With the inevitable comparison of 1-loss teams for the championship, I figured I'd break down the numbers between Notre Dame and the other 1-loss teams. Because the rankings are flawed, I ordered them by ranking of the opponent they lost to.
I'll update this each week until the end of the season.
Wisconsin
Wins: 10
Losses: 1 [to #2 Michigan (11-0)]
Wins over BCS teams: 6
Wins over non-BCS teams: 3
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 3
Wins over I-AA opponents: 1
Remaining games:
Buffalo (2-8)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
Purdue (7-4)
Penn State (7-4)
Iowa (6-5)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
NONE
Wins over teams on the bubble:
Bowling Green (4-6)
Indiana (5-6)
Minnesota (5-6)
Arguments for: Only loss is to #2 Michigan
Arguments Against: Strength of Schedule. They haven't beaten anybody. No wins against ranked opponents, and have an extremely weak non-conference schedule. No big games to increase their ranking from here on.
Notre Dame
Wins: 9
Losses: 1 [to #2 Michigan (11-0)]
Wins over BCS teams: 7
Wins over non-BCS teams: 2
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 4
Wins over I-AA opponents: 0
Remaining games:
Army (3-7)
#4 Southern Cal (9-1)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
#18 Georgia Tech (8-2)
Penn State (7-4)
Purdue (7-4)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
Navy (7-3)
Wins over teams on the bubble:
UCLA (5-5)
Air Force (4-5)
Arguments for: Only loss is to undefeated #2 Michigan, and they have beaten the ACC Coastal champion. No games against I-AA opponents. Has shown an uncanny knack to rally and get the win.
Arguments against: No wins over top-ten teams (yet). Got creamed by Michigan at home by 26 points. Has shown an uncanny knack to have to rally and get the win.
Arkansas
Wins: 9
Losses: 1 [to #4 Southern Cal (9-1)]
Wins over BCS teams: 6
Wins over non-BCS teams: 3
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 3
Wins over I-AA opponents: 1
Remaining games:
Mississippi State (3-7)
#9 LSU (8-2)
SEC Championship [likely against #3 Florida (9-1)]
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
#15 Auburn (7-3)
Alabama (6-5)
#23 Tennessee (7-3)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
NONE
Wins over teams on the bubble:
South Carolina (5-5)
Arguments for: Has beaten two ranked teams, loss was to a top five team in first game of season before they started QB Mustain.
Arguments against: Have beaten only 3 bowl eligible teams. Got absolutely KILLED by Southern Cal at home to the tune of 50-14 - a 36 point blowout.
Louisville
Wins: 8
Losses: 1 [to #8 Rutgers (9-0)]
Wins over BCS teams: 6
Wins over non-BCS teams: 2
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 4
Wins over I-AA opponents: 0
Remaining games:
South Florida (7-3)
Pittsburgh (6-4)
Connecticut (4-5)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
Kentucky (6-4)
Kansas State (7-4)
#7 West Virginia (8-1)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
Middle Tennessee State (7-3)
Wins over teams on the bubble:
Miami (5-5)
Cincinnati (5-5)
Arguments for: Only loss was to undefeated Rutgers, and had a big win over West Virginia.
Arguments against: Lost to Rutgers. Besides West Virginia, haven't really played anyone (Miami ended up sucking this year).
West Virginia
Wins: 8
Losses: 1 [to #12 Louisville (8-1)]
Wins over BCS teams: 6
Wins over non-BCS teams: 3
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 2
Wins over I-AA opponents: 1
Remaining games:
Pittsburgh (6-4)
South Florida (7-3)
#8 Rutgers (9-0)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
#21 Maryland (8-2)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
East Carolina (6-4)
Wins over teams on the bubble:
Marshall (4-6)
Connecticut (4-5)
Cincinnati (5-5)
Arguments for: Loss was to another 1-loss top-15 team on the road. Beat ACC Atlantic leader Maryland.
Arguments against: Maryland is their only decent win - they have only beaten 2 bowl eligible teams. One of the weakest schedules in the country.
Florida
Wins: 9
Losses: 1 [to #15 Auburn (9-2)]
Wins over BCS teams: 7
Wins over non-BCS teams: 2
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 6
Wins over I-AA opponents: 0
Remaining games:
I-AA Western Carolina (2-8 in I-AA)
Florida State (5-5)
SEC Championship [likely against #6 Arkansas (9-1)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
#23 Tennessee (7-3)
Kentucky (6-5)
Alabama (6-5)
#9 LSU (8-2)
Georgia (7-4)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
Southern Mississippi (6-4)
Wins over teams on the bubble:
South Carolina (5-5)
Arguments for: Won SEC East, played a difficult SEC schedule. Only loss was to a good Auburn team on the road.
Arguments against: Wins aren't as impressive in retrospect, and has looked unimpressive since loss - close calls against Georgia, Vandy, and South Carolina.
Southern Cal
Wins: 8
Losses: 1 [to Oregon State (6-4)]
Wins over BCS teams: 8
Wins over non-BCS teams: 0
Wins over bowl eligible teams: 6
Wins over I-AA opponents: 0
Remaining games:
#17 California (8-2)
#5 Notre Dame (9-1)
UCLA (5-5)
Wins over BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
#6 Arkansas (9-1)
#22 Nebraska (8-3)
Washington State (6-5)
Arizona State (6-5)
Oregon State (6-4)
Oregon (7-3)
Wins over non-BCS conference bowl eligible teams:
NONE
Wins over teams on the bubble:
Arizona (5-5)
Arguments for: Played one of toughest schedules in the country, with big wins over Arkansas, Nebraska, and Oregon.
Arguments against: Lost to a horrible Oregon State team, by far the worst loss of any of the 1-loss teams. Barely beat hapless Washington, Arizona State, and Washington State.
So there they are, the 1-loss contenders heading down the stretch (there are other 1-loss teams that don't really have any shot). We still have a lot of games to play, and it should be exciting to see how it shakes out.
FIVE GAMES THAT WILL DECIDE THE CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDER:
LSU at Arkansas - Nov. 24
Florida at Florida State - Nov. 25
Notre Dame at Southern Cal - Nov. 25
Rutgers at West Virginia - Dec. 2
SEC Championship game: Florida vs. Arkansas - Dec. 2
Have fun, and enjoy the ride.
Sunday, November 12, 2006
Good Day for Notre Dame Football
Yesterday was a very good day. After watching at least 10 different sportscasters picking "the best of the one-loss teams" with nary a mention of ND in sight, the bulk of the so-called "best" one-loss teams lost yesterday, while ND rolled to a quick lead against Air Force before shifting into neutral and cruising to a 39-17 victory over a bowl-bound Air Force team.
#3/#4 Louisville, the crown prince of the BCS championship, lost to Rutgers.
#4/#3 Texas, the team with the easiest road and picked (about even with Florida) as the best 1-loss team thus far, lost to unranked Kansas State
#5 Auburn, the SEC team with only one-loss that wasn't going to have to play in the SEC championship, had an easy road to the end of the season. But they overlooked the hapless Georgia Bulldogs, losing big.
#6 Florida has been riding the ESPN hype all week long, being picked almost as often as Texas as the best 1-loss team. However, they needed a missed field goal, a blocked field goal, and a missed extra point to edge out unranked South Carolina 17-16.
#7 USC looked good against Oregon, and that's good for us, as we want Southern Cal to look as good as possible when we stomp them in the Coliseum in 2 weeks.
#8 California was a close third according to many pundits as the best 1-loss team, and many were predicting the Golden Bears to knock off the mighty Trojans next week. But Cal forgot to knock off the mighty Arizona Wildcats first, losing 24-20.
#11 Arkansas was the only other 1-loss team besides Notre Dame to look good in their game, as they stomped the overrated Tennessee team. Despite being ranked behind ND going into the week, the Razorbacks pulled a Cal/Florida/Tennessee and jumped the Irish in the AP poll after the Irish won their game. But nobody passed Florida after their close call. Go figure.
So where does all that drama leave the Irish?
Let's just say that I'm revoking my premature concession that we wouldn't make the championship game.
We still need a couple of things to happen, but the chances of us making the BCS championship went from about 1 in 500 to about 1 in 10 this week.
A Florida loss would have been helpful, and because they survived, we need Florida to stumble either against Florida State or in the SEC Championship.
Likewise, we need Arkansas to stumble against LSU or in the SEC Championship game.
If either of those teams come out of the SEC with 1 loss, our chances of leapfrogging them aren't great.
The only other team we need to keep an eye on is 9-0 Rutgers, who should lose to West Virginia.
The losses by Texas and Auburn took care of the 1-loss teams that had "easy sailing" to the end of the year.
Cal's loss means that USC doesn't have to beat them next week for us to stay ahead of them. However, we still need SC to win that game.
We have SC's destiny in our hands, as we play them on Nov. 25.
Don't be surprised if the two greatest rivalries in college football (Michigan-tOSU and ND-USC) turn into "play-in" games for the national championship.
I still have plenty of faith that the bias of the human polls will drag us down, but our computer rankings might put us ahead of another 1-loss team by the end of the season. Playing Army isn't going to help our SOS, though.
Lost in all the excitement this year is the wonderful fact that, in only his second year as head coach, Coach Weis has his team in the conversation for the national title.
What a difference a coach makes.
#3/#4 Louisville, the crown prince of the BCS championship, lost to Rutgers.
#4/#3 Texas, the team with the easiest road and picked (about even with Florida) as the best 1-loss team thus far, lost to unranked Kansas State
#5 Auburn, the SEC team with only one-loss that wasn't going to have to play in the SEC championship, had an easy road to the end of the season. But they overlooked the hapless Georgia Bulldogs, losing big.
#6 Florida has been riding the ESPN hype all week long, being picked almost as often as Texas as the best 1-loss team. However, they needed a missed field goal, a blocked field goal, and a missed extra point to edge out unranked South Carolina 17-16.
#7 USC looked good against Oregon, and that's good for us, as we want Southern Cal to look as good as possible when we stomp them in the Coliseum in 2 weeks.
#8 California was a close third according to many pundits as the best 1-loss team, and many were predicting the Golden Bears to knock off the mighty Trojans next week. But Cal forgot to knock off the mighty Arizona Wildcats first, losing 24-20.
#11 Arkansas was the only other 1-loss team besides Notre Dame to look good in their game, as they stomped the overrated Tennessee team. Despite being ranked behind ND going into the week, the Razorbacks pulled a Cal/Florida/Tennessee and jumped the Irish in the AP poll after the Irish won their game. But nobody passed Florida after their close call. Go figure.
So where does all that drama leave the Irish?
Let's just say that I'm revoking my premature concession that we wouldn't make the championship game.
We still need a couple of things to happen, but the chances of us making the BCS championship went from about 1 in 500 to about 1 in 10 this week.
A Florida loss would have been helpful, and because they survived, we need Florida to stumble either against Florida State or in the SEC Championship.
Likewise, we need Arkansas to stumble against LSU or in the SEC Championship game.
If either of those teams come out of the SEC with 1 loss, our chances of leapfrogging them aren't great.
The only other team we need to keep an eye on is 9-0 Rutgers, who should lose to West Virginia.
The losses by Texas and Auburn took care of the 1-loss teams that had "easy sailing" to the end of the year.
Cal's loss means that USC doesn't have to beat them next week for us to stay ahead of them. However, we still need SC to win that game.
We have SC's destiny in our hands, as we play them on Nov. 25.
Don't be surprised if the two greatest rivalries in college football (Michigan-tOSU and ND-USC) turn into "play-in" games for the national championship.
I still have plenty of faith that the bias of the human polls will drag us down, but our computer rankings might put us ahead of another 1-loss team by the end of the season. Playing Army isn't going to help our SOS, though.
Lost in all the excitement this year is the wonderful fact that, in only his second year as head coach, Coach Weis has his team in the conversation for the national title.
What a difference a coach makes.
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