Last minute Purdue Keys to Victory

The circus is coming to town!

Yep, it's that time of year for the baton twirlers, giant drums, and general goofiness that is Purdue football.

So, with only moments left before I start my weekend, I thought I'd share my keys to victory against the Boiler circus this weekend.

Keys are similar to MSU last week - contain Sheets and make Painter beat us. But a complete rehash would be boring, so I'm going to dig deeper.

Win the coverage battle on special teams.

Purdue has a pair of supremely talented kick returners, and we have the best gunner tandem in the country.

In a matchup of strength on strength, our ability to stop the Boilers for short returns in the kicking game will create a long field for the Boilers, which should bode well for us.

Failure here, and giving Purdue a short field, could make this a long day for the Irish.

Find a tight end to utilize on offense.

The Boilers have poor cover-linebackers, and every team they have faced this year has utilized the tight end to great effect against this defense.

However, the Irish are without Yeatman after his underage drinking arrest, and it looks like Luke Schmidt may not go due to some ongoing headaches which the training staff can't seem to figure out.

Kyle Rudolph has been hailed as a great receiving tight end, although he has been suspect in blocking (unsurprising for a true freshman). We need to utilize his speed in the passing game, and take advantage of the mismatches here.

Dink-and-dunk our way to victory.

The underneath routes should be available to the Irish receivers all day long, and Clausen needs to learn some patience in the passing game, throwing slants, screens, short outs, curls, and other underneath routes to soften the defense.

Once we have had some success in pulling the linebackers back from the line of scrimmage, we should be able to run the ball.

Then, once the safeties start cheating up against the run, there should be opportunities over the top to our deep threat, Golden Tate.

I'd particularly like to see us make some attempts to get the ball to Tate and Allen in space, where they can make something happen. A couple of jailbreak screens should do the trick.

I'll probably measure our success on this one with yards after catch.

Pressure SACK the QB.

We need to get some payoff from our attacking style of defense this week, and put Painter on his derriere this week. Play fundamental defense against Sheets, and keep him from gashing us, and focus our attention into getting to Painter once we get them into passing downs.

I want to see at least 3 sacks this game for us to rattle Painter and make the Boilers ineffective.

I want him hearing footsteps every time he touches the ball.


So there you have it, our keys to victory Saturday. I've been nothing short of prophetic thus far this season, so keep an eye on these four aspects of the game on Saturday - it will be the difference this week. Good or bad.

Postgame Hangover...

I'm back in town from East Lansing, and while the fans were pretty nice, the venue sucked, the game sucked, and despite a fun post-game house party, an unfortunate incident with a tree left my face looking as bad as the Irish did on the field Saturday afternoon.

Ugh.

I was right about the keys to victory, at least.

Shut down the run.

Yes, the Spartans are a one-trick pony, but that one trick is pretty darn good.

Ringer rushed for an impressive 201 yards and two touchdowns on 39 carries.

Establish the running game.

16 freaking yards. That's pathetic.

Win the field position battle.

Our average field position was the ND 29, and theirs was the MSU 32. Not a huge difference in field position, but it could have been worse. In fact, the only quarter where we won the field position battle was the 4th, which is also, coincidentally, the only time we managed to score.

This year's team is clearly better than last year's. And we have the pair of wins to prove it. But there are too many lingering problems to convince me that we'll have any kind of sustained success this year.

Until we, as a team, can effectively run the ball, we will struggle.

Michigan State Keys to Victory

As my new job has limited the amount of time I have to commit to blogging, I liked the way my Michigan keys to victory post went last week, so I'm going to make it a weekly installment here, replacing my perviously verbose and far-reaching posts of my student days.

So, here are my three keys to victory over the hated Spartans tomorrow, where I will be basking in the glory of yet another Irish win tomorrow early evening (Sec. 120, Row 17 Seat 13).

Shut down the run.

More so than probably any game this season, if I had to pick just one key to victory, this is it.

Michigan State this year, unlike years past, is a one-trick pony.

There is no Plaxico Burress, Devin Thomas, or Charles Rogers in the wide receiving corps. Hoyer is no Drew Stanton. And even the mighty Ringer no longer has Jehuu Caulcrick to soften up the defense.

Shut down Ringer, and down go the Spartans.

Establish the running game.

Although we are more than capable of beating the Spartans with an underperforming running game, beating them at their own game will do several things for us. (1) It will open up passing lanes for Clausen, creating the opportunity for the big plays off of play-action. (2) It will wear down the Spartan defense. (3)It will keep Ringer off of the field. (4) It will take the hostile crowd out of the game by slowing everything down.

Win the field position battle.

Arguably our best unit on the team is our special teams coverage units, and going against a running team like the Spartans, field position becomes critical. I don't expect the Spartans to cough up the ball like their Ann Arbor cousin/wife did last week, but if Bruton and Anello can work their magic and limit returns, and we can execute good enough on offense to win the field position battle, we will win this game on the backs of the explosive potential of our offense.


So there you have it, my three keys to victory. When I sober up on Monday, I'll be back to show you all how amazingly prescient and wise I am.

Until then, I'll be incommunicado, as I have to go into East Lansing, imbibe heavily, and help kick Spartie's pasty white little ass.

The Night before Battle

All was quiet along the front lines. The troops moved about with a quiet confidence and sense of purpose. Just below them, in the valley of Lansing, lay their prey - the Spartans. Known in lore for their toughness in battle, their greatest moment is a moment of defeat at the hands of a greater opponent.

The Irish hordes waiting to descend upon the morrow are a young and rowdy lot, full of youth and vigor. Some pace nervously, while others ready their arms for tomorrow's fight. While General Weis holes up in his tent drafting battle plans with his advisors, the field general Clausen wanders through the troops, an air of confidence about him that belies his relative youth.

In fact, there are precious few veterans among the troops marching into battle. There's grizzled old Crum, staunch defender and hard hitting warrior. There's Bruton, the quick and agile ranger that can outflank any opponent. Crazy old codger Kuntz, who scares his teammates as much as the opponent, and stalwart Turkovich, man beast who stands like a rock against all comers.

All of the members of this ragtag know the challenge set before them. The mighty Ringer, he of the stomping of mighty Florida Atlantic and Eastern Michigan and the wily Hoyer, he of the fair to middling pass attack, will be difficult foes.

But they are ready for the task at hand.

They know this battleground, and have emerged victorious before. They have vanquished this enemy before on their home turf. They are not the same army of old, slow and plodding, with weak defenses and archaic offensive firepower.

Equipped with the latest weapons of battle, a faster force with quick strike capabilities prepares to unleash a campaign of shock and awe on the unsuspecting Spartans in the valey down below.

Sleep well tonight, Sparta, and enjoy your dinner and wine.

For tomorrow you dine in hell.

Michigan Sucks. Postgame edition.

In a rare moment of prescience, I hit the nail squarely on the head in my preview post:

Win the turnover battle

I'd be willing to wager a substantial amount of money that the team that wins the turnover battle tomorrow will win the game. In a defensive struggle, it's often the interception or fumble recovery that makes the difference between winning and losing. I want to see our running backs do a better job of holding on to the ball, and Jimmy be patient in the offense, as Michigan will not give him a lot of opportunities for big plays.

Okay, so I was 100% right about winning the turnover battle, as Michigan's butterfingers was definitely the biggest difference in the final score of the game, with Notre Dame scoring a whopping 28 points off of turnovers (counting the turnover on downs). I was wrong about Michigan not giving up the big play, but our backs did do a better job of holding on to the ball, not losing any fumbles in a sloppy, slippery mess.

Be sound in the kicking game

This game could very well be decided by a field goal. I'm concerned about our long snappers, as we face a tough choice between a snapper who is inconsistent and one that is consistent but undersized. I'm gaining more confidence in our kickers, but they need a clean snap and hold to have a shot at success.
Our coverage units have been very good, and I think that Anello and Bruton may be the best gunner tandem in the country.
We've been very good at blocking kicks the last few years, but that was largely due to the presence of Trevor Laws inside. I'd like to see somebody step up to the plate and get some pressure on the kicker in crucial situations.

The game turned into a good old-fashioned butt kickin pretty quick, but the kicking game was certainly crucial to our success. That tandem of Bruton and Anello made kick returns a nightmare for Michigan, as they couldn't seem to field a kick cleanly, and when they did, one of our gunners was blasting it out of their hands. We didn't need our field goal kicker, as we were extremely efficient at converting red zone appearances into touchdowns.
We did have a mistake on a fake punt, but other than that, I think we could call ourselves sound in the kicking game on Saturday.

Play shutdown defense on first down.

Too many times last week we let the Aztecs gain substantial yardage on first down, setting up long drives. I'd like to see a more aggressive stance on first down, giving up the occasional longer play in favor of shutting down the Michigan offense more often than not. With the system that Michigan plays in, 2nd and 3rd and long situations really limit their options on offense.
Also, their lack of a mobile QB should let us really pin our ears back and go after the QB when we force them into passing situations.
We CANNOT let them establish a ground game.

I broke it down, and looked at every first down Michigan had in the game. Then I broke them apart into two groups: when Michigan gained a first down (or scored a TD), and when Michigan was held on downs (punt, turnover, and field goal attempts).
The average yards on first down when Michigan converted? 5.7
The average yards on first down when they didn't? 1.27
If you average in the interception return by Gray as -41 yards instead of 0, that average drops to -2.45 yards per play.
Moral: sucess on first down leads to a better success rate at killing drives.
Quirk: We were 7 for 13 stopping Michigan from converting when we held them to less than one yard gained on first down. We were only 4 for 12 when they gained more than one yard on first down.

Michigan sucks.

and Ann Arbor is a whore.

It's Michigan week, and although I was disappointed at first with our performance against San Diego State, I rewatched the game and am actually somewhat encouraged by much of what I saw.

We made far too many mistakes against San Diego State, and that is what kept the game from being a blowout. A fumble inside the 5 (which I still contend was a bad call), an interception in the end zone, two muffed field goals, drive extending penalties. If not for shooting ourselves repeatedly in the foot, we could have won that game decisively.

Which brings us to this week.

We cannot afford to make those same mistakes against Michigan. Their defense is excellent, and it will be extremely difficult to move the ball, especially on the ground.

However, Michigan will likely struggle to move the ball as well, with their patchwork offense against our aggressive attacking defense.

I expect a low scoring affair which will be decided by who makes the fewest mistakes. My confidence level going into this game is far below what it was entering the season, but I still believe we are capable of beating the Skunkbears if we can limit our mental errors. This team is still young, but they have a lot of game experience, and that should begin to translate into a better football IQ eventually. Whether or not that will manifest this week remains to be seen.

Here are my keys to victory tomorrow:

Win the turnover battle

I'd be willing to wager a substantial amount of money that the team that wins the turnover battle tomorrow will win the game. In a defensive struggle, it's often the interception or fumble recovery that makes the difference between winning and losing. I want to see our running backs do a better job of holding on to the ball, and Jimmy be patient in the offense, as Michigan will not give him a lot of opportunities for big plays.

Be sound in the kicking game

This game could very well be decided by a field goal. I'm concerned about our long snappers, as we face a tough choice between a snapper who is inconsistent and one that is consistent but undersized. I'm gaining more confidence in our kickers, but they need a clean snap and hold to have a shot at success.
Our coverage units have been very good, and I think that Anello and Bruton may be the best gunner tandem in the country.
We've been very good at blocking kicks the last few years, but that was largely due to the presence of Trevor Laws inside. I'd like to see somebody step up to the plate and get some pressure on the kicker in crucial situations.

Play shutdown defense on first down.

Too many times last week we let the Aztecs gain substantial yardage on first down, setting up long drives. I'd like to see a more aggressive stance on first down, giving up the occasional longer play in favor of shutting down the Michigan offense more often than not. With the system that Michigan plays in, 2nd and 3rd and long situations really limit their options on offense.
Also, their lack of a mobile QB should let us really pin our ears back and go after the QB when we force them into passing situations.
We CANNOT let them establish a ground game.

If we can accomplish those three things, I think that we have an excellent chance of beating Michigan and giving this team some credibility going into Lansing next week (I'll be at next week's game!)

Prediction:

Notre Dame 17
Michigan 14

PANIC BUTTON

After watching the Irish eke out a win against the San Diego State Aztecs this week, my hand is poised over the giant red panic button in my brain going into this week's matchup with Michigan.

there are certain things I wanted to see out of this team, and some of them I did, others I didn't. And from a purely on-paper standpoint, this team looks somewhat improved from last year.

That said, we were dangerously close to going down two scores late in the game to San Diego frickin' State University.

I'm not pushing the button quite yet, but if there isn't marked improvement between last week and this week, well... let's just say that my support for Coach Weis hangs in the balance.

I did see much improved pass protection, albeit it was against a severely depleted defensive line. And I did NOT see the "pound it" attitude that Coach Weis promised in the offseason. Which should have been on proud display against the aforementioned depleted Aztecs front four.

I did see more accurate passing, and more deep passes than last year's dink-and-dunk offense. But I did not see anyone truly emerge as a "breakaway" type player. Tate showed some more promise, as did true frosh Floyd. I'm about to give up on Armando Allen as a breakaway threat - he just doesn't have the vision.

I did see an aggressive, attacking defense. I did NOT see the shutdown secondary I remembered from last year.

All told, I'm giving this team a C- for their performance against SDSU. Passing (we did get a W, something I no longer take for granted after last year), but just barely.

And so this week brings us to a turning point for the program.

Michigan sucks. They may have their worst team in the past generation this year. No QB, no real running threats.

But they do have a talneted defense.

If we can move the ball and put up some points en route to a victory, I'll chalk up SDSU to first game jitters and shaking off the rust from last year.

If we can't beat the Skunkbears in our own backyard, with them fielding their worst team in decades, I'm ready to throw in the towel on Coach Weis.

Pressure's on. It's put up or shut up time.