The game is a mere 48 hours away, and I have cleared some time in my schedule to give my impressions going into the Sugar Bowl.
The first thing that needs to be mentioned about this LSU team is the dichotomy between the LSU team at home and the LSU team on the road. The scores of their home games are: 45-3, 45-3, 49-7, 48-17, 49-0, 38-6, 28-14, and 23-20 (OT), with the close overtime game coming against Ole Miss, who shut down the LSU run game. On the road, LSU scores looked like this: 3-7 (L) 10-23 (L), 28-24, 31-26. All fairly close games or losses.
We need to make this a road game for the Tigers. The Notre Dame faithful need to travel as well as they ever have, and neutralize the potential for this to be a home game for the Tigers.
The second key, as alluded to above, is that we need to stop their run. Everyone in the media is focusing on the three senior speedster receivers for LSU and the accuracy of Louisiana demi-god JaMarcus Russell (QB). However, the LSU rushing attack is what makes their passing game tick, and LSU usually comes out of the gate trying to establish the run, falling back to the pass only if they fall behind.
If LSU runs well early, Nedu and Zibby will have to cheat up to the line of scrimmage to stop their stable of monster running backs (every one of 'em over 225 lbs.). Once we lose our safety support to the play action fake, it is all but over for the Irish. However, if the D-lineman and linebackers can neutralize the running game LSU will not beat us with the pass.
These receivers are good, but Mannningham, Jarrett, and Johnson they are not. The success of their receiving corps is rooted in their ability to spread the ball around - all 3 receivers have between 50 and 60 catches on the year. We need to be able to stay in a nickel package with 3 corners and 2 safeties behind, and neutralize the rush with 4 down linemen and 2 linebackers.
Much has been made of the LSU defense in this game, but I don't think LSU has seen a team with as many options and which operates at such high efficiency as a Weis offense executed by Brady Quinn. We will not score 50, but I'm confident we can get into the 30s if we don't make too many mistakes and can give Brady any time to throw.
We will probably see a lot of draws and screens to counteract the pressure from LSU's defensive line. LSU doesn't blitz very often, because they get so much pressure from their down linemen. This gives them a couple extra pass defenders, which led to their gaudy pass defense numbers. We need to keep their front four pass rush off of Brady, which would force them into a blitzing scheme which Brady can pick apart.
A healthy John Carlson could make the difference in this game. We missed him sorely in the loss to USC, and his return will give us an edge against the linebackers at LSU, which would also relieve some of the pressure on the O-line.
Essentially, Notre Dame needs to get into a rhythm on offense and defense to beat this LSU team, much like they did against Penn State earlier this season. If we can execute reasonably well on both sides of the ball, we can win this game. However, if we struggle in any aspect of the game, we will get beaten. LSU does not have to play their best game to beat us, but we do need to play our best game to beat them.
We do have one decided advantage in this game - coaching. Les Miles is a very good coach, but he has a bad habit of micromanaging his coordinators, leading to a more conservative game plan and less responsive and effective adjustments. Coach Weis is probably the best in the game at in-game adjustments, and this should lead to some golden opportunities for our players.
Ultimately, I think that this game means more to us than it does to LSU. Brady, Jeff, Rhema, Vic, and Ryan all play their last game in an Irish uniform before starting careers in the NFL (or MLB). Having gotten to know the character of Brady over the past few years, I know he is studying hard for this game, and he will not come out hesitant or emotional. He wants this last opportunity to redeem his career at Notre Dame, having fallen short of his national championship aspirations. Further, Brady has a golden opportunity to cement his position at the front of the NFL draft with a solid performance against such a highly ranked pass defense. Coach Weis wants this, too. He has heard too long about Notre Dame not having a signature victory, and while he could care less about the press, he certainly hears some of the same refrains in recruiting, as other coaches try to knock us down.
With a win against LSU, Notre Dame will simultaneously exorcise the bowl game demon that has been plaguing us over the past decade, and Weis can probably leverage such a win into arguably the best recruiting class in history. Quinn can cement his position as the golden boy savior of Notre Dame football, and the best pro QB prospect coming out of college since Elway. Also, this defense can get some much needed respect by controlling such an efficient passing offense.
With a loss, recruitimg will suffer a little bit (we'll have a top 5 class, but not a consensus #1 class). We'll take sole possession of the longest bowl losing streak in history. And Weis' coaching ability will come into question a little bit if he appears to be outcoached by Les Miles. Weis' last four losses have come to Carroll (2 championships), Carr (1 championship), and Tressel (1 championship, playing for another). But a loss to Miles would bring into question his much proclaimed ability to gameplan effectively.
Ultimately, I think that the intangibles that Coach Weis and Brady Quinn bring to the game will allow us to overcome the challenges that LSU presents. I think we'll struggle a little bit early on, but I expect that at the end of the game, the ball will be in Brady's hands with the game on the line.
And once that happens, it's all over but the celebrating.
Final Prediction:
Notre Dame 31
LSU 28
Monday, January 01, 2007
Sunday, December 24, 2006
DiNardo = failure
Gerry DiNardo was a GREAT player at the University of Notre Dame, helping the Irish win the 1973 National Championship. The University opened up lots of doors for him, and after his playing career, DiNardo was given the opportunity to coach football, eventually becoming the offensive coordinator at Colorado under Bill McCartney, where the Buffaloes won a National Championship.
Then DiNardo was put in charge of a program.
He failed at Vanderbilt (never went to a bowl game). Despite this, he got hired by LSU. He failed at LSU, getting fired after 5 seasons, taking a good team and turning them into a rebuilding project for Nick Saban. He got hired by the XFL, going a pitiful 2-8, worst in the league, before the league folded after 1 season. Indiana University, desperate for a middling to decent head coach of a floundering program, hired DiNardo. He failed at IU, never winning more than 3 games in a season. With no self-respecting school wanting to go near him as a coach, he became a sportscaster.
Now, he's failed at that, too.
An education at the University of Notre Dame can only take you so far. After leaving the University, it is up to the individual to be a "Notre Dame man" (or woman). DiNardo lost focus of this, and as a result he has shamed himself and the University which gave him the opportunities that he has so selfishly squandered.
In the South Bend Tribune, DiNardo (who is calling the Sugar Bowl for ESPN radio - as of now) lashed out at the University, spouting the company line over at ESPN - Notre Dame has sold its soul for football glory, they don't play a difficult schedule (you've heard it a million times - "They won the Commander-in-Chiaf's trophy, but have no signature wins."), they disgraced their image by extending Coach Weis' contract less than a year into his tenure, they were wrong to fire Davie and Willingham. In fact, his criticisms were so unlike those of Mark May, I'm beginning to think that ESPN is a cancer that literally eats people alive as soon as they become associated with the franchise.
Even loyal Notre Dame men such as Mike Golic and Lou Holtz occasionally get sucked down into the quagmire of ESPN, although both consistently try to rise above it and represent the University. Apparently, DiNardo has not even attempted to struggle against his descent into ESPN (aka Hell). Much like Lee Corso and Bob Davie, he is shamelessly trying to leverage his failed coaching career, touting himself as an "expert" analyst. Hell, I know more about college football than all three of those boobs combined, and I still wouldn't purport to claim "expert" status.
DiNardo owes his University more than this. He should issue a public apology on ESPN Sportscenter, resign from calling the Sugar Bowl, and come crawling back to the University and beg at Coach Weis, Kevin White, and Father Jenkins' feet for forgiveness. Then he should commit seppuku.
What a disgrace.
Then DiNardo was put in charge of a program.
He failed at Vanderbilt (never went to a bowl game). Despite this, he got hired by LSU. He failed at LSU, getting fired after 5 seasons, taking a good team and turning them into a rebuilding project for Nick Saban. He got hired by the XFL, going a pitiful 2-8, worst in the league, before the league folded after 1 season. Indiana University, desperate for a middling to decent head coach of a floundering program, hired DiNardo. He failed at IU, never winning more than 3 games in a season. With no self-respecting school wanting to go near him as a coach, he became a sportscaster.
Now, he's failed at that, too.
An education at the University of Notre Dame can only take you so far. After leaving the University, it is up to the individual to be a "Notre Dame man" (or woman). DiNardo lost focus of this, and as a result he has shamed himself and the University which gave him the opportunities that he has so selfishly squandered.
In the South Bend Tribune, DiNardo (who is calling the Sugar Bowl for ESPN radio - as of now) lashed out at the University, spouting the company line over at ESPN - Notre Dame has sold its soul for football glory, they don't play a difficult schedule (you've heard it a million times - "They won the Commander-in-Chiaf's trophy, but have no signature wins."), they disgraced their image by extending Coach Weis' contract less than a year into his tenure, they were wrong to fire Davie and Willingham. In fact, his criticisms were so unlike those of Mark May, I'm beginning to think that ESPN is a cancer that literally eats people alive as soon as they become associated with the franchise.
Even loyal Notre Dame men such as Mike Golic and Lou Holtz occasionally get sucked down into the quagmire of ESPN, although both consistently try to rise above it and represent the University. Apparently, DiNardo has not even attempted to struggle against his descent into ESPN (aka Hell). Much like Lee Corso and Bob Davie, he is shamelessly trying to leverage his failed coaching career, touting himself as an "expert" analyst. Hell, I know more about college football than all three of those boobs combined, and I still wouldn't purport to claim "expert" status.
DiNardo owes his University more than this. He should issue a public apology on ESPN Sportscenter, resign from calling the Sugar Bowl, and come crawling back to the University and beg at Coach Weis, Kevin White, and Father Jenkins' feet for forgiveness. Then he should commit seppuku.
What a disgrace.
Friday, December 22, 2006
I have returned.
With the brutality of this year's final exams firmly in my rearview mirror and my sanity glued back together, I cna finally return to the blogosphere, and there is plenty to discuss.
First of all, I must say that I truly enjoy the subtle confidence of Coach Weis. He got some more outstanding recruits, all 4 and 5 star guys (except Dever, I think he might be an underrated 3-star). Also, he filled some gaping needs, getting a commit from one of the nation's top defensive tackles, Ian Williams. He is cruising along in recruiting, and lest we get concerned about guys like Benn and Wilson going to Illinois (WTF? Illinois? Zook must have some powerful rose-colored glasses...) Coach Weis has assured us of two things - (1) our fifth year guys will be back and (2) we've got some wicked good silent commits in recruiting.
Ronald Talley, who left the team earlier this year, ended up at the Delaware Blue Hens, where he has proceeded to bash his former team. Apparently, the coaching staff suggested that Talley put on a couple of pounds and move in from defensive end to tackle, where his speed (which wasn't enough for a Div. I-A DE) would become an asset, and he would help fill a need. However, rather than being a team player, the kid jumped ship. Even that is fine, until he decides to come out in the press and start ripping his former coaching staff. As far as I'm concerned, the kid is persona non grata in the Bend from here on out. Have fun in Delaware, Talley. Can you say: "Do you want fries with that?"
Of course, the most pressing matter is the impending showdown with LSU, a mere 12 days away. The hype is slowly starting to build, as I've heard a few sportscasters here and there let slip that that game is the game they really want to see. Oh, people will watch the National Championship game to make sure that tO$U doesn't lose, and there will be the usual suspects who always watch the Rose Bowl (aka the National Championship consolation round). But for all the ND-haters that gripe that ND doesn't belong in the BCS (again), people have quietly been circling this game on their calendar for quite a while.
Football people, the people who like X's and O's, are intrigued by the matchup.
On the one hand, you have LSU, a balanced team offensively and defensively. The have a short play ball-control offense that will try to establish the run first, and then pass enough to keep the running lanes open - they don't attempt as many passes as other teams. On defense, they show a lot of different looks, but prefer zone coverage to blitzing and man-to-man. They rely on their speed and athleticism to make plays, and have been burned in the running game, but never in the passing game. They aren't flashy, and don't chuck the ball all over the field, preferring to play a slow, steady game through to the end.
On the other hand, you have the Irish. A flashy, high-octane passing game is the undergirder of this team. They run the ball well, mostly because Darius only has 4 guys in the box half the game, as D-Cos look for ways to keep Brady from absuloutely crushing them (unless you're JoePa, in which case you stubbornly refuse to let Darius beat you, while Quinn explodes). The running game is passable, but not top-tier. The O-line has struggled at blitz pickup this year, and they have seen a LOT of blitzes as people try to rattle Brady (Note: it doesn't work - this kid has ice in his veins). Their defense is an enigma wrapped in a conundrum wrapped in a paradox, as they are spectacular about 90% of the time. The other 10%, though, is when this defense looks lost as teams with explosive passing games burn 'em deep.
Which is why this is such an interesting game. LSU's strengths butt up against ND's strengths. Neither one has shown an ability to exploit the other's weaknesses. It will be the nation's 3rd ranked pass defense against the nation's 10th best passing offense, by a fair margin the best passing offense LSU has faced this year, as well as the best passing defense the Irish have faced this year. LSU's pass offense has been very good, but it is not their bread and butter, and they don't chuck it deep dow the field, usually throwing on third and long to get a first down (which they do very well) but they don't air it out (until they fall behind). So they won't really challenge Notre Dame's glaring weakness, in coverage.
This will be a war of attrition, and in a game which will be grind-it-out close all the way through, the team with the better quarterback wins.
The X factor: Location - this is essentially a home game for the Tigers, and they don't often lose at home. Notre Dame doesn't often lose on the road. Something's got to give.
First of all, I must say that I truly enjoy the subtle confidence of Coach Weis. He got some more outstanding recruits, all 4 and 5 star guys (except Dever, I think he might be an underrated 3-star). Also, he filled some gaping needs, getting a commit from one of the nation's top defensive tackles, Ian Williams. He is cruising along in recruiting, and lest we get concerned about guys like Benn and Wilson going to Illinois (WTF? Illinois? Zook must have some powerful rose-colored glasses...) Coach Weis has assured us of two things - (1) our fifth year guys will be back and (2) we've got some wicked good silent commits in recruiting.
Ronald Talley, who left the team earlier this year, ended up at the Delaware Blue Hens, where he has proceeded to bash his former team. Apparently, the coaching staff suggested that Talley put on a couple of pounds and move in from defensive end to tackle, where his speed (which wasn't enough for a Div. I-A DE) would become an asset, and he would help fill a need. However, rather than being a team player, the kid jumped ship. Even that is fine, until he decides to come out in the press and start ripping his former coaching staff. As far as I'm concerned, the kid is persona non grata in the Bend from here on out. Have fun in Delaware, Talley. Can you say: "Do you want fries with that?"
Of course, the most pressing matter is the impending showdown with LSU, a mere 12 days away. The hype is slowly starting to build, as I've heard a few sportscasters here and there let slip that that game is the game they really want to see. Oh, people will watch the National Championship game to make sure that tO$U doesn't lose, and there will be the usual suspects who always watch the Rose Bowl (aka the National Championship consolation round). But for all the ND-haters that gripe that ND doesn't belong in the BCS (again), people have quietly been circling this game on their calendar for quite a while.
Football people, the people who like X's and O's, are intrigued by the matchup.
On the one hand, you have LSU, a balanced team offensively and defensively. The have a short play ball-control offense that will try to establish the run first, and then pass enough to keep the running lanes open - they don't attempt as many passes as other teams. On defense, they show a lot of different looks, but prefer zone coverage to blitzing and man-to-man. They rely on their speed and athleticism to make plays, and have been burned in the running game, but never in the passing game. They aren't flashy, and don't chuck the ball all over the field, preferring to play a slow, steady game through to the end.
On the other hand, you have the Irish. A flashy, high-octane passing game is the undergirder of this team. They run the ball well, mostly because Darius only has 4 guys in the box half the game, as D-Cos look for ways to keep Brady from absuloutely crushing them (unless you're JoePa, in which case you stubbornly refuse to let Darius beat you, while Quinn explodes). The running game is passable, but not top-tier. The O-line has struggled at blitz pickup this year, and they have seen a LOT of blitzes as people try to rattle Brady (Note: it doesn't work - this kid has ice in his veins). Their defense is an enigma wrapped in a conundrum wrapped in a paradox, as they are spectacular about 90% of the time. The other 10%, though, is when this defense looks lost as teams with explosive passing games burn 'em deep.
Which is why this is such an interesting game. LSU's strengths butt up against ND's strengths. Neither one has shown an ability to exploit the other's weaknesses. It will be the nation's 3rd ranked pass defense against the nation's 10th best passing offense, by a fair margin the best passing offense LSU has faced this year, as well as the best passing defense the Irish have faced this year. LSU's pass offense has been very good, but it is not their bread and butter, and they don't chuck it deep dow the field, usually throwing on third and long to get a first down (which they do very well) but they don't air it out (until they fall behind). So they won't really challenge Notre Dame's glaring weakness, in coverage.
This will be a war of attrition, and in a game which will be grind-it-out close all the way through, the team with the better quarterback wins.
The X factor: Location - this is essentially a home game for the Tigers, and they don't often lose at home. Notre Dame doesn't often lose on the road. Something's got to give.
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
College Playoff System
All of the whining about the BCS has led me to create a fair and equitable playoff system that meets the concerns about extending the season and removing all complaints about the current system.
Here is how my system would play out for this season, with my picks (or actual winners) in bold:
Week 1: Championship Week
- require all major BCS bowls to have a championship game
- this is the first round of the playoffs
ACC Championship game: Wake Forest vs. Georgia Tech
Big East Championship game: Louisville vs. West Virginia
Big Ten Championship game: Ohio State vs. Michigan/Wisconsin
Big 12 Championship game: Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
Pac-10 Championship game: Southern Cal vs. California
SEC Championship Game: Florida vs. Arkansas
Independence Bowl: Independent/BCS at-large Notre Dame vs. Non-BCS #1 Boise State
Capital One Bowl: BCS at-large LSU vs. Non-BCS #2 Texas Christian
Second Round
- played over Christmas
Cotton Bowl: SEC Champion vs. Big 12 Champion
Florida vs. Oklahoma
Gator Bowl: Independence Bowl Champion vs. Big Ten Champion
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State [OK, I'm a little biased...]
Fiesta Bowl: ACC Champion vs. Capital One Bowl Champion
Wake Forest vs. LSU
Orange Bowl: Big East Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
Louisville vs. Southern Cal
Third Round
- played over New Year's
Rose Bowl: Gator Bowl Champion vs. Orange Bowl Champion
Notre Dame vs. Southern Cal [again, a little bias, but I would love another shot...]
Sugar Bowl: Cotton Bowl Champion vs. Fiesta Bowl Champion
LSU vs. Florida
Championship game (played the week after New Year's):
Rose Bowl Champion vs. Sugar Bowl Champion
Notre Dame vs. Florida
This system allows the remaining bowl games to remain in place, comprising the teams that are bowl eligible that did not get into the playoffs. Under this system, the only people who currently play in bowls but will not are the losers of the Conference championship games.
The games are all played during traditional bowl times, except some New Year's bowls are being moved to Christmas. The other bowls could be used to fill up the season between Championship week and the second round.
There are no complaints from non-BCS schools, as they get two slots (from five conferences). There may be some complaints about who gets the at-large BCS slots, but this system had the same number of at-large spots this year as the BCS bowls did, so I subbed in the same teams. This allows the team that didn't win their conference but were really good (ala LSU) to get a shot at the championship.
It maintains traditional bowl matchups in most seasons (SEC-Big 12 Cotton; Big 10-Pac-10 Rose, etc.).
And, most importantly, it gets decided on the field.
Now we just need to make it happen.
Here is how my system would play out for this season, with my picks (or actual winners) in bold:
Week 1: Championship Week
- require all major BCS bowls to have a championship game
- this is the first round of the playoffs
ACC Championship game: Wake Forest vs. Georgia Tech
Big East Championship game: Louisville vs. West Virginia
Big Ten Championship game: Ohio State vs. Michigan/Wisconsin
Big 12 Championship game: Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
Pac-10 Championship game: Southern Cal vs. California
SEC Championship Game: Florida vs. Arkansas
Independence Bowl: Independent/BCS at-large Notre Dame vs. Non-BCS #1 Boise State
Capital One Bowl: BCS at-large LSU vs. Non-BCS #2 Texas Christian
Second Round
- played over Christmas
Cotton Bowl: SEC Champion vs. Big 12 Champion
Florida vs. Oklahoma
Gator Bowl: Independence Bowl Champion vs. Big Ten Champion
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State [OK, I'm a little biased...]
Fiesta Bowl: ACC Champion vs. Capital One Bowl Champion
Wake Forest vs. LSU
Orange Bowl: Big East Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
Louisville vs. Southern Cal
Third Round
- played over New Year's
Rose Bowl: Gator Bowl Champion vs. Orange Bowl Champion
Notre Dame vs. Southern Cal [again, a little bias, but I would love another shot...]
Sugar Bowl: Cotton Bowl Champion vs. Fiesta Bowl Champion
LSU vs. Florida
Championship game (played the week after New Year's):
Rose Bowl Champion vs. Sugar Bowl Champion
Notre Dame vs. Florida
This system allows the remaining bowl games to remain in place, comprising the teams that are bowl eligible that did not get into the playoffs. Under this system, the only people who currently play in bowls but will not are the losers of the Conference championship games.
The games are all played during traditional bowl times, except some New Year's bowls are being moved to Christmas. The other bowls could be used to fill up the season between Championship week and the second round.
There are no complaints from non-BCS schools, as they get two slots (from five conferences). There may be some complaints about who gets the at-large BCS slots, but this system had the same number of at-large spots this year as the BCS bowls did, so I subbed in the same teams. This allows the team that didn't win their conference but were really good (ala LSU) to get a shot at the championship.
It maintains traditional bowl matchups in most seasons (SEC-Big 12 Cotton; Big 10-Pac-10 Rose, etc.).
And, most importantly, it gets decided on the field.
Now we just need to make it happen.
Monday, December 04, 2006
Breakdown
That sound I've been hearing from up north is the collective groans, whines, and complaints of the Wolverine Nation (aka Ann Arbor, who is a whore) for being booted out of the National Championship game.
Tell me if this sounds familiar. Team A, during their bye week, gets passed by Team B. If it sounds familiar, it's because it happened to Notre Dame earlier this season, as Auburn passed them in the AP poll during their bye week. And that was after a win.
This week, Florida pulled the same shenanigans on Michigan, who were passed in both the Harris Poll and the ESPN poll while they were sitting at home eating cheeseburgers.
So it's not like there isn't precedent.
Ultimately, I begrudgingly have to admit that the BCS worked out well this year. Instead of a rematch in the National Championship, another 1-loss team gets a shot at Ohio State for all the marbles. Although I'd like to see the title shot go to unbeaten Boise State. And see them get absolutely crushed.
NOTRE DAME BOWL MATCHUP
#11 Notre Dame, 10-2 vs. #4 LSU, 10-2
This battle between heavyweights will be the 10th meeting between the two schools, which has been a seesaw battle. The Irish won their first game against the Tigers in 1970 in an epic defensive struggle between the 2nd ranked Irish and the 7th ranked Tigers. The next year, the #14 Tigers got their revenge, upsetting the #7 Irish 28-8. In 1981, we blew out a #4 LSU team at home in Gerry Faust's first game, taking the Irish from unranked to #11 in one week. Three years later, Faust took an unranked Irish team and marched into Tiger stadium, beating the #6 Tigers 30-22, arguably the second biggest win of his career. The next year, in his last year as head coach, Gerrry Faust lost to the Tigers 10-7. Lou Holtz also got a shot at the Tigers in his first year, losing to LSU 19-2, tying the series at 3-3. In 1997, under Bob Davie, we got to play LSU twice, beating them 24-6 in the regular season, but dropping the Independence Bowl to them by a score of 27-9. The next year, we got our series edge back by beating the 10th ranked Tigers 39-36.
And so the series stands at 5-4, with Notre Dame having lost the only neutral site game in the series. LSU has been one of our toughest opponents traditionally, and this year is no exception. The Tigers come in ranked 4th in the nation, with their 2 losses coming in close gmes to #2 Florida and #9 Auburn, and big wins over #12 Arkansas and #17 Tennessee. Notre Dame comes limping in to the game after their second blowout loss, having lost to #3 Michigan and #5 USC. Notre Dame's only other win over a ranked opponent was a come from behind win against #25 UCLA.
The Tigers are #18 in total offense, and #2 in total defense. They are a fairly balanced offensive attack, and are an impressive 10th in scoring offense, which shows efficiency. They are 15th against the run, which is impressive. But they are an incredible 3rd against the pass, allowing only 145 yards per game in the air. This means that this team will challenge Brady Quinn. They are 4th in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 12.5 points per game. JaMarcus Russell is third in the nation in pass efficiency, ahead of Brady Quinn.
The Irish come in only 22nd in total offense and 45th in total defense. They are exteremly efficient on offense, however, averaging 32.42 poins per game, just behind LSU at #12. Notre Dame is an ugly #57 in scoring defense, largely due to the losses to Michigan and USC.
On paper, this looks like a Tiger win. But the Irish have a few stats that give me some hope.
They are +5 in turnover margin, and 3rd in the country in turnovers lost. LSU is even in turnover margin, and a pitiful 89th in turnovers gained. We will not turn over the ball.
Geoffrey Price is 6th in punting, and LSU doesn't even have a player in the top 96. LSU is bad at punt coverage (so are we), but we have a better punter. We can win the field position battle.
Our keys to victory:
1) pass rush - LSU averages 3.25 sacks per game, and allows only 1.5 - we have to win the battle in the trenches
2) don't give up the big play - this is a very efficient offense, and we cannot let them beat us deep we need to improve our 3rd down defense
3) play keep away - we can win field position and the turnover battle, just don't make any mistakes
4)put the ball in Brady's hands - this vaunted pass defense will not frustrate Brady if he finds time to throw. He is the best QB in the nation, and LSU will be bumfuzzled.
To be continued...
Tell me if this sounds familiar. Team A, during their bye week, gets passed by Team B. If it sounds familiar, it's because it happened to Notre Dame earlier this season, as Auburn passed them in the AP poll during their bye week. And that was after a win.
This week, Florida pulled the same shenanigans on Michigan, who were passed in both the Harris Poll and the ESPN poll while they were sitting at home eating cheeseburgers.
So it's not like there isn't precedent.
Ultimately, I begrudgingly have to admit that the BCS worked out well this year. Instead of a rematch in the National Championship, another 1-loss team gets a shot at Ohio State for all the marbles. Although I'd like to see the title shot go to unbeaten Boise State. And see them get absolutely crushed.
NOTRE DAME BOWL MATCHUP
#11 Notre Dame, 10-2 vs. #4 LSU, 10-2
This battle between heavyweights will be the 10th meeting between the two schools, which has been a seesaw battle. The Irish won their first game against the Tigers in 1970 in an epic defensive struggle between the 2nd ranked Irish and the 7th ranked Tigers. The next year, the #14 Tigers got their revenge, upsetting the #7 Irish 28-8. In 1981, we blew out a #4 LSU team at home in Gerry Faust's first game, taking the Irish from unranked to #11 in one week. Three years later, Faust took an unranked Irish team and marched into Tiger stadium, beating the #6 Tigers 30-22, arguably the second biggest win of his career. The next year, in his last year as head coach, Gerrry Faust lost to the Tigers 10-7. Lou Holtz also got a shot at the Tigers in his first year, losing to LSU 19-2, tying the series at 3-3. In 1997, under Bob Davie, we got to play LSU twice, beating them 24-6 in the regular season, but dropping the Independence Bowl to them by a score of 27-9. The next year, we got our series edge back by beating the 10th ranked Tigers 39-36.
And so the series stands at 5-4, with Notre Dame having lost the only neutral site game in the series. LSU has been one of our toughest opponents traditionally, and this year is no exception. The Tigers come in ranked 4th in the nation, with their 2 losses coming in close gmes to #2 Florida and #9 Auburn, and big wins over #12 Arkansas and #17 Tennessee. Notre Dame comes limping in to the game after their second blowout loss, having lost to #3 Michigan and #5 USC. Notre Dame's only other win over a ranked opponent was a come from behind win against #25 UCLA.
The Tigers are #18 in total offense, and #2 in total defense. They are a fairly balanced offensive attack, and are an impressive 10th in scoring offense, which shows efficiency. They are 15th against the run, which is impressive. But they are an incredible 3rd against the pass, allowing only 145 yards per game in the air. This means that this team will challenge Brady Quinn. They are 4th in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 12.5 points per game. JaMarcus Russell is third in the nation in pass efficiency, ahead of Brady Quinn.
The Irish come in only 22nd in total offense and 45th in total defense. They are exteremly efficient on offense, however, averaging 32.42 poins per game, just behind LSU at #12. Notre Dame is an ugly #57 in scoring defense, largely due to the losses to Michigan and USC.
On paper, this looks like a Tiger win. But the Irish have a few stats that give me some hope.
They are +5 in turnover margin, and 3rd in the country in turnovers lost. LSU is even in turnover margin, and a pitiful 89th in turnovers gained. We will not turn over the ball.
Geoffrey Price is 6th in punting, and LSU doesn't even have a player in the top 96. LSU is bad at punt coverage (so are we), but we have a better punter. We can win the field position battle.
Our keys to victory:
1) pass rush - LSU averages 3.25 sacks per game, and allows only 1.5 - we have to win the battle in the trenches
2) don't give up the big play - this is a very efficient offense, and we cannot let them beat us deep we need to improve our 3rd down defense
3) play keep away - we can win field position and the turnover battle, just don't make any mistakes
4)put the ball in Brady's hands - this vaunted pass defense will not frustrate Brady if he finds time to throw. He is the best QB in the nation, and LSU will be bumfuzzled.
To be continued...
Sunday, December 03, 2006
Interesting Potential Bowl Matchups
The “I wish the field would open up and swallow both teams” Bowl:
Champs Sports Bowl: Boston College v. Purdue (I’m only teasing, Bek)
The “How the mighty have fallen” Bowl:
Alamo Bowl: Previously ranked #2 Texas (#17) v. Previously ranked #13 Iowa (unranked)
The “How the mighty have really fallen” Bowl:
Emerald Bowl: Florida State vs. UCLA
The “How the mighty have really really plummeted, I mean taken a complete nose dive and shouldn’t even be in a bowl game because they have a losing record against division I-A” Bowl:
MPC Computers Bowl: Nevada vs. Miami (FL)
The Directional School Bowls:
Papajohns.com Bowl: East Carolina vs. South Florida
Motor City Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee
The “I’m 1 yard short of the BCS and I end up here?” Bowl:
Texas Bowl: Rutgers v. Kansas State
The “We’re so happy we didn’t hire you” Bowl:
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Florida
The “Let’s do this again sometime” bowl:
National Championship Game: Michigan v. Ohio State
Champs Sports Bowl: Boston College v. Purdue (I’m only teasing, Bek)
The “How the mighty have fallen” Bowl:
Alamo Bowl: Previously ranked #2 Texas (#17) v. Previously ranked #13 Iowa (unranked)
The “How the mighty have really fallen” Bowl:
Emerald Bowl: Florida State vs. UCLA
The “How the mighty have really really plummeted, I mean taken a complete nose dive and shouldn’t even be in a bowl game because they have a losing record against division I-A” Bowl:
MPC Computers Bowl: Nevada vs. Miami (FL)
The Directional School Bowls:
Papajohns.com Bowl: East Carolina vs. South Florida
Motor City Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee
The “I’m 1 yard short of the BCS and I end up here?” Bowl:
Texas Bowl: Rutgers v. Kansas State
The “We’re so happy we didn’t hire you” Bowl:
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Florida
The “Let’s do this again sometime” bowl:
National Championship Game: Michigan v. Ohio State
Saturday, December 02, 2006
UCLA beats the Trojans
After all of the crap Notre Dame got for being taken to the wire by UCLA earlier this season, those mighty Bruins with their stellar defense whooped Peetey and his Condoms, holding them to a mere 9 points.
USC suffered the same letdown against UCLA that we suffered against Michigan - coming off a big win against a bigtime program and traditional rival.
I also love the symmetry of this season, as UCLA learned how to handle the end of game situation after they lost to us in the waning seconds. And that experience game them the poise they needed to close out the game against USC.
There was no way USC deserved a shot at the title this year after losing to unranked Oregon State.
Now, the BCS gets interesting.
If I was in charge, I'd give the title shot to Florida. (I just threw up a little bit in my mouth)
As I said before, I am not a fan of rematches, and Michigan already had their shot.
That said, it looks like Michigan will get their wish and Michigan-OSU Part Deux will decide the title. (I just threw up a little bit more in my mouth)
Which means that USC will get exposed by LSU in the Rose Bowl, and we will get our Sugar Bowl shot at Meyer and the paper tigers of Florida.
I hate the BCS as much as anyone (probably more), but I gotta say that it does create some exciting late season games.
USC suffered the same letdown against UCLA that we suffered against Michigan - coming off a big win against a bigtime program and traditional rival.
I also love the symmetry of this season, as UCLA learned how to handle the end of game situation after they lost to us in the waning seconds. And that experience game them the poise they needed to close out the game against USC.
There was no way USC deserved a shot at the title this year after losing to unranked Oregon State.
Now, the BCS gets interesting.
If I was in charge, I'd give the title shot to Florida. (I just threw up a little bit in my mouth)
As I said before, I am not a fan of rematches, and Michigan already had their shot.
That said, it looks like Michigan will get their wish and Michigan-OSU Part Deux will decide the title. (I just threw up a little bit more in my mouth)
Which means that USC will get exposed by LSU in the Rose Bowl, and we will get our Sugar Bowl shot at Meyer and the paper tigers of Florida.
I hate the BCS as much as anyone (probably more), but I gotta say that it does create some exciting late season games.
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