Sunday, November 05, 2006

National title hopes

Last week, I conceded the national title chances due to pollster bias, and I stick to that, but for those of you that want to know what needs to happen for the Irish to have a shot, here it is, by BCS ranking:

1. Ohio State
Remaining games of note: vs. #2 Michigan
We need: Loss to Michigan
2. Michigan
Remaining games of note: @ #1 Ohio State
We need: Michigan to win - the bigger the better.
3. Louisville
Remaining games of note: @ #13 Rutgers, @ Pitt
We need: Loss to Rutgers
4. Florida
Remaining games of note: vs. South Carolina, @ Florida State, SEC Championship
We need: Loss in the SEC Championship; The 'Noles are down, and Spurrier can't seem to finish games this year.
5. Texas
Remaining games of note: Texas A&M, Big 12 Championship
We need: Loss to Texas A&M - the Championship game won't challenge them.
6. Auburn
Remaining games of note: Georgia, Alabama
We need: Loss to Alabama - Georgia is bad, but Alabama has a shot because it is a rivalry game.
7. Southern California
Remaining games of note: vs. #20 Oregon, vs. #8 Cal, vs. #9 Notre Dame
We need: Wins over Oregon and Cal, then a loss to ND.
8. California
Remaining games of note: @ #7 Southern Cal
We need: Cal to lose to SC. They won't be challenged by Arizona or Stanford, and don't have to play in a championship game. And a loss by SC dampens our game with them.
9. Notre Dame
Remaining games of note: @ #7 Southern Cal
We need: Just win, baby.
10. West Virginia
Remaining games of note: @ Pitt, vs. #13 Rutgers
We need: Win over Rutgers. We might be able to get by an undefeated Rutgers squad, but better safe than sorry. I don't see WVU catching us from behind.
11. Arkansas
Remaining games of note: vs. Tennessee, vs. LSU, possible SEC Championship
We need: 1 loss (to either Tenn. or LSU), then a win over the Gators in the SEC Championship
12. LSU
Remaining games of note: @ Arkansas, vs. Alabama
We need: Nothing - they have two losses. A win over Arkansas would be helpful.
13. Rutgers
Remaining games of note: vs. #3 Louisville, @ #10 West Virginia
We need: A win over Louisville on Thursday, then a loss to either Pitt or West Virginia.

Now, as you look at that long list of things we need to happen, consider that if just one of those things doesn't happen, we will need a tremendous boost in the polls to overcome it.

Now, I would expect a bit of a jump in the polls in the final balloting of the ESPN Coaches Poll, as the ND haters (like Spurrier) will have to move ND up into a reasonable ranking spot before their ballots go public, negating some of the bias.

Overall, however, I think we are on a collision course with the Sugar Bowl and a matchup with either Florida or Auburn.

1 comment:

JStolte said...
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