that.
And lest you start touting that kick coverage is not that important, consider the fact that Notre Dame had only 3 kicks returned past the 20 yard line on Saturday, and two of those drives went for touchdowns. The other 4 kickoffs of the Irish were tackled inside the 20, and none of those drives resulted in points.
There was only one punt return by Purdue, which went a mere 9 yards.
On the flip side, Armando Allen showed some improvement in our returns, returning 4 kicks for over 100 yards, a 26.25 yard per return average. To contrast, the mighty Kory Sheets had 7 returns for only 97 yards, an average of only 13.8 yards per return.
Average starting field position: Notre Dame +8 yards
Find a tight end to utilize on offense.
Kyle Rudolph showed up in the game this week, catching 3 passes for 32 yards and 1 TD. More importantly, he finally showed some skills as a blocker, sealing off the outside for both of Armando Allen's big runs in the first drive of the 3rd quarter, including the 16 yard touchdown romp.
Dink-and-dunk our way to victory.
The Irish offense sputtered early, as the Irish tried to air it out on the first drive, with no success. Then the Irish settled down, and started to run the ball, but got bottled up at the line of scrimmage after some early success.
Then Jimmy started throwing some underneath routes, including slants and curls to Grimes and Floyd, which opened up running lanes for Armando Allen, resulting in our most successful drive of the first half, finishing with a missed field goal.
The next offensive drive, Jimmy aired it out a bit, effectively moving the ball down the field in big chunks down to the 10. A fade route to Golden finished the scoring.
When the offense really started clicking in the second half, the balanced and methodical attack mixing the run and the pass, the Irish attack had three straight scoring drives. The first featured a long pass, a screen, and three runs to move 80 yards.
The next drive epitomized the type of dink and dunk offense I anticipated. It started with an incomplete underneath route, which opened up a running lane for Armando on the nexy play. That was followed by a dump off to Armando underneath, followed by another run, then a short out route, then a run, then a WR screen, then a comeback route underneath, then another run, then a QB sneak. It was capped off by a play action pass that sucked in everyone, opening Rudolph in the back of the end zone. Using the underneath routes to set up the runs, and then using the play action to hurt them over the top.
This is, and should be, the identity of our offense.
All of those runs and underneath routes paid dividends on the final touchdown drive, when the Irish had full command of the Purdue defense, who was playing on their heels, with no idea what was to come next. They sent a cover zero blitz, and Jimmy made them pay with a long pass over the middle to Grimes.
Pressure SACK the QB.
This is the only key that the Irish didn't achieve on Saturday, and is something I would desperately like to see us improve on going forward. There was an effective pass rush, but it was not fast enough to get to Painter before he could get rid of the ball. It did force Purdue into a short yardage passing offense, but it also permitted Painter to throw for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns.
If we could have achieved this fourth key to victory, we would've won the game by 40.
All in all, I think the Irish passed the test with flying colors against Purdue, and should be gaining confidence as they head into this week's showdown with the might trees of Stanford.
We had the nation's best kick return team going against the nation's best kick coverage unit, and it wasn't even close. The opening kickoff got returned to the 15 by Purdue, and it didn't get much better for Purdue after that.
And lest you start touting that kick coverage is not that important, consider the fact that Notre Dame had only 3 kicks returned past the 20 yard line on Saturday, and two of those drives went for touchdowns. The other 4 kickoffs of the Irish were tackled inside the 20, and none of those drives resulted in points.
There was only one punt return by Purdue, which went a mere 9 yards.
On the flip side, Armando Allen showed some improvement in our returns, returning 4 kicks for over 100 yards, a 26.25 yard per return average. To contrast, the mighty Kory Sheets had 7 returns for only 97 yards, an average of only 13.8 yards per return.
Average starting field position: Notre Dame +8 yards
Find a tight end to utilize on offense.
Kyle Rudolph showed up in the game this week, catching 3 passes for 32 yards and 1 TD. More importantly, he finally showed some skills as a blocker, sealing off the outside for both of Armando Allen's big runs in the first drive of the 3rd quarter, including the 16 yard touchdown romp.
Dink-and-dunk our way to victory.
The Irish offense sputtered early, as the Irish tried to air it out on the first drive, with no success. Then the Irish settled down, and started to run the ball, but got bottled up at the line of scrimmage after some early success.
Then Jimmy started throwing some underneath routes, including slants and curls to Grimes and Floyd, which opened up running lanes for Armando Allen, resulting in our most successful drive of the first half, finishing with a missed field goal.
The next offensive drive, Jimmy aired it out a bit, effectively moving the ball down the field in big chunks down to the 10. A fade route to Golden finished the scoring.
When the offense really started clicking in the second half, the balanced and methodical attack mixing the run and the pass, the Irish attack had three straight scoring drives. The first featured a long pass, a screen, and three runs to move 80 yards.
The next drive epitomized the type of dink and dunk offense I anticipated. It started with an incomplete underneath route, which opened up a running lane for Armando on the nexy play. That was followed by a dump off to Armando underneath, followed by another run, then a short out route, then a run, then a WR screen, then a comeback route underneath, then another run, then a QB sneak. It was capped off by a play action pass that sucked in everyone, opening Rudolph in the back of the end zone. Using the underneath routes to set up the runs, and then using the play action to hurt them over the top.
This is, and should be, the identity of our offense.
All of those runs and underneath routes paid dividends on the final touchdown drive, when the Irish had full command of the Purdue defense, who was playing on their heels, with no idea what was to come next. They sent a cover zero blitz, and Jimmy made them pay with a long pass over the middle to Grimes.
This is the only key that the Irish didn't achieve on Saturday, and is something I would desperately like to see us improve on going forward. There was an effective pass rush, but it was not fast enough to get to Painter before he could get rid of the ball. It did force Purdue into a short yardage passing offense, but it also permitted Painter to throw for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns.
If we could have achieved this fourth key to victory, we would've won the game by 40.
All in all, I think the Irish passed the test with flying colors against Purdue, and should be gaining confidence as they head into this week's showdown with the might trees of Stanford.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Last minute Purdue Keys to Victory
The circus is coming to town!
Yep, it's that time of year for the baton twirlers, giant drums, and general goofiness that is Purdue football.
So, with only moments left before I start my weekend, I thought I'd share my keys to victory against the Boiler circus this weekend.
Keys are similar to MSU last week - contain Sheets and make Painter beat us. But a complete rehash would be boring, so I'm going to dig deeper.
Win the coverage battle on special teams.
Purdue has a pair of supremely talented kick returners, and we have the best gunner tandem in the country.
In a matchup of strength on strength, our ability to stop the Boilers for short returns in the kicking game will create a long field for the Boilers, which should bode well for us.
Failure here, and giving Purdue a short field, could make this a long day for the Irish.
Find a tight end to utilize on offense.
The Boilers have poor cover-linebackers, and every team they have faced this year has utilized the tight end to great effect against this defense.
However, the Irish are without Yeatman after his underage drinking arrest, and it looks like Luke Schmidt may not go due to some ongoing headaches which the training staff can't seem to figure out.
Kyle Rudolph has been hailed as a great receiving tight end, although he has been suspect in blocking (unsurprising for a true freshman). We need to utilize his speed in the passing game, and take advantage of the mismatches here.
Dink-and-dunk our way to victory.
The underneath routes should be available to the Irish receivers all day long, and Clausen needs to learn some patience in the passing game, throwing slants, screens, short outs, curls, and other underneath routes to soften the defense.
Once we have had some success in pulling the linebackers back from the line of scrimmage, we should be able to run the ball.
Then, once the safeties start cheating up against the run, there should be opportunities over the top to our deep threat, Golden Tate.
I'd particularly like to see us make some attempts to get the ball to Tate and Allen in space, where they can make something happen. A couple of jailbreak screens should do the trick.
I'll probably measure our success on this one with yards after catch.
Pressure SACK the QB.
We need to get some payoff from our attacking style of defense this week, and put Painter on his derriere this week. Play fundamental defense against Sheets, and keep him from gashing us, and focus our attention into getting to Painter once we get them into passing downs.
I want to see at least 3 sacks this game for us to rattle Painter and make the Boilers ineffective.
I want him hearing footsteps every time he touches the ball.
So there you have it, our keys to victory Saturday. I've been nothing short of prophetic thus far this season, so keep an eye on these four aspects of the game on Saturday - it will be the difference this week. Good or bad.
Yep, it's that time of year for the baton twirlers, giant drums, and general goofiness that is Purdue football.
So, with only moments left before I start my weekend, I thought I'd share my keys to victory against the Boiler circus this weekend.
Keys are similar to MSU last week - contain Sheets and make Painter beat us. But a complete rehash would be boring, so I'm going to dig deeper.
Win the coverage battle on special teams.
Purdue has a pair of supremely talented kick returners, and we have the best gunner tandem in the country.
In a matchup of strength on strength, our ability to stop the Boilers for short returns in the kicking game will create a long field for the Boilers, which should bode well for us.
Failure here, and giving Purdue a short field, could make this a long day for the Irish.
Find a tight end to utilize on offense.
The Boilers have poor cover-linebackers, and every team they have faced this year has utilized the tight end to great effect against this defense.
However, the Irish are without Yeatman after his underage drinking arrest, and it looks like Luke Schmidt may not go due to some ongoing headaches which the training staff can't seem to figure out.
Kyle Rudolph has been hailed as a great receiving tight end, although he has been suspect in blocking (unsurprising for a true freshman). We need to utilize his speed in the passing game, and take advantage of the mismatches here.
Dink-and-dunk our way to victory.
The underneath routes should be available to the Irish receivers all day long, and Clausen needs to learn some patience in the passing game, throwing slants, screens, short outs, curls, and other underneath routes to soften the defense.
Once we have had some success in pulling the linebackers back from the line of scrimmage, we should be able to run the ball.
Then, once the safeties start cheating up against the run, there should be opportunities over the top to our deep threat, Golden Tate.
I'd particularly like to see us make some attempts to get the ball to Tate and Allen in space, where they can make something happen. A couple of jailbreak screens should do the trick.
I'll probably measure our success on this one with yards after catch.
We need to get some payoff from our attacking style of defense this week, and put Painter on his derriere this week. Play fundamental defense against Sheets, and keep him from gashing us, and focus our attention into getting to Painter once we get them into passing downs.
I want to see at least 3 sacks this game for us to rattle Painter and make the Boilers ineffective.
I want him hearing footsteps every time he touches the ball.
So there you have it, our keys to victory Saturday. I've been nothing short of prophetic thus far this season, so keep an eye on these four aspects of the game on Saturday - it will be the difference this week. Good or bad.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Postgame Hangover...
I'm back in town from East Lansing, and while the fans were pretty nice, the venue sucked, the game sucked, and despite a fun post-game house party, an unfortunate incident with a tree left my face looking as bad as the Irish did on the field Saturday afternoon.
Ugh.
I was right about the keys to victory, at least.
Shut down the run.
Yes, the Spartans are a one-trick pony, but that one trick is pretty darn good.
Ringer rushed for an impressive 201 yards and two touchdowns on 39 carries.
Establish the running game.
16 freaking yards. That's pathetic.
Win the field position battle.
Our average field position was the ND 29, and theirs was the MSU 32. Not a huge difference in field position, but it could have been worse. In fact, the only quarter where we won the field position battle was the 4th, which is also, coincidentally, the only time we managed to score.
This year's team is clearly better than last year's. And we have the pair of wins to prove it. But there are too many lingering problems to convince me that we'll have any kind of sustained success this year.
Until we, as a team, can effectively run the ball, we will struggle.
Ugh.
I was right about the keys to victory, at least.
Shut down the run.
Yes, the Spartans are a one-trick pony, but that one trick is pretty darn good.
Ringer rushed for an impressive 201 yards and two touchdowns on 39 carries.
Establish the running game.
16 freaking yards. That's pathetic.
Win the field position battle.
Our average field position was the ND 29, and theirs was the MSU 32. Not a huge difference in field position, but it could have been worse. In fact, the only quarter where we won the field position battle was the 4th, which is also, coincidentally, the only time we managed to score.
This year's team is clearly better than last year's. And we have the pair of wins to prove it. But there are too many lingering problems to convince me that we'll have any kind of sustained success this year.
Until we, as a team, can effectively run the ball, we will struggle.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Michigan State Keys to Victory
As my new job has limited the amount of time I have to commit to blogging, I liked the way my Michigan keys to victory post went last week, so I'm going to make it a weekly installment here, replacing my perviously verbose and far-reaching posts of my student days.
So, here are my three keys to victory over the hated Spartans tomorrow, where I will be basking in the glory of yet another Irish win tomorrow early evening (Sec. 120, Row 17 Seat 13).
Shut down the run.
More so than probably any game this season, if I had to pick just one key to victory, this is it.
Michigan State this year, unlike years past, is a one-trick pony.
There is no Plaxico Burress, Devin Thomas, or Charles Rogers in the wide receiving corps. Hoyer is no Drew Stanton. And even the mighty Ringer no longer has Jehuu Caulcrick to soften up the defense.
Shut down Ringer, and down go the Spartans.
Establish the running game.
Although we are more than capable of beating the Spartans with an underperforming running game, beating them at their own game will do several things for us. (1) It will open up passing lanes for Clausen, creating the opportunity for the big plays off of play-action. (2) It will wear down the Spartan defense. (3)It will keep Ringer off of the field. (4) It will take the hostile crowd out of the game by slowing everything down.
Win the field position battle.
Arguably our best unit on the team is our special teams coverage units, and going against a running team like the Spartans, field position becomes critical. I don't expect the Spartans to cough up the ball like their Ann Arbor cousin/wife did last week, but if Bruton and Anello can work their magic and limit returns, and we can execute good enough on offense to win the field position battle, we will win this game on the backs of the explosive potential of our offense.
So there you have it, my three keys to victory. When I sober up on Monday, I'll be back to show you all how amazingly prescient and wise I am.
Until then, I'll be incommunicado, as I have to go into East Lansing, imbibe heavily, and help kick Spartie's pasty white little ass.
So, here are my three keys to victory over the hated Spartans tomorrow, where I will be basking in the glory of yet another Irish win tomorrow early evening (Sec. 120, Row 17 Seat 13).
Shut down the run.
More so than probably any game this season, if I had to pick just one key to victory, this is it.
Michigan State this year, unlike years past, is a one-trick pony.
There is no Plaxico Burress, Devin Thomas, or Charles Rogers in the wide receiving corps. Hoyer is no Drew Stanton. And even the mighty Ringer no longer has Jehuu Caulcrick to soften up the defense.
Shut down Ringer, and down go the Spartans.
Establish the running game.
Although we are more than capable of beating the Spartans with an underperforming running game, beating them at their own game will do several things for us. (1) It will open up passing lanes for Clausen, creating the opportunity for the big plays off of play-action. (2) It will wear down the Spartan defense. (3)It will keep Ringer off of the field. (4) It will take the hostile crowd out of the game by slowing everything down.
Win the field position battle.
Arguably our best unit on the team is our special teams coverage units, and going against a running team like the Spartans, field position becomes critical. I don't expect the Spartans to cough up the ball like their Ann Arbor cousin/wife did last week, but if Bruton and Anello can work their magic and limit returns, and we can execute good enough on offense to win the field position battle, we will win this game on the backs of the explosive potential of our offense.
So there you have it, my three keys to victory. When I sober up on Monday, I'll be back to show you all how amazingly prescient and wise I am.
Until then, I'll be incommunicado, as I have to go into East Lansing, imbibe heavily, and help kick Spartie's pasty white little ass.
The Night before Battle
All was quiet along the front lines. The troops moved about with a quiet confidence and sense of purpose. Just below them, in the valley of Lansing, lay their prey - the Spartans. Known in lore for their toughness in battle, their greatest moment is a moment of defeat at the hands of a greater opponent.
The Irish hordes waiting to descend upon the morrow are a young and rowdy lot, full of youth and vigor. Some pace nervously, while others ready their arms for tomorrow's fight. While General Weis holes up in his tent drafting battle plans with his advisors, the field general Clausen wanders through the troops, an air of confidence about him that belies his relative youth.
In fact, there are precious few veterans among the troops marching into battle. There's grizzled old Crum, staunch defender and hard hitting warrior. There's Bruton, the quick and agile ranger that can outflank any opponent. Crazy old codger Kuntz, who scares his teammates as much as the opponent, and stalwart Turkovich, man beast who stands like a rock against all comers.
All of the members of this ragtag know the challenge set before them. The mighty Ringer, he of the stomping of mighty Florida Atlantic and Eastern Michigan and the wily Hoyer, he of the fair to middling pass attack, will be difficult foes.
But they are ready for the task at hand.
They know this battleground, and have emerged victorious before. They have vanquished this enemy before on their home turf. They are not the same army of old, slow and plodding, with weak defenses and archaic offensive firepower.
Equipped with the latest weapons of battle, a faster force with quick strike capabilities prepares to unleash a campaign of shock and awe on the unsuspecting Spartans in the valey down below.
Sleep well tonight, Sparta, and enjoy your dinner and wine.
For tomorrow you dine in hell.
The Irish hordes waiting to descend upon the morrow are a young and rowdy lot, full of youth and vigor. Some pace nervously, while others ready their arms for tomorrow's fight. While General Weis holes up in his tent drafting battle plans with his advisors, the field general Clausen wanders through the troops, an air of confidence about him that belies his relative youth.
In fact, there are precious few veterans among the troops marching into battle. There's grizzled old Crum, staunch defender and hard hitting warrior. There's Bruton, the quick and agile ranger that can outflank any opponent. Crazy old codger Kuntz, who scares his teammates as much as the opponent, and stalwart Turkovich, man beast who stands like a rock against all comers.
All of the members of this ragtag know the challenge set before them. The mighty Ringer, he of the stomping of mighty Florida Atlantic and Eastern Michigan and the wily Hoyer, he of the fair to middling pass attack, will be difficult foes.
But they are ready for the task at hand.
They know this battleground, and have emerged victorious before. They have vanquished this enemy before on their home turf. They are not the same army of old, slow and plodding, with weak defenses and archaic offensive firepower.
Equipped with the latest weapons of battle, a faster force with quick strike capabilities prepares to unleash a campaign of shock and awe on the unsuspecting Spartans in the valey down below.
Sleep well tonight, Sparta, and enjoy your dinner and wine.
For tomorrow you dine in hell.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Michigan Sucks. Postgame edition.
In a rare moment of prescience, I hit the nail squarely on the head in my preview post:
Okay, so I was 100% right about winning the turnover battle, as Michigan's butterfingers was definitely the biggest difference in the final score of the game, with Notre Dame scoring a whopping 28 points off of turnovers (counting the turnover on downs). I was wrong about Michigan not giving up the big play, but our backs did do a better job of holding on to the ball, not losing any fumbles in a sloppy, slippery mess.
The game turned into a good old-fashioned butt kickin pretty quick, but the kicking game was certainly crucial to our success. That tandem of Bruton and Anello made kick returns a nightmare for Michigan, as they couldn't seem to field a kick cleanly, and when they did, one of our gunners was blasting it out of their hands. We didn't need our field goal kicker, as we were extremely efficient at converting red zone appearances into touchdowns.
We did have a mistake on a fake punt, but other than that, I think we could call ourselves sound in the kicking game on Saturday.
I broke it down, and looked at every first down Michigan had in the game. Then I broke them apart into two groups: when Michigan gained a first down (or scored a TD), and when Michigan was held on downs (punt, turnover, and field goal attempts).
The average yards on first down when Michigan converted? 5.7
The average yards on first down when they didn't? 1.27
If you average in the interception return by Gray as -41 yards instead of 0, that average drops to -2.45 yards per play.
Moral: sucess on first down leads to a better success rate at killing drives.
Quirk: We were 7 for 13 stopping Michigan from converting when we held them to less than one yard gained on first down. We were only 4 for 12 when they gained more than one yard on first down.
Win the turnover battle
I'd be willing to wager a substantial amount of money that the team that wins the turnover battle tomorrow will win the game. In a defensive struggle, it's often the interception or fumble recovery that makes the difference between winning and losing. I want to see our running backs do a better job of holding on to the ball, and Jimmy be patient in the offense, as Michigan will not give him a lot of opportunities for big plays.
Okay, so I was 100% right about winning the turnover battle, as Michigan's butterfingers was definitely the biggest difference in the final score of the game, with Notre Dame scoring a whopping 28 points off of turnovers (counting the turnover on downs). I was wrong about Michigan not giving up the big play, but our backs did do a better job of holding on to the ball, not losing any fumbles in a sloppy, slippery mess.
Be sound in the kicking game
This game could very well be decided by a field goal. I'm concerned about our long snappers, as we face a tough choice between a snapper who is inconsistent and one that is consistent but undersized. I'm gaining more confidence in our kickers, but they need a clean snap and hold to have a shot at success.
Our coverage units have been very good, and I think that Anello and Bruton may be the best gunner tandem in the country.
We've been very good at blocking kicks the last few years, but that was largely due to the presence of Trevor Laws inside. I'd like to see somebody step up to the plate and get some pressure on the kicker in crucial situations.
The game turned into a good old-fashioned butt kickin pretty quick, but the kicking game was certainly crucial to our success. That tandem of Bruton and Anello made kick returns a nightmare for Michigan, as they couldn't seem to field a kick cleanly, and when they did, one of our gunners was blasting it out of their hands. We didn't need our field goal kicker, as we were extremely efficient at converting red zone appearances into touchdowns.
We did have a mistake on a fake punt, but other than that, I think we could call ourselves sound in the kicking game on Saturday.
Play shutdown defense on first down.
Too many times last week we let the Aztecs gain substantial yardage on first down, setting up long drives. I'd like to see a more aggressive stance on first down, giving up the occasional longer play in favor of shutting down the Michigan offense more often than not. With the system that Michigan plays in, 2nd and 3rd and long situations really limit their options on offense.
Also, their lack of a mobile QB should let us really pin our ears back and go after the QB when we force them into passing situations.
We CANNOT let them establish a ground game.
I broke it down, and looked at every first down Michigan had in the game. Then I broke them apart into two groups: when Michigan gained a first down (or scored a TD), and when Michigan was held on downs (punt, turnover, and field goal attempts).
The average yards on first down when Michigan converted? 5.7
The average yards on first down when they didn't? 1.27
If you average in the interception return by Gray as -41 yards instead of 0, that average drops to -2.45 yards per play.
Moral: sucess on first down leads to a better success rate at killing drives.
Quirk: We were 7 for 13 stopping Michigan from converting when we held them to less than one yard gained on first down. We were only 4 for 12 when they gained more than one yard on first down.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)