I'm really having difficulty getting excited about this game.
Syracuse is, by far, the worst team in any BCS conference, and is in the bottom 5 of all of Division I-A with a record of 1-9. The only team they've beaten this year is one of the worst teams in I-A, Buffalo, who is also 1-9, having beaten Kent State (1-9) last week.
To give a sense of just how badly we could beat this team, they lost to Pitt by 17 points, a team we smacked around the field and beat by 21. While this doesn't necessarily mean we'll beat them by 38 (although they will, unless Charlie starts sending in the walk-ons by the early 4th quarter), it does mean that we are going to crush them. [read this article for an interesting take on this kind of illogic, proving that mighty Miami (#4 in country) could be beaten by Florida International (#163)]
There is only one matchup in this game that provides any consideration:
Notre Dame Passing Offense (5th in the nation) v. Syracuse Passing Defense (6th)
2959 yds v. 1469 yds allowed
329 yds/gm v. 163 yds/gm allowed
27 TD v. 8 TD allowed
5 INT (.5 per game) v. 11 INT (1.1 per game)
1.8 INT% v. 5.3% INT percentage (passes/INTs)
The only reason this is worth noting is the fact that there is a severe statistical discrepancy. This is not really worth noting, as teams stop passing against a team when they get ahead - other teams in the top 10 are Pitt (who we killed through the air), Buffalo (1 win), Tulane (2 wins), and East Carolina (3 wins).
Even if the numbers are legit, and the Irish passing offense struggles, Syracuse gives up almost 190 yards/game on the ground (97th in nation), so Darius will have a big day.
Notre Dame's second string could win this game. Grag Robinson, Syracuse's coach, will turn this team around and get them to be competitive again, but there is simply not enough talent there to challenge Notre Dame. Don't pay any attention to Coach Weis' rhetoric about this team having beaten us two years ago, as the Irish were emotionally beaten up and had the worst gameplan in Notre Dame's history for that game, thanks to Ty Willie and his merry men.
Look for the Irish to score early and often, taking their pass offense (5th in nation) and proving the Syracuse D to be overrated, as the Notre Dame scoring offense (7th) just keeps rolling, with the run game adding up to big numbers for the total offense (10th).
Syracuse is inept on offense, and will be unable to respond, struggling on the ground (102nd in the country) and in the air (106th), giving up the most total offense (114th) scored by the Irish this year. I'll be surprised if their scoring offense (113th) can put up any points against the underrated Irish D (77th total, 47th scoring), who have faced three of the top 15 teams in total offense.
This game will be over at halftime.
Notre Dame 49
Syracuse 0
Notre Dame puts up 35 in the first half, prompting Wolke to lead the team in the second half. If weather becomes a problem, Brady may not get to take a break until midway through the third quarter. The Irish defense gets their first shutout of the season against a team that got shut out by South Florida last week. (not Florida or Florida State - South Florida)
In the second half, Wolke gets some substantial practice handing the ball to Asaph Schwapp and Justin Hoskins, and they still stumble into a touchdown. An overzealous second-string corner returns an interception for a touchdown to round out the scoring, and Coach Weis promptly berates him for scoring, telling him to kneel the pick next time we're up by 42 so he can run more clock.
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
Notre Dame 42 Naval Academy 21
This game was similar to what I expected. Navy ran a little better than I expected, amassing 239 total yards on the ground, but this is still over 50 yards fewer than they had been averaging. The difficulty in stopping the run was their consistency; they averaged a little over 4 yards per carry, and they didn't have any big runs to skew the average (their longest was 12 yards). Also, because of their consistency, they initially went for it on 4th and short, going 2-2 on 4th down in the first quarter. However, as the game wore on, the larger defensive line started getting excellent penetration into the Navy backfield, disrupting the option offense. They only went for it one time on 4th down after the 1st quarter, and the defense stopped them.
Notre Dame's offense was predictable - they leveraged their strength and height advantages, leading to a touchdown on 6 of their 9 drives in the game. The other drives ended in a turnover on downs, an interception (surprising from Brady), and the end of the game.
The Irish leveraged their strength advantage by providing healthy doses of Walker and Thomas on the ground, amassing a total of 221 yards rushing as a team (Walker led the team with 124 yards). The Irish run game also allowed the Irish to even up the time of possession against a ball-hogging team, wearing down their defense as much as they tried to wear down ours.
Notre Dame leveraged their height advantage all day long, scoring 4 passsing touchdowns against the undersized Navy secondary. Navy made a real effort to try to shut down Jeff Samardzija, routinely double- and triple-teaming him. This, of course, left Maurice Stovall in one-on-one coverage with an undersized corner. He took full advantage, grabbing 8 balls for 130 yards and 3 TDs. Also, while Samardzija's TD catch streak was broken, as he caught only 5 balls for 42 yards, he played a crucial role in tying up the Navy secondary. Fasano caught a TD in his second straight game this week as well, which was nice to see.
Brady was consistent, going 22-31 for 284 yards and 4 TD, but also throwing his 5th pick of the season.
Navy played with a lot of heart, never giving up, even after the Irish went up 3 scores in the 2nd quarter, effectively putting the game out of reach. They wouldn't stop fighting, eventually scoring two TDs in the second half, one with only 1:17 left in the game.
The best part of the game was after the final gun, however, when the Navy players walked over to the Navy band, with the Notre Dame players standing just behind. In a great moment of patriotism, the entire stadium fell absolutely silent as the Naval band played "Navy Blue and Gold," the alma mater of the Naval Academy. Not since I was in the empty stadium about 13 years ago have I heard Notre Dame Stadium that quiet, as the entire crowd showed their respect for our men and women in uniform. It was a very poignant moment.
Notre Dame's offense was predictable - they leveraged their strength and height advantages, leading to a touchdown on 6 of their 9 drives in the game. The other drives ended in a turnover on downs, an interception (surprising from Brady), and the end of the game.
The Irish leveraged their strength advantage by providing healthy doses of Walker and Thomas on the ground, amassing a total of 221 yards rushing as a team (Walker led the team with 124 yards). The Irish run game also allowed the Irish to even up the time of possession against a ball-hogging team, wearing down their defense as much as they tried to wear down ours.
Notre Dame leveraged their height advantage all day long, scoring 4 passsing touchdowns against the undersized Navy secondary. Navy made a real effort to try to shut down Jeff Samardzija, routinely double- and triple-teaming him. This, of course, left Maurice Stovall in one-on-one coverage with an undersized corner. He took full advantage, grabbing 8 balls for 130 yards and 3 TDs. Also, while Samardzija's TD catch streak was broken, as he caught only 5 balls for 42 yards, he played a crucial role in tying up the Navy secondary. Fasano caught a TD in his second straight game this week as well, which was nice to see.
Brady was consistent, going 22-31 for 284 yards and 4 TD, but also throwing his 5th pick of the season.
Navy played with a lot of heart, never giving up, even after the Irish went up 3 scores in the 2nd quarter, effectively putting the game out of reach. They wouldn't stop fighting, eventually scoring two TDs in the second half, one with only 1:17 left in the game.
The best part of the game was after the final gun, however, when the Navy players walked over to the Navy band, with the Notre Dame players standing just behind. In a great moment of patriotism, the entire stadium fell absolutely silent as the Naval band played "Navy Blue and Gold," the alma mater of the Naval Academy. Not since I was in the empty stadium about 13 years ago have I heard Notre Dame Stadium that quiet, as the entire crowd showed their respect for our men and women in uniform. It was a very poignant moment.
Thursday, November 10, 2005
United States Naval Academy v. University of Notre Dame
This game has always been my favorite game to attend. Notre Dame is all but guaranteed to win, but the game is always hard-fought for 60 minutes and no matter the outcome, game day is imbued with a higher level of respect between opponents than any other games the Irish play.
The service academies always demand a certain level of respect, considering that the men that take that field are first soldiers, then students, and finally athletes.
But Notre Dame - Navy is more. For Notre Dame and Navy, this game has a much deeper historic meaning than other games.
From Navy's game notes for this week:
"Notre Dame and Navy first met on the football field in 1927, while Knute Rockne was the Irish head coach. But to truly understand the Notre Dame-Navy series requires a trip back to the 1940s, when Frank Leahy had the Irish on top of the football world.
"Leahy coached the Irish to a national championship in 1943, his third year as head coach, just before enlisting with the Navy to serve in World War II. Following the war, Leahy and the Irish picked up right where they had left off, going four entire seasons without a loss and claiming national championships in 1946, 1947 and 1949.
"But World War II cost Notre Dame a lot more than its talented head coach and a slew of players (including 1943 Heisman Trophy winner Angelo Bertelli). It virtually wiped out the small, all-male school. The University was having terrible financial problems, and as an all-male school with so many young men being drafted and going off to war, there was almost nobody left to attend the University.
"As part of the war effort, the Navy needed more officers than the Naval Academy was able to produce in a short period of time. So a decision was made to utilize a number of institutions across the nation in which young men would attend college and receive training to become officers. Notre Dame became the site for one such program. Not only did Notre Dame now have a much-needed influx of students preparing to become Naval officers, but the Navy also built a number of facilities on campus that served Notre Dame for years. It's safe to say that if it wasn't for the Navy and the Naval Academy, Notre Dame may not exist today."
Legend has it that, pursuant to the Naval Academy's assistance during World War II, Coach Frank Leahy and President John Cavanaugh agreed to play Navy in football any time they wanted, and sealed the deal with a handshake.
Prior to that agreement, Notre Dame had played Navy every year since 1927, and have continued ever since. The agreement is not legally binding, but the integrity of both schools is in many ways a more enduring bond than any contract.
The stark reality on the football field, however, is that Navy cannot compete with Notre Dame in the current college football landscape. The last time Navy beat the Irish was also the last time Navy fielded a Heisman trophy winner in Roger Staubach. The Naval Academy is simply not equipped to compete with the upper level competition in Division I-A, especially with the height/weight limits placed on the service academies. For example, Navy is starting the smallest offensive lineman in Div. I-A: 249-pound offensive guard Antron Harper.
However, it is worth noting that the Midshipmen are second in the country in rushing, and they operate an unconventional wishbone option attack which is difficult to prepare for. They'll fight hard all game, and the last several victories in Notre Dame Stadium have come by 2 or fewer scores, and the last visit was decided by 3 points.
Notre Dame 56
Navy 17
Here's why:
Notre Dame Defensive Line v. Navy Offensive Line
Navy: 270.4 lbs. per player
Notre Dame: 277.7 lbs. per player
At a position where defensive lineman are usually outclassed by nearly 50 lbs., this week Notre Dame's D-line will have the advantage of weight in addition to speed and power. Look for the D-line to attempt to get quick pressure up the field to disprupt Navy's timing on their option attack.
Notre Dame Skill Positions (WRs/TEs/RBs)
Calrson, TE: 6' 6"
Samardzija, WR: 6' 5"
Stovall, WR: 6' 5"
Fasano, TE: 6' 4"
Shelton, WR: 6' 0"
Thomas, RB" 6' 0"
Walker, RB: 5'11"
v.
Navy Secondary and Linebackers
Tyler Tidwell, OLB, 6' 2"
Rob Caldwell, ILB, 6' 0"
Jake Biles, ILB, 5' 11"
Keenan Little, CB, 5' 11"
Jeremy McGown, S, 5' 11"
DuJuan Price, S, 5' 11"
David Mahoney, OLB, 5' 9"
Greg Thrasher, CB, 5' 8"
Jump ball, anyone?
Notre Dame Defense v. Navy Offense
ND rush defense rank: 25th Navy rush offense rank: 2nd
ND pass defense rank: 110th Navy pass offense rank: 114th
There strengths play into our strengths, they do not play to our weaknesses; this means our better athletes will win these matchups. Finally, Notre Dame's pass defense will look good statistically.
68-9-1: the series record. There is no dominance in college football like Notre Dame's over Navy. If Notre Dame ever loses this game, I guarantee the Midshipmen will bring down the goalposts no matter where the game takes place. To put this in perspective, however, even Ty Willie, Kuharich, and Faust went undefeated against Navy. I don't expect this series to have close games again for a long, long time. Notre Dame wins big.
The service academies always demand a certain level of respect, considering that the men that take that field are first soldiers, then students, and finally athletes.
But Notre Dame - Navy is more. For Notre Dame and Navy, this game has a much deeper historic meaning than other games.
From Navy's game notes for this week:
"Notre Dame and Navy first met on the football field in 1927, while Knute Rockne was the Irish head coach. But to truly understand the Notre Dame-Navy series requires a trip back to the 1940s, when Frank Leahy had the Irish on top of the football world.
"Leahy coached the Irish to a national championship in 1943, his third year as head coach, just before enlisting with the Navy to serve in World War II. Following the war, Leahy and the Irish picked up right where they had left off, going four entire seasons without a loss and claiming national championships in 1946, 1947 and 1949.
"But World War II cost Notre Dame a lot more than its talented head coach and a slew of players (including 1943 Heisman Trophy winner Angelo Bertelli). It virtually wiped out the small, all-male school. The University was having terrible financial problems, and as an all-male school with so many young men being drafted and going off to war, there was almost nobody left to attend the University.
"As part of the war effort, the Navy needed more officers than the Naval Academy was able to produce in a short period of time. So a decision was made to utilize a number of institutions across the nation in which young men would attend college and receive training to become officers. Notre Dame became the site for one such program. Not only did Notre Dame now have a much-needed influx of students preparing to become Naval officers, but the Navy also built a number of facilities on campus that served Notre Dame for years. It's safe to say that if it wasn't for the Navy and the Naval Academy, Notre Dame may not exist today."
Legend has it that, pursuant to the Naval Academy's assistance during World War II, Coach Frank Leahy and President John Cavanaugh agreed to play Navy in football any time they wanted, and sealed the deal with a handshake.
Prior to that agreement, Notre Dame had played Navy every year since 1927, and have continued ever since. The agreement is not legally binding, but the integrity of both schools is in many ways a more enduring bond than any contract.
The stark reality on the football field, however, is that Navy cannot compete with Notre Dame in the current college football landscape. The last time Navy beat the Irish was also the last time Navy fielded a Heisman trophy winner in Roger Staubach. The Naval Academy is simply not equipped to compete with the upper level competition in Division I-A, especially with the height/weight limits placed on the service academies. For example, Navy is starting the smallest offensive lineman in Div. I-A: 249-pound offensive guard Antron Harper.
However, it is worth noting that the Midshipmen are second in the country in rushing, and they operate an unconventional wishbone option attack which is difficult to prepare for. They'll fight hard all game, and the last several victories in Notre Dame Stadium have come by 2 or fewer scores, and the last visit was decided by 3 points.
Notre Dame 56
Navy 17
Here's why:
Notre Dame Defensive Line v. Navy Offensive Line
Navy: 270.4 lbs. per player
Notre Dame: 277.7 lbs. per player
At a position where defensive lineman are usually outclassed by nearly 50 lbs., this week Notre Dame's D-line will have the advantage of weight in addition to speed and power. Look for the D-line to attempt to get quick pressure up the field to disprupt Navy's timing on their option attack.
Notre Dame Skill Positions (WRs/TEs/RBs)
Calrson, TE: 6' 6"
Samardzija, WR: 6' 5"
Stovall, WR: 6' 5"
Fasano, TE: 6' 4"
Shelton, WR: 6' 0"
Thomas, RB" 6' 0"
Walker, RB: 5'11"
v.
Navy Secondary and Linebackers
Tyler Tidwell, OLB, 6' 2"
Rob Caldwell, ILB, 6' 0"
Jake Biles, ILB, 5' 11"
Keenan Little, CB, 5' 11"
Jeremy McGown, S, 5' 11"
DuJuan Price, S, 5' 11"
David Mahoney, OLB, 5' 9"
Greg Thrasher, CB, 5' 8"
Jump ball, anyone?
Notre Dame Defense v. Navy Offense
ND rush defense rank: 25th Navy rush offense rank: 2nd
ND pass defense rank: 110th Navy pass offense rank: 114th
There strengths play into our strengths, they do not play to our weaknesses; this means our better athletes will win these matchups. Finally, Notre Dame's pass defense will look good statistically.
68-9-1: the series record. There is no dominance in college football like Notre Dame's over Navy. If Notre Dame ever loses this game, I guarantee the Midshipmen will bring down the goalposts no matter where the game takes place. To put this in perspective, however, even Ty Willie, Kuharich, and Faust went undefeated against Navy. I don't expect this series to have close games again for a long, long time. Notre Dame wins big.
Sunday, November 06, 2005
Notre Dame 41, Tennessee 21
Tennessee's defense was predictably solid, but they haven't faced anything like the Irish offense this year.
Tennessee's rush defense was solid, giving up only 48 yards on 33 rushes, for a paltry 1.4 yads/rush average. However, if you look at just the running backs the Irish gained 77 yards on 23 carries. Their pass rush was excellent, as Brady sruggled all day to find enough time to pitch the ball, getting sacked 3 times, and hurrying him all day.
Tennessee surprised me, however, with their offense. I expected us to really shut the run down, but they committed to the run, and were relatively effective - they gained over 100 yards on the ground. Their passing game was largely ineffective, however, despite our inability to rush the passer. Statistically, our pass rush was as good as Tennessee's, but Brady, on average, had much less time to throw than Erik Ainge. Ainge would routinely sit in the pocket for 7+ seconds, looking for a receiver. Despite all the time, however, he only completed 40% of his passes, and threw 2 picks.
Which brings me to what I really want to talk about - the overall complete game the Irish played. There were a couple of weaknesses, but overall the Irish executed well in all three phases of the game.
The Irish offense struggled statistically compared to what they've been able to do all year, but this is largely due to the Tennessee defense. The offense did plenty, however, scoring three passing touchdowns and controlling the pace of the game.
A couple more passing records were broken - most touchdown passes in a season, most touchdown receptions in a season, and consecutive games with a touchdown reception. At this point, the only passing records that may be safe come year's end are: pass attempts in a game (in '67, 63 passes were thrown in one game - Charlie likes balance too much for that one to fall) and yards per attempt/completion (Charlie's offense uses short passes like other offenses use the running game). Other than that, Brady, Jeff, and the rest of the receiving corps will have the rest. This includes the records for quality and efficiency, not just the ones for quantity. For example, look at: season pass interception percentage (record: .016, 4 in 250 attempts; current: .013, 4 in 299 attempts) season completion percentage (record: .638, 118 of 185; current: .652, 195 of 299).
And did I mention we have three of our five weakest opponents ahead, with all of our tough opponents behind us?
The other phases of the Irish game were clicking on Saturday as well.
On defense, our pass rush was weak, but our secondary played as well as I've seen since the Holtz era. They were consistently glued to the receivers, and didn't give up the big play - the longest completion was 23 yards. We gave up a couple of long runs, but our pursuit was excellent, and they had no long scores. We had a fumble recovery, and two interceptions, one of which was returned by Zbikowski for a touchdown.
On special teams, we were great. Tennessee averaged a pitiful 4.7 yards per punt return, and only 21.7 on 8 kickoff returns. We averaged 23.3 per kick return, and a whopping 39.3 per punt return (helped by a spectacular 78-yd TD return by Zbikowski). We were perfect on field goals and PATs.
Yes, you read that correctly, Notre Dame scored a touchdown in all three phases of the game - offense, defense, and special teams.
This was the very picture of a team effort, and puts the Irish in the position to win out, as they should be favored by double digits in all three remaining games.
Navy has the best record of the remaining opponents at 5-3, but they've lost to Stanford, Maryland, and Rutgers with no wins over ranked teams. Syracuse is the worst team we'll play, with their lone win this season coming against MAC doormat and winless Buffalo. Stanford, at 4-4, is the toughest opponent remaining on our schedule; despite an embarassing loss to Division I-AA opponent UC-Davis earlier in the season, the Cardinal has been playing better late in the season, with a near-win over then-#8 UCLA and an upset of Arizona State. None of these teams have the talent to beat Notre Dame this year, barring the sudden loss of Quinn, Samardzija, Zbikowski, Walker, Thomas, Stovall AND Fasano. And even then, our backups could win these games (remember, Wolke drove the second team down the field against Purdue's first team in garbage time to score a TD).
See you in Tempe?
Tennessee's rush defense was solid, giving up only 48 yards on 33 rushes, for a paltry 1.4 yads/rush average. However, if you look at just the running backs the Irish gained 77 yards on 23 carries. Their pass rush was excellent, as Brady sruggled all day to find enough time to pitch the ball, getting sacked 3 times, and hurrying him all day.
Tennessee surprised me, however, with their offense. I expected us to really shut the run down, but they committed to the run, and were relatively effective - they gained over 100 yards on the ground. Their passing game was largely ineffective, however, despite our inability to rush the passer. Statistically, our pass rush was as good as Tennessee's, but Brady, on average, had much less time to throw than Erik Ainge. Ainge would routinely sit in the pocket for 7+ seconds, looking for a receiver. Despite all the time, however, he only completed 40% of his passes, and threw 2 picks.
Which brings me to what I really want to talk about - the overall complete game the Irish played. There were a couple of weaknesses, but overall the Irish executed well in all three phases of the game.
The Irish offense struggled statistically compared to what they've been able to do all year, but this is largely due to the Tennessee defense. The offense did plenty, however, scoring three passing touchdowns and controlling the pace of the game.
A couple more passing records were broken - most touchdown passes in a season, most touchdown receptions in a season, and consecutive games with a touchdown reception. At this point, the only passing records that may be safe come year's end are: pass attempts in a game (in '67, 63 passes were thrown in one game - Charlie likes balance too much for that one to fall) and yards per attempt/completion (Charlie's offense uses short passes like other offenses use the running game). Other than that, Brady, Jeff, and the rest of the receiving corps will have the rest. This includes the records for quality and efficiency, not just the ones for quantity. For example, look at: season pass interception percentage (record: .016, 4 in 250 attempts; current: .013, 4 in 299 attempts) season completion percentage (record: .638, 118 of 185; current: .652, 195 of 299).
And did I mention we have three of our five weakest opponents ahead, with all of our tough opponents behind us?
The other phases of the Irish game were clicking on Saturday as well.
On defense, our pass rush was weak, but our secondary played as well as I've seen since the Holtz era. They were consistently glued to the receivers, and didn't give up the big play - the longest completion was 23 yards. We gave up a couple of long runs, but our pursuit was excellent, and they had no long scores. We had a fumble recovery, and two interceptions, one of which was returned by Zbikowski for a touchdown.
On special teams, we were great. Tennessee averaged a pitiful 4.7 yards per punt return, and only 21.7 on 8 kickoff returns. We averaged 23.3 per kick return, and a whopping 39.3 per punt return (helped by a spectacular 78-yd TD return by Zbikowski). We were perfect on field goals and PATs.
Yes, you read that correctly, Notre Dame scored a touchdown in all three phases of the game - offense, defense, and special teams.
This was the very picture of a team effort, and puts the Irish in the position to win out, as they should be favored by double digits in all three remaining games.
Navy has the best record of the remaining opponents at 5-3, but they've lost to Stanford, Maryland, and Rutgers with no wins over ranked teams. Syracuse is the worst team we'll play, with their lone win this season coming against MAC doormat and winless Buffalo. Stanford, at 4-4, is the toughest opponent remaining on our schedule; despite an embarassing loss to Division I-AA opponent UC-Davis earlier in the season, the Cardinal has been playing better late in the season, with a near-win over then-#8 UCLA and an upset of Arizona State. None of these teams have the talent to beat Notre Dame this year, barring the sudden loss of Quinn, Samardzija, Zbikowski, Walker, Thomas, Stovall AND Fasano. And even then, our backups could win these games (remember, Wolke drove the second team down the field against Purdue's first team in garbage time to score a TD).
See you in Tempe?
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
Tennessee v. Notre Dame Analysis
Due to some helpful constructive criticism from some of my readers, this week I am going to do my full analysis, but attempt to make the material a little more accessible for the less, well, obsessed readers.
For the first time this year, I am truly excited about a game.
Yes, I was excited about Charlie's first game, but I was anxious about what kind of talent Michigan State was going to bring to the table, and how Charlie would deal with the Circus that is game week on campus for the first time.
For Southern Cal, I was fired up, but excited doesn't really describe the gamut of emotions I was experiencing. As a matter of fact, that entire week I was like a manic depressive, veering wildly between depressed memories of Ty's embarassing losses to the Poodle and wildly optimistic dreams of fairy tale endings that would vault us to a National Championship. I was impatient, but not excited. Also, having my brother in town was a lot of fun, but also quite a distraction.
For BYU, well, it was BYU. I knew we would win, and win big, but despite last year's loss to the Cougars, I just couldn't rile up a lot of emotion. I was way more excited about having my sister in town and showing her and her friend the game day atmosphere than the game.
This week, though, I am absolutely stoked. Excited beyond belief. We have a quality opponent with a talented defense limping in halfway through a disappointing season for them. We are a Top 10 team, well-rested with two weeks of preparation under our belts. It should be a dogfight - a hard-hitting, smashmouth football game in the trenches with the exciting plays and momentum shifts that are inevitable in this kind of matchup. I don't have anyone from out of town to try to schedule around. I can finally go enjoy a game on my own.
Now lets break this match-up down (I'm cutting back the format a little, looking at key match-ups for the game instead of every single player on the field.)
Notre Dame Passing v. Tennessee Secondary and Pass-rush
Key Matchups:
Brady Quinn, QB, 175-266 (65.8% completions) 2,352 yds., 20 TD, 4 INT, 44 rushes, 169 yds.
vs.
Parys Haralson, DE, 30 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks
and
Jason Hall, DE, 26 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 5 sacks
Brady has been torching teams all year, sitting at 5th in the country in pass completions per game (the most by a quarterback for any team ranked in the top 15). Tennessee is averaging 3 sacks per game (tied for 15th in the nation), while Notre Dame is giving up only 1.5 sacks per game. Something has got to give. Either Notre Dame's offensive line will continue to be efficient, or Tennessee's ends will get theirs. My gut feeling is that Brady's pocket presence will trump the pass rush, and we'll give up maybe two sacks.
Don't underestimte these rushers, though; if they can get to Brady early and disrupt his timing, they could gdrag this offense down to a snail's pace. Also look for Jessee Mahelona inside to collapse the pocket a couple of times.
Jeff Samardzija, WR
and
Maurice Stovall, WR
vs.
Jonathan Hefney, CB
and
Jonathan Wade, CB
Notre Dame's receivers are getting better by the week, but they haven't faced a tougher corner tandem than this. Returning starter Jonathan Hefney is the team's shut down corner, usually bottling up the opposing team's leading receiver. The opposite corner, Jonathan Wade, beat out last year's starter Roshaun Fellows to emerge as a force at the other side of the field. Teams have tried to pick on him, but he has a knack for getting his hand on the ball. Because last year's starter, Fellows, is the third corner, Notre Dame would have to go at least 4 deep at receiver to expose any weaknesses.
This, for me, is the most intriguing matchup this week.
Notre Dame's Running Backs vs. Tennessee's Linebackers and Defensive Line
Darius Walker, RB
and
Travis Thomas, RB
vs.
Omar Gaither, LB
and
Kevin Simon, LB
and
Jessee Mahelona, DT
Notre Dame doesn't have the standout running back many people expected in Darius Walker this year. Some of this is due to the utilization of Travis Thomas and Rashon Powers-Neal. Some of it is Darius learning how to run effectively in Charlie's system, trusting his blocks and hitting the seams decisively, even if they haven't opened yet.
Tennessee is the 5th best rush defense team in the country, giving up only 85 yards per game on the ground.
This could be a long day for ND's runners, as the linebacking core and D-line for Tennessee closes holes quickly and penetrates the backfield effectively.
Much like the Pittsburgh game, look for Charlie to rely on screens to move the ball, rather than attack this defense's strength.
Problem with that: Jason Allen, the All-American free safety.
Notre Dame Offense v. Tennessee Defense
This matchup is what has me excited about this game.
Charlie Weis is an offensive genius-robot.
Phil Fulmer's defense is one of the best in the country, and these kids are like wounded animals backed into a corner. They feel like they have something to prove.
Tennessee gives up 208 yds/gm passing compared to the 340 yds/gm we are accustomed to.
Tennessee gives up only 85 yds/gm on the ground. Despite the disappointments in this area, we still average almost 153 yds/gm on the ground.
Thats a difference of exactly 200 yds/gm between what they give up and what we normally get.
Something's got to give.
Expect the Irish to struggle early against the best defense they'll play this year, but to get a couple of quick strike touchdowns towards the end of the first half.
Tennessee's defense will reassert itself in the second half, but Notre Dame will grind out another score late in the game.
Tennessee Rushing v. Notre Dame Linebackers
Gerald Riggs, Jr., RB - senior returning starter, 1,000 yard rusher
Arian Foster, RB - true freshman, 61 rushes, 285 yds., 2 TD, 3 fumbles
vs.
Brandon Hoyte, LB, 56 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles
and
Corey Mays, LB, 32 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 forced fumbles
The loss of Gerald Riggs to injury during the Alabama game doomed any hope Tennessee had of consistency on offense this season. Tennessee is average a paltry 110 yds/gm on the ground, while Notre Dame's rush defense is a solid 119 yds/gm. this translates into a situation where Tennessee will struggle to move the ball on the ground all day.
I expect Tennessee to have less than 75 yards rushing at game's end.
Tennessee Passing v. Notre Dame Pass Defense
Bear with me as I go statistic-happy for a little bit, as this matchup is difficult to decipher.
Tennessee's passing game is only averaging a little over 200 yds/gm (79th in the country).
On the bright side for them, Notre Dame is giving up just over 300 yds/gm (114th in the country).
However, these numbers are a bit deceiving.
Notre Dame's opponents have all been pass-happy teams compared to Tennessee. Southern Cal averages 344 yds/gm in the air, BYU 325, Michigan State 307, Purdue 263, Washington 232, Pittsburgh 223, and Michigan 219.
Averaged out, Notre Dame gives up about 25 yards more per game than their opponent's average.
Tennessee has also faced some of the toughest pass defense teams in the country. Their opponents give up very few passing yards: Alabama 160yds/gm, Florida 168, Georgia 174, South Carolina 177, Mississippi 186, LSU 203, UAB 210.
Averaged out, Tennessee is gaining about 25 yards more per game than their opponent's average.
So the question is, does Notre Dame give up about 225 yds (~25 yards over Tennessee's average), or does Tennessee throw for about 325 yards (~25 yards over Notre Dame's average)?
This matchup is interesting because Tennessee will not be able to run, and Notre Dame has been susceptible to the pass.
The statistic I think will decide this is efficiency. Notre Dame's pass efficiency defense is a respectable 122 (for those non-football people, that means that they are actually 58th in the country, not 114th). Tennessee's pass efficiency offense is a pitiful 101 (this puts them at 101st in the country, not 79th).
What does this all mean?
Notre Dame, because of Tennessee's one-dimensionality, will be able to sit on the pass and will bottle up Tennessee's passing game.
Tennessee Offense v. Notre Dame Defense
Notre Dame has faced some incredibly high-powered offenses this year. Tennessee is not high-powered, especially with their best offensive player on the sidelines.
Tennessee is used to playing against stingy defenses. Notre Dame isn't exactly stingy, as they have given up lots of passing yardage.
However, Notre Dame's defense has adjusted well in every game this year, especially in the 2nd quarter.
Expect Tennessee to look good early, as their team is playing with a lot of pride and emotion. I wouldn't be surprised to see them jump out to an early lead.
Notre Dame will adjust late in the first half, pressuring the quarterback and throwing off their timing.
In the second half, the Vols will rally again, but will simply not have enough offense to make up the deficit they'll be facing late in the game.
Also, as usual, expect the Irish to come up with 1 or 2 red zone turnovers against a team that will be pressing most of the game, and will be looking for an identity on offense, due to confusion in the coaching ranks.
Notre Dame Coaching v. Tennessee Coaching
Earlier this week, Tennessee's offensive coordinator resigned, effective at the end of the year. Beginning with this game, their offensive coordinator will be in the press box, discussing the play calls with Phil Fulmer, Tennessee's head coach, via headphones.
Notre Dame's head coach Charlie Weis was just granted an extension to his contract, keeping him here until 2015, amid rumors that NFL teams were courting him.
Do you really have to ask which team has the advantage here?
Notre Dame's biggest worry in this game is complacency by the coaching staff. If Coach Weis doesn't stay agressive on offense despite early struggles, this game could get away from him, with Tennessee's defense dictating the pace of the game. As long as we stay aggressive, we should be OK.
Prediction
Notre Dame 24
Tennessee 13
Tennessee will jump out to an early 7-0 lead, but Notre Dame will score 14 straight in the second quarter to retake the lead. Tennessee and Notre Dame will grind out a couple of field goals early in the second half, and Tennessee will slim the lead to 13-17. Notre Dame will respond with an epic fourth quarter drive to put the game out of reach.
For the first time this year, I am truly excited about a game.
Yes, I was excited about Charlie's first game, but I was anxious about what kind of talent Michigan State was going to bring to the table, and how Charlie would deal with the Circus that is game week on campus for the first time.
For Southern Cal, I was fired up, but excited doesn't really describe the gamut of emotions I was experiencing. As a matter of fact, that entire week I was like a manic depressive, veering wildly between depressed memories of Ty's embarassing losses to the Poodle and wildly optimistic dreams of fairy tale endings that would vault us to a National Championship. I was impatient, but not excited. Also, having my brother in town was a lot of fun, but also quite a distraction.
For BYU, well, it was BYU. I knew we would win, and win big, but despite last year's loss to the Cougars, I just couldn't rile up a lot of emotion. I was way more excited about having my sister in town and showing her and her friend the game day atmosphere than the game.
This week, though, I am absolutely stoked. Excited beyond belief. We have a quality opponent with a talented defense limping in halfway through a disappointing season for them. We are a Top 10 team, well-rested with two weeks of preparation under our belts. It should be a dogfight - a hard-hitting, smashmouth football game in the trenches with the exciting plays and momentum shifts that are inevitable in this kind of matchup. I don't have anyone from out of town to try to schedule around. I can finally go enjoy a game on my own.
Now lets break this match-up down (I'm cutting back the format a little, looking at key match-ups for the game instead of every single player on the field.)
Notre Dame Passing v. Tennessee Secondary and Pass-rush
Key Matchups:
Brady Quinn, QB, 175-266 (65.8% completions) 2,352 yds., 20 TD, 4 INT, 44 rushes, 169 yds.
vs.
Parys Haralson, DE, 30 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks
and
Jason Hall, DE, 26 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 5 sacks
Brady has been torching teams all year, sitting at 5th in the country in pass completions per game (the most by a quarterback for any team ranked in the top 15). Tennessee is averaging 3 sacks per game (tied for 15th in the nation), while Notre Dame is giving up only 1.5 sacks per game. Something has got to give. Either Notre Dame's offensive line will continue to be efficient, or Tennessee's ends will get theirs. My gut feeling is that Brady's pocket presence will trump the pass rush, and we'll give up maybe two sacks.
Don't underestimte these rushers, though; if they can get to Brady early and disrupt his timing, they could gdrag this offense down to a snail's pace. Also look for Jessee Mahelona inside to collapse the pocket a couple of times.
Jeff Samardzija, WR
and
Maurice Stovall, WR
vs.
Jonathan Hefney, CB
and
Jonathan Wade, CB
Notre Dame's receivers are getting better by the week, but they haven't faced a tougher corner tandem than this. Returning starter Jonathan Hefney is the team's shut down corner, usually bottling up the opposing team's leading receiver. The opposite corner, Jonathan Wade, beat out last year's starter Roshaun Fellows to emerge as a force at the other side of the field. Teams have tried to pick on him, but he has a knack for getting his hand on the ball. Because last year's starter, Fellows, is the third corner, Notre Dame would have to go at least 4 deep at receiver to expose any weaknesses.
This, for me, is the most intriguing matchup this week.
Notre Dame's Running Backs vs. Tennessee's Linebackers and Defensive Line
Darius Walker, RB
and
Travis Thomas, RB
vs.
Omar Gaither, LB
and
Kevin Simon, LB
and
Jessee Mahelona, DT
Notre Dame doesn't have the standout running back many people expected in Darius Walker this year. Some of this is due to the utilization of Travis Thomas and Rashon Powers-Neal. Some of it is Darius learning how to run effectively in Charlie's system, trusting his blocks and hitting the seams decisively, even if they haven't opened yet.
Tennessee is the 5th best rush defense team in the country, giving up only 85 yards per game on the ground.
This could be a long day for ND's runners, as the linebacking core and D-line for Tennessee closes holes quickly and penetrates the backfield effectively.
Much like the Pittsburgh game, look for Charlie to rely on screens to move the ball, rather than attack this defense's strength.
Problem with that: Jason Allen, the All-American free safety.
Notre Dame Offense v. Tennessee Defense
This matchup is what has me excited about this game.
Charlie Weis is an offensive genius-robot.
Phil Fulmer's defense is one of the best in the country, and these kids are like wounded animals backed into a corner. They feel like they have something to prove.
Tennessee gives up 208 yds/gm passing compared to the 340 yds/gm we are accustomed to.
Tennessee gives up only 85 yds/gm on the ground. Despite the disappointments in this area, we still average almost 153 yds/gm on the ground.
Thats a difference of exactly 200 yds/gm between what they give up and what we normally get.
Something's got to give.
Expect the Irish to struggle early against the best defense they'll play this year, but to get a couple of quick strike touchdowns towards the end of the first half.
Tennessee's defense will reassert itself in the second half, but Notre Dame will grind out another score late in the game.
Tennessee Rushing v. Notre Dame Linebackers
Arian Foster, RB - true freshman, 61 rushes, 285 yds., 2 TD, 3 fumbles
vs.
Brandon Hoyte, LB, 56 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles
and
Corey Mays, LB, 32 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 forced fumbles
The loss of Gerald Riggs to injury during the Alabama game doomed any hope Tennessee had of consistency on offense this season. Tennessee is average a paltry 110 yds/gm on the ground, while Notre Dame's rush defense is a solid 119 yds/gm. this translates into a situation where Tennessee will struggle to move the ball on the ground all day.
I expect Tennessee to have less than 75 yards rushing at game's end.
Tennessee Passing v. Notre Dame Pass Defense
Bear with me as I go statistic-happy for a little bit, as this matchup is difficult to decipher.
Tennessee's passing game is only averaging a little over 200 yds/gm (79th in the country).
On the bright side for them, Notre Dame is giving up just over 300 yds/gm (114th in the country).
However, these numbers are a bit deceiving.
Notre Dame's opponents have all been pass-happy teams compared to Tennessee. Southern Cal averages 344 yds/gm in the air, BYU 325, Michigan State 307, Purdue 263, Washington 232, Pittsburgh 223, and Michigan 219.
Averaged out, Notre Dame gives up about 25 yards more per game than their opponent's average.
Tennessee has also faced some of the toughest pass defense teams in the country. Their opponents give up very few passing yards: Alabama 160yds/gm, Florida 168, Georgia 174, South Carolina 177, Mississippi 186, LSU 203, UAB 210.
Averaged out, Tennessee is gaining about 25 yards more per game than their opponent's average.
So the question is, does Notre Dame give up about 225 yds (~25 yards over Tennessee's average), or does Tennessee throw for about 325 yards (~25 yards over Notre Dame's average)?
This matchup is interesting because Tennessee will not be able to run, and Notre Dame has been susceptible to the pass.
The statistic I think will decide this is efficiency. Notre Dame's pass efficiency defense is a respectable 122 (for those non-football people, that means that they are actually 58th in the country, not 114th). Tennessee's pass efficiency offense is a pitiful 101 (this puts them at 101st in the country, not 79th).
What does this all mean?
Notre Dame, because of Tennessee's one-dimensionality, will be able to sit on the pass and will bottle up Tennessee's passing game.
Tennessee Offense v. Notre Dame Defense
Notre Dame has faced some incredibly high-powered offenses this year. Tennessee is not high-powered, especially with their best offensive player on the sidelines.
Tennessee is used to playing against stingy defenses. Notre Dame isn't exactly stingy, as they have given up lots of passing yardage.
However, Notre Dame's defense has adjusted well in every game this year, especially in the 2nd quarter.
Expect Tennessee to look good early, as their team is playing with a lot of pride and emotion. I wouldn't be surprised to see them jump out to an early lead.
Notre Dame will adjust late in the first half, pressuring the quarterback and throwing off their timing.
In the second half, the Vols will rally again, but will simply not have enough offense to make up the deficit they'll be facing late in the game.
Also, as usual, expect the Irish to come up with 1 or 2 red zone turnovers against a team that will be pressing most of the game, and will be looking for an identity on offense, due to confusion in the coaching ranks.
Notre Dame Coaching v. Tennessee Coaching
Earlier this week, Tennessee's offensive coordinator resigned, effective at the end of the year. Beginning with this game, their offensive coordinator will be in the press box, discussing the play calls with Phil Fulmer, Tennessee's head coach, via headphones.
Notre Dame's head coach Charlie Weis was just granted an extension to his contract, keeping him here until 2015, amid rumors that NFL teams were courting him.
Do you really have to ask which team has the advantage here?
Notre Dame's biggest worry in this game is complacency by the coaching staff. If Coach Weis doesn't stay agressive on offense despite early struggles, this game could get away from him, with Tennessee's defense dictating the pace of the game. As long as we stay aggressive, we should be OK.
Prediction
Notre Dame 24
Tennessee 13
Tennessee will jump out to an early 7-0 lead, but Notre Dame will score 14 straight in the second quarter to retake the lead. Tennessee and Notre Dame will grind out a couple of field goals early in the second half, and Tennessee will slim the lead to 13-17. Notre Dame will respond with an epic fourth quarter drive to put the game out of reach.
Monday, October 24, 2005
Re-writing the Notre Dame record books
Brady broke the all-time records for touchdowns in a game and in a season, Stovall broke the all-time record for TD receptions in a game, and Jeff "The Shark" Samardzija tied the record high for touchdown receptions in a season.
Oh, and for those that are counting, Brady has 2,352 yards on the year to date, just 401 behind all-time leader Jarious Jackson - at his current pace, Brady will beat that mark by over 1,200 yards at season's end.
And its not all passing. Despite having some less-than-stellar performances the past couple of games, Darius Walker is still on pace to finish the season with nearly 1,100 yards, which would place him in the top 10 seasons in the history of Notre Dame. And, lest we forget, he's a sophomore. Only Autry Denson and Allen Pinkett have had sophomore years as prolific.
And the weakest part of the schedule is still ahead. This team still has four more games to play. And of those four, three of them have losing records, and the toughest opponent (Tennessee) has a .500 record right now (they'll likely be 4-3 when they coming limping into Notre Dame Stadium).
This team has plenty of time to pad their stats for the post-season awards, and I wouldn't be surprised if Brady starts to get even more Heisman cred late in the season with the numbers he'll put up. However, barring an injury or horrible case of fumblitis (and possibly even despite anything that happens) Reggie Bush will win the Heisman.
My predictions for post-season awards (through this week):
Heisman Memorial Trophy (Player of the Year)
Reggie Bush, USC
Runner-up: Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Invited: Matt Leinart, USC; Vince Young, Texas; Maurice Drew, UCLA
Snubbed: DeAngelo Williams, Memphis;
Maxwell Award (Player of the Year)
Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Runner-up: Reggie Bush, USC
Walter Camp Award (Player of the Year)
Reggie Bush, USC
Runner-up: DeAngelo Williams, Memphis
Davey O'Brien award (Most Outstanding Quarterback)
Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Runner-up: Matt Leinart, USC
Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (Outstanding Senior Quarterback)
Matt Leinart, USC
Runner-up: Brodie Croyle, Alabama
Doak Walker Award (Best Running Back)
DeAngelo Williams, Memphis
Runner-up: Maurice Drew, UCLA
Fred Biletnikoff Award (Best Receiver)
Jeff Samardzija, Notre Dame
Runner-up: Dwayne Jarret, USC
Fred Mackey Award (Best Tight End)
Garrett Mills, Tulsa
Runner-up: Anthony Fasano, Notre Dame
I am a big football geek, but I don't have any way of determining the best offensive lineman awards or any of the defensive awards, as I don't have time to watch that much game tape. And I didn't feel like figuring out the Groza Award for best kicker.
Oh, and for those that are counting, Brady has 2,352 yards on the year to date, just 401 behind all-time leader Jarious Jackson - at his current pace, Brady will beat that mark by over 1,200 yards at season's end.
And its not all passing. Despite having some less-than-stellar performances the past couple of games, Darius Walker is still on pace to finish the season with nearly 1,100 yards, which would place him in the top 10 seasons in the history of Notre Dame. And, lest we forget, he's a sophomore. Only Autry Denson and Allen Pinkett have had sophomore years as prolific.
And the weakest part of the schedule is still ahead. This team still has four more games to play. And of those four, three of them have losing records, and the toughest opponent (Tennessee) has a .500 record right now (they'll likely be 4-3 when they coming limping into Notre Dame Stadium).
This team has plenty of time to pad their stats for the post-season awards, and I wouldn't be surprised if Brady starts to get even more Heisman cred late in the season with the numbers he'll put up. However, barring an injury or horrible case of fumblitis (and possibly even despite anything that happens) Reggie Bush will win the Heisman.
My predictions for post-season awards (through this week):
Heisman Memorial Trophy (Player of the Year)
Reggie Bush, USC
Runner-up: Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Invited: Matt Leinart, USC; Vince Young, Texas; Maurice Drew, UCLA
Snubbed: DeAngelo Williams, Memphis;
Maxwell Award (Player of the Year)
Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Runner-up: Reggie Bush, USC
Walter Camp Award (Player of the Year)
Reggie Bush, USC
Runner-up: DeAngelo Williams, Memphis
Davey O'Brien award (Most Outstanding Quarterback)
Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Runner-up: Matt Leinart, USC
Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (Outstanding Senior Quarterback)
Matt Leinart, USC
Runner-up: Brodie Croyle, Alabama
Doak Walker Award (Best Running Back)
DeAngelo Williams, Memphis
Runner-up: Maurice Drew, UCLA
Fred Biletnikoff Award (Best Receiver)
Jeff Samardzija, Notre Dame
Runner-up: Dwayne Jarret, USC
Fred Mackey Award (Best Tight End)
Garrett Mills, Tulsa
Runner-up: Anthony Fasano, Notre Dame
I am a big football geek, but I don't have any way of determining the best offensive lineman awards or any of the defensive awards, as I don't have time to watch that much game tape. And I didn't feel like figuring out the Groza Award for best kicker.
Notre Dame 49, Brigham Young 23
As I predicted, this wasn't much of a contest. Notre Dame came out a little flat, and weren't really able to stretch their defensive muscles until the second half. The offense, however, looked good pretty much all day.
Coach Weis, as he is apt to do, surprised me once again. Sometime towards the end of the first series, I was beginning to wonder if we had even dressed a running back. The game started in a 5-wide formation, and Darius didn't come into the game until very late in the drive. Weis bumfuzzled the opposing defenders with a series of three-step drops, quickly punching them in their soft spots. Their befuddlement only increased as the game wore on, and at one point, the defense was so confused that they let Jeff Samardzija into the end zone a good 7-10 yards behind EVERY defender. Needless to say, Brady found him for a TD.
The biggest surprise of this game was the breakout game of Maurice Stovall. He suddenly developed All-American hands and some wicked speed during his runs after the catch.
The defense, after a slow start, settled down, and developed some momentum at the end of the game, culminating in an 83-yard interception return for a touchdown by Tom Zbikowski.
I've lost count of how many red-zone interceptions the Irish have recorded this year, but at this point, it's well past luck, and well into habit.
Coach Weis, as he is apt to do, surprised me once again. Sometime towards the end of the first series, I was beginning to wonder if we had even dressed a running back. The game started in a 5-wide formation, and Darius didn't come into the game until very late in the drive. Weis bumfuzzled the opposing defenders with a series of three-step drops, quickly punching them in their soft spots. Their befuddlement only increased as the game wore on, and at one point, the defense was so confused that they let Jeff Samardzija into the end zone a good 7-10 yards behind EVERY defender. Needless to say, Brady found him for a TD.
The biggest surprise of this game was the breakout game of Maurice Stovall. He suddenly developed All-American hands and some wicked speed during his runs after the catch.
The defense, after a slow start, settled down, and developed some momentum at the end of the game, culminating in an 83-yard interception return for a touchdown by Tom Zbikowski.
I've lost count of how many red-zone interceptions the Irish have recorded this year, but at this point, it's well past luck, and well into habit.
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