The Official Domer Law 2010 Season Preview

**Yes, I am aware of the changes to the depth chart.  This is a fluid situation, and this post has been 2 weeks in the making.  Please accept the slight inaccuracies.**

So, the season is now upon us.  The team has finished up training camp and transitioned into game week mode for practices.  Most of the positional battles have shaken themselves out, and we are now on the verge of beginning the Kelly era in South Bend.

So, here is my annual 2010 Season Preview.  I'm going to break down the roster and the schedule, with predictions across the board.  Unlike my last post, I'm going to try to present a realistic view of our chances of success, but I do think that there is a very high ceiling for this team this year.

So, without further ado, please allow me to present your 2010 Notre Dame Fighting Irish!

Positional Breakdown

Head Coach

Brian Kelly,

1st year at Notre Dame, 21st year as a head coach, 25 years experience in coaching

Career record:  171-57-2 (.748 winning percentage)

Previous experience:

Grand Valley State, Assistant Coach, Head Coach, 17 seasons (13 as head coach)

Record: 118-35-2, 5 conference titles, 6 playoff appearances, 2 Div. II National Championships

Central Michigan University, Head Coach, 3 seasons

Record: 19-16, 1 MAC conference title, qualified for Motor City Bowl (Kelly did not coach bowl game)

University of Cincinnati, Head Coach, 3 seasons

Record: 34-6, 2 Big East conference titles, qualified for 2 BCS bowls (Orange and Sugar), 3-time Big East Coach of the Year (2007, 2008, 2009), ESPN / Home Depot National Coach of the Year (2009)

Coach Kelly comes to us with an impressive resume and a meteoric rise up through the coaching ranks from Grand Valley State.  For perspective, when we hired Coach Willingham, Coach Kelly had just lost his first appearance in the Div. II National Championship game.  Now, he's ascended to very pinnacle of the coaching profession, leading the University of Notre Dame.

For those that are concerned that Coach Kelly can't bring Notre Dame back to prominence, consider the fact that while at Cincinnati, he took a program that had never won 10 games in a season to back-to-back BCS bowls and an undefeated regular season in 2009.  That's an indication of how quickly he's learned to develop the talent of his players.  Indeed, the three year turnarounds he orchestrated at Central Michigan and Cincinnati coincides well with the 3-year championship mark set by every National Championship coach in Notre Dame's history.

Quarterback

Dayne Crist, RS Sophomore, 

3rd year at Notre Dame, 1st year as starter, consensus 5-star recruit out of high school

Career stats:  10-20, 130 yds., 1 TD, 1 INT; 5 rush, 16 yds., 0 TD

Backups:  Nate Montana (JR), Tommy Rees (FR), Andrew Hendrix (FR), Luke Massa (FR)

In his first year at the helm of the Irish offense, Dayne Crist comes in as the clear starter, taking over for Jimmy Clausen.  A highly touted prospect out of high school, Dayne is an imposing figure, at 6'4" 235 lbs.  He's got excellent athleticism, and a strong arm.  Really, he has the potential to be the perfect spread QB, if lacking top end speed.  Think Tim Tebow with more size and speed, better throwing mechanics, and nearly all of the intangibles (except perhaps the bravado).  The only question marks are his recovery from a torn ACL last season, his relative inexperience, and the difficulties in changing systems from a pro-style attack to the spread.  I expect him to be a little hesitant at the beginning of the year, and progress nicely as he settles into his new role - he will be one of the best QBs in the country by season's end, barring injury.

Running Back

Armando Allen, Senior, 

4th year at Notre Dame, 4th year as starter

Career stats:  33 games, 19 starts, 362 rushes for 1,630 yds (4.5 avg) 6 TD, 102 rec 695 yds (6.8 avg) 3 TD, 54 KR 1,247 yds (23.1 avg), 1 TD

Backups:  Cierre Wood (RS FR), Jonas Gray (JR), Robert Hughes (SR)

Armando Allen is returning for his 4th and final year of eligibility, and despite being entrenched as a starter, he has never shown the explosiveness that everyone has expected to see from him.  He does have one kickoff return TD to his credit, but he's never seemed to have the capability to get out in the open field and blow past people.  He is a solid option at running back, with good blocking skills, good all-around running skills, and if he ever learns the vision necessary to see his openings, very good speed.

I hope Armando develops into the breakaway back we've all been expecting him to be, but if he does not, we do have some other options in the backfield.  Cierre Wood, consensus 5-start running back talent that redshirted his freshman year last year, has moved up right behind Armando on the depth chart, and showed some serious skills in the Blue/Gold game.  If Armando can't start to find ways to make big gains from the line of scrimmage, Wood will snatch his starting position, and I doubt he'll ever give it back.

Robert Hughes will be a valuable change of pace as a more bruising (but surprisingly agile) back, probably turned to in short yardage situations.  And Jonas Gray has shown himself to be a solid all-around back, and will be given plenty of opportunities to make an impact as well.  In fact, we were so deep at the running back position that the coaching staff moved Theo Riddick to receiver so they could find opportunities to get him on the field more.

This unit should be the strength of the offense early in the season, and give defenses fits if they worry too much about the pass game.

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph, Junior

3rd year at Notre Dame, 3rd year as starter

Career stats:  23 games, 22 starts, 62 rec 704 yds (11.4 avg) 5 TD

Backups:  Tyler Eifert (SO), Mike Ragone (RS JR), Jake Golic (RS FR)

Kyle Rudolph may be the best player on the team.  A preseason All-American and arguably the odds-on favorite for the John Mackey Award, Rudolph has already shown himself to be the most complete tight end in the country.  With Coach Kelly talking about utilizing Kyle as a Wildcat, his freakish athleticism and size could find new avenues for productivity as well.  He creates some ridiculous matchup problems for opposing defenses, and I'm certain that he will be a lynchpin to this team's success, especially early in the season.  He will be lined up all over the field, as Kelly and Co. try to keep opposing defenses scrambling to cover him.

Of particular interest, however, is that while they have been resting Kyle during summer camp for a tweaked hammy, Coach Kelly had high praise for the 2nd tight end on the team, calling Tyler Eifert the best tight end he's ever coached.  Put that together with one of the best receiving corps in the country (more on that in a moment), and there should be plenty of weapons to keep this offense juiced.

Wide Receivers

Michael Floyd, Junior, 

3rd year at Notre Dame, 3rd year as starter

Career stats:  18 games, 17 starts, 92 rec 1,514 yds (16.5 avg) 16 TD

Duval Kamara, Senior, 

4th year at Notre Dame, 4th year as starter

Career stats:  36 games, 19 starts, 75 rec 781 yds (10.4 avg) 6 TD

Theo Riddick, Sophomore, 

2nd year at Notre Dame, 1st year as starter

Career stats:  12 games, 0 starts, 29 rushes, 160 yds (5.5 avg) 6 rec, 43 yds (7.2 avg), 37 KR, 849 yds (22.9 avg)

Backups:  John Goodman (JR), T.J. Jones (FR), Shaquelle Evans (SO)

Arguably one of the best receiving corps in the nation, the tools are in place for the spread passing attack to be extremely prolific this year.  Michael Floyd is arguably the best receiver in the nation, competing with A.J. Green (Georgia), Julio Jones (Alabama), Jonathan Baldwin (Pitt) and Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech) for that honor.

Duval Kamara has his last opportunity to shine at receiver, after a full career as a backup to the Tate and Floyd show.  If he has developed as a more complete receiver this offseason, he will have plenty of ball thrown his way as teams try to find ways to contain Floyd and Rudolph.

Theo Riddick was moved to the receiving corps from the running back logjam, and the coaching staff is excited with what he can do in space with the ball in his hands.  He'll get a lot of running opportunities out of the slot as well on reverses and end-arounds.

What's really impressive here, however, is the insane depth we have at receiver.  Tai-ler Jones is going to be a special receiver, and will be given plenty of opportunities this year to stretch the field.  John Goodman has proven himself to be an excellent possession receiver with good speed, very reminiscent of Samardzija. And Shaquelle Evans is on the two-deep as well, and has almost been lost in the shuffle with the ridiculous amount of talent, but he's no slouch and is probably the fastest receiver we will put on the field.

Offensive Line

Zack Martin, Sophomore, Left Tackle, 

2nd year at Notre Dame, 1st year as starter

0 games, 0 starts

Chris Stewart, Senior, Left Guard, 

4th year at Notre Dame, 4th year as starter

28 games, 22 starts

Dan Wenger, Senior, Center, 

2nd year at Notre Dame, 1st year as starter

29 games, 19 starts

Trevor Robinson, Junior, Right Guard, 

3rd year at Notre Dame, 3rd year as starter

22 games, 14 starts

Taylor Dever, Senior, Right Tackle, 

4th year at Notre Dame, 1st year as starter

18 games, 0 starts

Backups:  Matt Romine (SR LT), Mike Golic, Jr. (JR LG), Braxston Cave (JR C), Chris Watt (SO RG), Andrew Nuss (SR RT)

This is an interesting lineup for the Irish offensive line, and their ability to produce will largely decide how the season goes for the Fighting Irish.

The biggest surprise is redshirt freshman Zack Martin winning the left tackle position battle handily.  While he is inexperienced, and that's never good for the guy responsible for guarding the QB's backside, the fact that this coaching staff named him early on to that position and has never wavered tells me that he has the skills to be extremely successful there.

Next to him is 5th year Senior Chris Stewart, who brings a ton of experience and intelligence with him - Stewart is the first ever Div. I football player to start while also enrolled in his first year of law school.  He's got the size and experience to be a standout, but as an alumnus of Notre Dame Law School, I am somewhat worried about his ability to keep up with the demands of both Law School and football.  If he can keep his head in the game, he will be invaluable to the inexperienced Zack Martin.

Dan Wenger is in a heated battle at the center position, but his consistency in shotgun snaps means that he will probably hold onto the position until Braxston Cave (a stronger blocker) can demonstrate that he won't throw the ball away in a crucial situation.  He also brings a ton of experience to the table.

Trevor Robinson is one of those guys that just comes to work every day and gets his job done.  He started on the O-line his freshman year, and has had a stranglehold on the right guard position ever since, and probably will until he graduates.  No worries here.

Bookending the line is Taylor Dever, who has been a bit of a project during his career here.  He redshirted his freshman year and appeared mostly on special teams and in a reserve role the next two years.  Now, he's finally gotten himself in a position to start, and hopefully the experience of Robinson right next to him will keep him from getting lost.  This is the potentially weakest link on the offensive line. 

Coach Kelly has said that he believes he has 10 guys on the offensive line that can play championship football, so if injuries or inconsistencies plague any of the starters, there are plenty of guys chomping at the bit for their shot.

Defensive Line

Ethan Johnson, Junior, Defensive End, 

2nd year at Notre Dame, 1st year as starter

25 games, 15 starts

50 TT, 24 UT, 11.5 TFL (-60 yds), 7.5 sacks (-49 yds), 1 FF, 2 FR, 2 PBU

Ian Williams, Senior, Nose Guard, 

4th year at Notre Dame, 4th year as starter

25 games, 9 starts

39 TT, 18 UT, (per Rivals - UND has not update '09 stats for Ian)

Kapron Lewis-Moore, Junior, Defensive End, 

2nd year at Notre Dame, 1st year as starter

12 games, 9 starts

46 TT, 26 UT, 7 TFL (-23 yds), 2.5 sacks (-12.5 yds), 1 FF, 1 FR

Backups:  Hafis Williams (JR DE), Sean Cwynar (JR NG), Emeka Nwankwo (SR DE), Louis Nix (FR NG)

The defensive line has long been a problem for the Fighting Irish, as team have repeatedly gouged us on the ground the last few years.  This year, we should be much stouter against the run.  Switching to a 3-4 alignment allows us to take advantage of our strength (the linebacking corps) while minimizing an area where we lack depth (D line).  That said, we are very well situated on our D-line, with Ian Williams manning the Nose Guard with size, improved strength, and a ton of playing experience.  Rushing the passer will be two very talented pass rushers, who will both likely have big years.  Ethan Johnson has a ton of experience and is the most complete defensive lineman we have right now, but Kapron Lewis-Moore is a freakish athlete who may be much more of a threat than Johnson as the season wears on.

Linebackers

Darius Fleming, Junior, Outside Linebacker, 

3rd year at Notre Dame, 3rd year as starter

24 games, 10 starts

53 TT, 33 UT, 14.5 TFL (-55 yds), 5.5 sacks (-39 yds), 1 FF

Anthony McDonald*, Junior, Inside Linebacker, 

3rd year at Notre Dame, 1st year as starter

12 games, 0 starts

10 TT, 5 UT, 5 AT 

Manti Te'o, Sophomore, Inside Linebacker, 

2nd year at Notre Dame, 2nd year as starter

12 games, 10 starts

63 TT, 29 UT, 5.5 TFL (-25 yds), 1 sack (-12 yds), 1 PBU

Brian Smith**, Senior, Outside Linebacker, 

2nd year at Notre Dame, 1st year as starter

12 games, 9 starts

150 TT, 81 UT, 13.5 TFL (-75 yds), 5 sacks (-44 yds), 2 FF, 3 FR (35 yds), 2 PBU, 3 INT (35 yds)

Backups:  Kerry Neal (SR OLB), Steve Filer (JR OLB), Carlo Calabrese (SO ILB), Steve Paskorz (SR ILB)

* Anthony McDonald is injured for the opening game, and will likely only see backup duty - he is the probable long-term starter.

** Coach Kelly has talked about Steve Filer and most recently Kerry Neal as possibly supplanting Brian Smith, but I think that is more motivation than anything - Brian's experience and motor will keep him as the #1 guy long term, with Neal and Filer seeing plenty of time.

This unit is anchored by underclassman Manti Te'o, one of the most heralded recruits in Notre Dame history, who thus far has lived up to his billing.  He's an absolute beast, and his athleticism will definitely create problems for opposing defenses who want to run against him.

The veteran leader of the squad is Brian Smith, who it seems has been playing linebacker for 20 years now.  He's being pushed by the talent behind him, with both Kerry Neal and Steve Filer being mentioned by Coach Kelly as possibly passing Brian at the outside slot.

Darius Fleming is the pass rush specialist, who will certainly wreak some havoc in opposing backfields this year.

Joining Manti inside will be some combination of Anthony McDonald and Carlo Calabrese.  McDonald had the edge coming out of camp until he got sidelined by injury, so Calabrese will get the nod to start the season.

This is a very deep unit, however.  The competition at outside linebacker will be heated all season, and the while nobody will supplant Manti short of injury, there are several other players pushing for playing time inside as well.

Secondary

Darrin Walls, Senior, Cornerback, 

5th year at Notre Dame, 4th year as starter

32 games, 21 starts

99 TT, 45 UT, 3.5 TFL (-18 yds), 2 FF, 16 PBU, 2 INT (75 yds)

Gary Gray, Senior, Cornerback, 

4th year at Notre Dame, 2nd year as starter

20 games, 7 starts

43 TT, 32 UT, 3 PBU, 3 INT (95 yds) 

Harrison Smith, Senior, Safety, 

4th year at Notre Dame, 3rd year as starter

12 games, 10 starts

126 TT, 78 UT, 15 TFL (-51 yds), 3.5 sacks (-26 yds), 11 PBU

Jamoris Slaughter, Junior, Safety, 

3rd year at Notre Dame, 2nd year as starter

12 games, 1 start

14 TT, 12 UT

Backups:  Robert Blanton (JR CB), Lo Wood (FR CB), Dan McCarthy (JR S), Zeke Motta (SO S)

This unit worries me.  If they stay healthy, the front line players are very good.  Harrison Smith is back at his natural position with a staff that knows how to teach him to play, Jamoris Slaughter can bring the wood, and Walls and Gray have both shown the ability to be shut-down corners.  Robert Blanton coming in as the nickel back makes this an excellent starting unit, with Dan McCarthy to come in and give people a breather at times.

Problem is, we're about 1 or 2 injuries away from complete disaster.  There is almost no depth here, and if we lose a couple of starters, we're going to have some very green players back there who may get torched for a lot of yards.

So light a candle in the Grotto each week for this unit, that they can stay healthy and productive all season long.

*****

2010 Schedule

Now, a week-by-week breakdown of our opponents for 2010, with predictions for each game.

9/04/2010  vs. Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue is, in my opinion, the perfect opponent to start the season against.  They should be a decent team this year, but the Irish have more talent and should win this game.  Last year, a poor defense allowed Purdue to keep it close, and a last second touchdown pass by Jimmy Clausen sealed the win.
This year, look for the Irish defense to be improved, and the Purdue offense may take a little while to get going under new quarterback Robert Mavre, a transfer from the University of Miami.  While the Irish offensive attack may also take some time to develop, Purdue's weak secondary should allow the Irish passing attack to gain some confidence early in the season.
The battle to watch here will be Purdue's defensive end, Ryan Kerrigan, doing battle with our new offensive tackle Zack Martin.  If Martin is as good as the Irish coaching staff thinks he is, and he can handle Kerrigan, that will bode very well for the season.  If Martin can't contain Kerrigan and we are forced to keep a back in to double team him, the Irish may struggle a bit.
Optimistic prediction: Notre Dame 49 Purdue 24 (W)
Notre Dame comes out of the gate guns blazing, torching Purdue's weak secondary en route to an impressive debut for Coach Kelly.
Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 24 Purdue 14 (W)
Notre Dame's offense is productive, but their inexperience rears its ugly head, shooting themselves in the foot on multiple occasions, allowing Purdue to keep it close.  But we do get some glimpses of what this team is capable of.
Pessimistic prediction: Notre Dame 14 Purdue 17 (L)
The Irish can't keep Dayne Crist upright and as a result Notre Dame loses the turnover battle. Purdue comes out looking like the team that beat Ohio State last year, and find a way to squeak out a victory.

9/11/2010 vs. Michigan Wolverines

The Michigan program is still struggling to find its feet under coach Rich Rodriguez.  There is a lot of team speed, and their offensive line should be much improved this season.  They have two dangerous QBs, Denard Robinson and Tate Forcier, that are still battling for the starting position.  Robinson is a speedster that can be deangreous running out of the backfield while a little inconsistent as a passer.  Tate Forcier is a much better passer, but isn't as dangerous running the football.
Michigan is still looking for receivers to step up their game and fuel this spread offense, and they are dangerously shallow at several positions.  Unfortunately, we get them early in the season before the lack of depth really starts to damage this team's potency.
Even Michigan fans don't really know what to expect here.  If Rich Rod goes 5-7 again, he'll surely be canned at the end of the season.  However, if he finds a way to win 8 or 9 games, then he'll develop some momentum to build this program long-term.
The key matchup to watch here will be Michigan's cornerback Troy Woolfolk versus Notre Dame's wide receiver Michael Floyd.  Indeed, I may go so far as to say whoever wins that battle wins the game.  Michigan will score some points, but they will also struggle to keep Notre Dame from scoring if they can't contain Floyd one-on-one with their senior cornerback.
Optimistic prediction: Notre Dame 35 Michigan 10 (W)
Notre Dame's offense, confident off the previous week's torching of Purdue, comes out with a lot of confidence and Michigan can't figure out how to cover both Floyd and Rudolph at the same time.  Meanwhile, Michigan still can't seem to find consistency at the quarterback position and disgruntled Michigan fans start to call for Rich Rodriguez's head.
Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 45 Michigan 35 (W)
I think that both teams score a lot of points, but ultimately the Irish advantage at the receiver position means that Michigan just can't keep pace.
Pessimistic prediction:  Notre Dame 14 Michigan 38 (L)
Notre Dame's offense continues to struggle finding its identity, while Michigan finally starts to get it under Rich Rod's system, as the defense doesn't have an answer for Michigan's team speed.

9/18/2010 at Michigan State Spartans

This is the first true toss-up game for me.  Although last year's Irish found a way to hold off Michigan State with a late game interception, we weren't the more physical team that day.  We need to establish our credibility as a tough team this week, and after playing two teams who we probably will beat through the air, we need to lean on our stable of running backs and our All-American tight end to beat the Spartans at their own game.
This series has been entertaining to watch the past several years.  The overtime loss in 2005 with the infamous flag planting. The monsoon comeback win in 2006 where MSU players guarded midfield after the game and John L. Smith slapped himself during his mental breakdown. Then two years of getting manhandled before finally winning a shootout last year. This year's game could be another classic in the series.
This game's matchup to watch isn't head-to-head, but is actually Michigan State middle linebacker Greg Jones versus Notre Dame's middle linebacker Manti Te'o.  Jones was last year's Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, and is a pre-season consensus 1st team All-American.  While we will have some success through the air throwing to our receivers, we have struggled to match Michigan State's toughness the last few years.  With Kelly's theme this offseason being to re-establish the toughness of the Fighting Irish, I hope that we can use our depth at running back to pound at Jones and show the country that we'll go toe-to-toe with anyone.
Meanwhile, Manti Te'o has established himself, in only his sophomore year, as the leader of this defense.  He's as talented as they come, and now that he's lining up inside, he is in a position to make a name for himself as an All-American.  If he can match or exceed Jones' toughness inside this game, I expect the Irish to find a way to win.
Optimistic prediction: Noter Dame 38 Michigan State 24 (W)
Notre Dame rushes for nearly 200 yards and shows the country that they are a legit team this year.
Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 48 Michigan State 45 (2 OT) (W)
I think this will be one of the best games of the season.  Similar to the 2005 game in Coach Weis' first year, the Irish battle with the Spartans all day long, sending it into overtime and another classic close finish in this series.
Pessimistic prediction: Notre Dame 17 Michigan State 31 (L)
Notre Dame's offense can't find a solution for Greg Jones, and the Spartans pound the ball down our throats en route to an easy win over an Irish team still looking for its identity.

9/25/2010 vs. Stanford Cardinal

The Cardinal are a pretty solid football team this year, with an experienced offensive line and an up and coming quarterback in Andrew Luck.  They lost man-beast Toby Gerhart this offseason, and he left some pretty big shoes to fill.
The matchup to watch here will be the Cardinal secondary against the Notre Dame passing attack.  Even in my most pessimistic mind, I can't see Notre Dame's offense not hitting its stride at this point in the season against a defense that was near the bottom of the NCAA last year.
While the prognosticators are predicting a very good season for the Cardinal, I just don't see them finding a replacement for Gerhart, and I think they take a step backwards this year.
Optimistic prediction:  Notre Dame 52 Stanford 24 (W)
Notre Dame's offense absolutely torches an out manned defense and cruises to an easy victory.  Jim Harbaugh has a John L. Smithesque meltdown in the post-game press conference.
Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 35 Stanford 27 (W)
I think that Stanford will grind it out against us, but they lack the offensive firepower to score enough points to beat us.
Pessimistic prediction:  Notre Dame 24 Stanford 21 (W)
An 0-3 start lights a fire under this team, and the chance to light up a weak defense means that the offense starts to find some rhythm.  Stanford's grind it out style keeps it close, but Kelly finally gets his first win of the season.

10/02/2010 at Boston College Eagles

I hate BC, and I'm glad that this is the last game in the series for the indefinite future.  Boston College was a very good team last year, and they return their QB, almost all of their linemen, and the running back (Montel Harris) that had a breakout sophomore season last year.  They also add in Mark Herzlich to a solid linebacking corps, as he is returning after battling cancer.
That said, this BC team has a glaring weakness at receiver, and being one-dimensional is going to lead to some issues for them this year.  Notre Dame will stack the box, and bet on BC not being able to beat our corners.
Optimistic prediction: Notre Dame 28 Boston College 0 (W)
Bob Diaco's unit pitches their first shutout of the season, as Montel Harris is bottled up and Dave Schinskie gets sacked 6 times.  Notre Dame's offense continues to fire on all cylinders as Notre Dame enters the Top 10 with Gameday coming to town next week.
Realistic prediction:  Notre Dame 31 Boston College 19 (W)
The Irish continue to produce on offense, and Boston College continues to rely on Harris to shoulder the load.  Ultimately, though, the lack of a strong passing game seals BC's fate.
Pessimistic prediction: Notre Dame 24 Boston College 21 (W)
If Mark Herzlich is back in top form, the Irish offense may struggle against this talented linebacking corps.  But ultimately, even at their best, BC's offense scores maybe 3 TD.

10/09/2010 vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

This may be the game of the year for the Irish.  The Panthers could be undefeated at this point if they get past a tough Utah team in the opener.  They have a stud running back in Dion Lewis, and one of the nation's best receivers in Jonathan Baldwin.  They are pre-season top 15 and the sexy pick to win the Big East this year.  If the Irish play up to their potential, this could be a situation where Gameday is on campus, if LSU/Florida and Florida St./Miami have teams that underperform.
There are two match-ups to watch here.  First is the Heisman battle between Jonathan Baldwin and Michael Floyd.  Both players are great pro prospects that have sick highlight reels.  The Irish offense is much more pass oriented than Pitt's, however, so the Irish receiver will have more chances for a big game.
The second is a corollary to that, as both teams have a new quarterback.  If Notre Dame's running attack can match the production of Dion Lewis, Dayne Crist has a lot more weapons at his disposal than his counterpart Tino Sunseri.
Optimistic prediction: Notre Dame 34 Pittsburgh 31 (W)
The Irish win a big-time game on a big-time stage, moving them solidly into the middle of the national title talk.  The Notre Dame haters will say that the Irish haven't really played anyone and that Pitt was overrated.  But, they will be solidly in the top ten and moving up with a bullet as Kelly Fever starts to grip the nation.
Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 17 Pittsburgh 24 (L)
The Irish may have made a pretty good showing this far, rejuvenating the Irish fanbase and proving that Kelly is truly a magician at turning around programs, but ultimately the Panthers are too much, as we fall in a hard fought battle, proving that we belong, but aren't quite there yet.

Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 10 Pittsburgh 31 (L)

If we are struggling, this game might not be close, as Pitt has plenty of firepower to score points, and we may still be shooting ourselves in the foot as we try to develop in this offense. 

10/16/2010 vs. Western Michigan Broncos

Okay, so my biggest concern about this game is that it ends up marking the end of Notre Dame's sellout streak.  With the mess Kevin White left behind, and the sad state of the economy, Jack Swarbrick is hoping that by scheduling a regional school for their first game against the Irish, that they will travel well enough to salvage the sellout streak.  As far as the game itself goes, this should be an easy win for the Irish.
Optimistic prediction:  Notre Dame 42 Western Michigan 0 (W)
As the Irish have gained some serious street cred by beating Pitt, the Irish start to do something we haven't done in quite a while, demolish the weaker teams on the schedule.  We sub in the 2nd string in the 2nd half, up 35-0, but the Broncos still can't seem to do anything, as we complete the shutout.
Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 38 Western Michigan 10 (W)
Notre Dame starts out in a bit of a funk after the Pitt loss, but then finds their groove and pull away late to win easily.
Pessimistic prediction: Notre Dame 24 Western Michigan 14 (W)
The 2-4 record means that this team is still struggling with their confidence, and they play down to the opponent.  They win, but it's not pretty.

10/23/2010 at U.S. Naval Academy Midshipmen

If there is one thing I have confidence in this year, it is that Brian Kelly will find a way to beat Navy.  Even if we struggle out of the gate, we should know what we're doing by this point in the season.  One tradition I expect Brian Kelly to reinstate at the University of Notre Dame is our annual beatdown of our good friends at the Naval Academy.  Here's win 1 in the beginning of another 40+ game winning streak.
The match-up to watch here is Manti Te'o versus All-American candidate quarterback Ricky Dobbs.  Against the triple option attack, Te'o's ability to read and react to Dobbs' decisions will decide the outcome of this game.  Ultimately, I believe Te'o has more athleticism than Dobbs, and he has the intelligence to make sound decisions, frustrating the Navy offense. Even Dobbs' athleticism isn't going to be enough for Navy to beat Notre Dame again.
Navy will slow the game down, limiting our points, but we do win this one.
Optimistic prediction: Notre Dame 42, Navy 0 (W)
The vaunted Navy run game is simply ineffective against the front 7 of Notre Dame, and despite only getting 7 positions, they are outmatched on defense, giving up a touchdown every time.
Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 24, Navy 10 (W)
Notre Dame can't score alot of points when it doesn't touch the ball as much, but Navy can't turn long drives into points, which ultimately spells their downfall.
Pessimistic prediction:  Notre Dame 17, Navy 14 (W)
The talented Dobbs does manage to keep the game close, but the Irish win with a last second field goal.

10/30/2010 vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

Yawn.  A Conference USA opponent?  Really?  I love going to Notre Dame football games, and if not for the fact that I fully expect to be able to pick up a ticket for $10, I would probably skip this one and watch it at home while I work on my Halloween costume.
As a program, the Golden Hurricanes are on the downslide of their apex as a football program.  They reached the top of their game with an 11-3 season in 2008, after which offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn left for Auburn and a bunch of seniors graduated, leading to last year's 5-7 record.
While I don't really blame Swarbrick for scheduling this game - at the time, they were a top-tier C-USA team - hindsight is 20/20 and this is not an exciting matchup for the Irish fanbase.  Plus, we have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.
Of note, we may actually win the time of possession in this one, as Tulsa employs a no-huddle spread offense.  Thus, if our defense is shutting them down, we'll be on the field more on offense, despite the fact that we may score a ton of points against an overmatched defense.
Optimistic prediction: Notre Dame 63, Tulsa 0 (W)
Brian Kelly pulls the first string in the first half, and we're on our third string QB by the end of the 4th, and we're still scoring points running dive plays with running back Patrick Coughlin.
Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 52, Tulsa 24 (W)
Okay, so the pace of this game means that Tulsa will score some points with their high-powered offense, but not nearly enough to keep up with the highlight reel that is the Notre Dame offense.
Pessimistic prediction: Notre Dame 31, Tulsa 24 (W)
Despite being the better team on the field, this team is apathetic and busy looking ahead to Utah, and comes out flat.  Tulsa jumps out to an early lead, and then Coach Kelly kindly reminds them at halftime that WE'RE PLAYING F!#@$%(& TULSA!!!  Then we settle down and manage to eke out an ugly win.

11/13/2010 vs. Utah Utes

Unlike Tulsa, I can't believe anyone would actually complain about adding the Utes to our schedule.  Since 2003, when Urban Meyer took over the program, they've gone 10-2, 12-0, 7-5, 8-5, 9-4, 13-0, and 10-3 - with not one but TWO undefeated seasons capped by BCS bowl wins.  The most recent one being a convincing win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  They've won 9 straight bowl games over the past 12 years. And while they may be in the Mountain West this year, they have made enough of a name of themselves that they've been invited to join the Pac-10.
You try and tell me this team isn't legit.
Optimistic prediction:  Notre Dame 31, Utah 30 (W)
An epic game which Notre Dame ekes out in epic fashion.
Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 24, Utah 34 (L)
Utah is just a little too much for us, as they circle this game on their schedule and play with a chip on their shoulder.
Pessimistic prediction: Notre Dame 17, Utah 42 (L)
Utah overwhelms an outmatched Notre Dame team that had gotten a little overconfident during their win streak, thinking they had solved their problems.

11/20/2010 vs. U.S. Military Academy Black Knights

This is a really nice game to add to the schedule, and if we are going to schedule so-called "winnable" games, this is how to do it.  A historic opponent in a 'historic' venue, highlighting the history and tradition of Notre Dame football in a huge television market.
The Black Knights will be completely outmatched in this game, but it will be a great celebration of the respect and tradition these two programs share.
Prediction:  We win.  Big.  I don't care how optimistic/pessimistic you are, this is an easy game for the Irish. (W)

11/27/2010 at Southern Cal Trojans

So, here we come to the end of the season, and depending on how the season unfolds, this could either be an epic game with national title implications, or a lackluster meeting between two mediocre teams.  Either way, this is the one game, more than any other, everyone at Notre Dame wants to win.  This rivalry has been one-sided for way too long, and it's time for Notre Dame to reassert their competitiveness in this game.
The match-up to watch here is actually Brian Kelly versus Lane Kiffin.  With Kiffin's questionable past, and Kelly's pristine record, this should become a classic good-versus-evil game for as long as the two coaches are at the respective schools.  The talent level is similar, and this will ultimately come down to coaching.  And, since it's the end of the season, both coaches will have had a chance to work out any kinks and get the team on the track they want them on.
Optimistic prediction:  Notre Dame 37, Southern Cal 21 (W)
Notre Dame comes out firing and never looks back.  Gameday is on campus, and all eyes are on this game as Notre Dame has one last opportunity against an unquestionably elite opponent to prove that this year's Fighting Irish are for real and deserve their shot at the national title.
Realistic prediction: Notre Dame 34, Southern Cal 31 (W)
These teams battled out a close-fought battle last year, where Jimmy Clausen had the opportunity to cement himself as a legend in the Irish history books with a last second come-from-behind victory over our hated rivals.  Alas, that game, and subsequently the rest of the season, fell just short.  This year, with the Irish squad improving steadily over the course of the season and the Trojans without much to play for due to their probation, the Irish finally exorcise this demon.
Pessimistic prediction: Notre Dame 31, Southern Cal 34 (L)
This team still hasn't learned how to win, and their final defeat of the season returns the Irish to yet another 6-6 season, with grumblings about whether or not the Irish will ever compete for a national title again.

Bowl Predictions

Now that we have a pessimistic prediction, a realistic prediction, and an optimistic prediction, here are my projected bowl match-ups for the Fighting Irish come season's end.

Pessimist view:

Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
Notre Dame Fighting Irish v. East Carolina Pirates

Even the pessimist in me says this team is going bowling this year.  I just don't see the breaks going so poorly that we end up with another sub-.500 season.  There is too much talent on this team to falter that much.  That said, 6-6 is the basement for this team, which would probably place us in the Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl.

Realist view:

Fiesta Bowl
Notre Dame Fighting Irish v. Texas Longhorns

After looking back through my predictions, I think that 10-2 (as I predicted) may be expecting a bit much.  But if that's what I feel after the game-by-game breakdown, I'm gonna stick with it. (Ultimately, I think 9-3 is a reasonable prediction for this team, given the question marks and depth issues)  Kelly's offense will be tough to stop once they hit their stride, and the defense should be able to hold together enough to keep us in almost every game.  At 9-3, I think we go to the Champs Sports Bowl and get the University of Miami.

Optimist view:

BCS National Championship Game
Notre Dame Fighting Irish v. Alabama Crimson Tide

I know, I know.  I'm a sycophantic fanboy optimist for even considering the idea of Notre Dame playing for all the marbles this year.  New system, new coach, new quarterback.  I hear ya. I do.

But, there are no games on the schedule that are out of reach for this team, and if everything breaks their way, it could happen.  Even the optimist in me says that if we make it this far, we lose the game.  I just don't think we're ready to beat the elite teams on the biggest stage quite yet.  I'm picturing something similar to what would have happened if we had managed to win against USC in 2005 - a BCS championship whupping like the one that Florida laid on Ohio State a couple years back.

But, should by some miracle we actually make it this far, you never know what the luck of the Irish could bring...

Notre Dame Football 2010: Sycophantic fanboy optimism

Like many die-hard Irish fans, I am a frequent reader of NDNation.com, one of the leading Notre Dame fan sites. I have long since stopped posting regularly, because I find that there is a cadre of pessimists and realists on that board that shout down any unabashed optimism as lacking intelligent thought.

One recent post stated "there is a difference between optimism, and blind unadulterated and unabashed sycophantic fanboy optimism."


My question is this - does believing that we have a legitimate shot at the national title this year mean that you are engaging in blind unadulterated and unabashed sycophantic fanboy optimism?


What happened to the Notre Dame I grew up with?


I remember vividly the wild optimism that came with an 8-0 start under Tyrone Willingham, and even more clearly the national title dreams that accompanied the Irish into that epic battle against Southern Cal in Weis' first season as well.  I was only knee-high to a grasshopper, but Faust came out of the gates with a big win over LSU, launching them to the top spot in the polls for 1 week.


Both of those coaching tenures ended up crashing and burning, but have we as a fan-base become so jaded and disenfranchised that we no longer believe in the magic of the Fighting Irish?


Besides, it's not like we have no evidence of Kelly's ability to coach.  Keep in mind, Brian Kelly won every single game he coached last year - at Cincinnati.  Every one.  With the additional resources available to him here at Notre Dame, is it really so far-fetched to believe he can do the same here?  And it's not like this is his first rodeo - he's been a successful head coach in college for over 20 years now. He did it at Grand Valley State, he did it at Central Michigan, he did it at Cincinnati, and there's no reason to believe he won't do it here.


Sure, there's the installation of a new offense and defensive scheme.  But unlike last time we went down this road, this team isn't very lacking in talent or depth.  Sure, we're a little shallow at corner and safety.  But the overall talent level here is at a level it hasn't been since Lou Holtz.  We have a 5-star rated QB (Crist), 5-star rated WR (Floyd), 5-star rated RB (Wood), 5-star rated TE (Rudolph) and a 5-star rated LB (Te'o).  And most of the other positions are 4-star talent and loaded with depth, especially on the all-important offensive line.


Our opposing coaches have the disadvantage of not having scouting material on how Kelly will use this talent in his schemes, and will be scrambling all year to figure out how to combat us.  And with all of the skill position talent, all but maybe one or two of the teams we face will be quite simply outmatched in terms of athleticism when we're on offense.


If you watch the practices, the boys are out there having fun, practicing high-tempo, high-energy, and (dare I say it?) high-fun.  They are focused and energized and they believe in their new coach and staff.


So, call me an unabashed sycophantic fanboy if you want.  But I believe in this coach, and I believe in this team. And I believe not only that we can, but that we WILL win 'em all this year.  Because We Are N.D. Count it.

Irish Blogger Gathering: Let's Get Offensive

So, the IBG is back, which is good for me, since I've been neglecting my blog for the past month. Apparently, buying a house involves using a lot of your free time for pesky things like moving and home maintenance. Either way, here's my response to the latest set of questions:

1. First, before officially shifting focus to what matters most, let's take a moment to offer a way too early evaluation of Team Kelly's recruiting efforts. They've got verbals from some highly touted prospects (Matt Hegarty, Ben Koyack, Jordan Prestwood) and are in the hunt for quite a few more (Aaron Lynch, George Atkinson, Justice Hayes), but it seems like this class lacks the flair and star power of Charlie Weis's classes. We're not even in the hunt for a Rivals five-star rated prospect and we've already taken as many three-stars as the '07 and '08 classes combined. Sure, Kelly can transform two-stars into seven-stars, but the numbers of the last ten years don't lie--championships are won with teams chock full of four and five star talent. Are you at least a little worried at this point or still in the RKG Honeymoon period?

I'm not too worried at this point. Kelly closed an excellent class last year, considering all of the turmoil around the program with Weis' departure and the poor product on the field. Losing Matt James certainly devalues the class, but that was an unforeseen tragedy that nobody could have helped. This year, we did whiff on Bubba Starling, but the class is solid. I also wouldn't be surprised if Notre Dame gets on the radar of some of the 5 star recruits during the season if we perform above expectations.

As is, though, I think it's a solid class, and it reflects the prevailing wisdom about the Kelly hire - everybody seems to think he'll be good, but they want to see some proof on the field, as Notre Dame's last 4 hires have not performed. Once we start winning games, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some recruits consider changing their commitments.

2. The Irish switch from a pro-style offense to the spread this season. We saw it unveiled in the spring game and it is (understandably) a work in progress. That being said the Irish have a veritable bevy of talent, size, and speed at the skill positions. In general, what's your take on the switch to the spread and how high or low should expectations for the offense be going into the year?

I generally prefer the more traditional pro-style offense, however I think that the spread that Kelly is instituting will allow us to take advantage of the strengths of this team - namely, speed and skill at the receiver and running back positions. Coach Weis' recruiting has stocked the talent cupboard at the skill positions, and this offense will allow that talent to work in space.

As far as expectations go, I'd expect the offense to be a work in progress as the season progresses. All the practice in the world isn't going to get you completely ready for game situations. However, I do think that as the team progresses through the season, they will find what works for them and by the end of the season, I would expect a high-octane explosive offense. My biggest concern at this point is the trip to Michigan State in our 3rd game. I think that Purdue and Michigan should be wins, as both programs are in somewhat of a state of disarray right now. Both should be improved this year, but I just don't think either team has the horses to run with us.

However, Michigan State is a pretty stable program that has been running their offense and defense for a while now. They've got a solid roster with a lot of talent. That game, more than any other, will tell me how good of a coach that Brian Kelly is. Lose to Purdue, and it's understandable to stumble out of the gate. Michigan is a rivalry game, and Rich-Rod is going into his third year at the helm, so they could find a way to beat us if the offense continues to struggle. However, by the third game of the season, the teaching abilities of this staff should start to show up. I'm not saying the Michigan State is a must-win game (although, aren't they all really must-win games?), but I want to see a team that is confident and starting to gel and understand their assignments.

3. Three-year starting quarterback Jimmy Clausen has loaded his mom, dad, and free-loading brothers into the family stretch Hummer and taken off for the greener pastures of professional football. Dayne Crist is tasked with stepping into the big, 28 TD, 7:1 TD to INT ratio shoes Jimmy leaves behind. How are you feeling about him taking the reins to Kelly's vaunted spread offense? Do you see there being a significant drop-off with the Great Dayne at the helm or is he going to come out guns a-blazin' a la Brady Quinn in '05?

At the beginning of the season, we'll see a significant drop-off from last year - Jimmy Clausen was a hell of a quarterback, regardless of what you may think of him off the field. However, I think that Dayne Crist's learning curve will be pretty steep. I think that as the season progresses, he'll gain more confidence in his knee, himself, and the offense. By mid-season, we should be clicking on all cylinders. I expect this offense, with the level of talent on the field, to really start lighting it up by the end of the season, especially with the confidence gained from feasting on the October schedule.

Should he tweak his knee, then all bets are off.

4. When a new coach takes over there tends to be a couple of players that haven't seen any significant playing time (or at least haven't made an impact) that unexpectedly emerge as major contributors (see: Samardzija, Jeff in '05). There are plenty of candidates on the offensive side of the ball, but you're only allowed to pick one horse in this derby. Who's it going to be?

John Goodman. I think that his versatility will get him a lot of reps this season. He played quarterback in high school, so I wouldn't be at all surprised for us to use him as a runner on end-arounds, which leaves open the possibilities of some trickeration as well. He has good height (6' 3") and soft hands, and we may be hearing a lot of Samardzija comparisons if he shows up like I think he might.

5. It's preseason which means it's appropriate for all college football fans to bathe in Kool-Aid and allow themselves to dream of invading Glendale, Arizona this January en route to claiming a national championship. Tears of joy will be shed, flights will be missed, and days--if not weeks--of "sick" leave from work will be utilized. I want that more than that weird, fat lady in Napoleon Dynamite wanted that model ship. What needs to happen this season on the offensive side of the ball for this dream to become reality?

Not to sound like a broken record, as it seems that everyone is saying the same thing. And to make it even more cliche, I'm going to quote 'The Program' (please excuse the language, the movie is rated R):

Alvin Mack Manti Te'o enters the bar, goes to Joe Kane Dayne Crist's table, plops a copy of Sports Illustrated down in front of Dayne.

MANTI
Hey, man, you seen this?

On the cover is a picture of Joe Dayne and ONE OTHER QUARTERBACK, TIM WAYMEN JAKE LOCKER. The coverline reads, HEISMAN HOPEFULS: THE YEAR OF THE QUARTERBACK.

MANTI
(ribbing Dayne)
You must be some very bad-ass motherfucker.

Dayne stares at the cover. He's more stunned than elated.

DAYNE
Jesus...

LATTIMER KAPRON LEWIS-MOORE (Lattimer minus the steroids)
What? You didn't know?

DAYNE
I knew there was gonna be an article. I didn't know it was gonna be on the cover.

MANTI
Shit, we do all the work. You get all the pub. Too bad we're not allowed to hit you in practice. Be fun to kick the shit out of a Heisman Trophy Candidate.

DAYNE
I guess you'll have to wait till we get to the pros.

MANTI
(to Darnell Jefferson Tai-Ler Jones)
Beer boy, get me some.

TAI-LER
Are you serious?

MANTI
Does it look like I'm serious?

Tai-ler leaves the table to get the beer. Dayne drains his beer, pours another. Kapron starts to read from the article.

KAPRON
Listen to this. "Notre Dame has a solid nucleus returning, but the fighting Irish, coming off three disappointing seasons, will only go as far as the strong right arm of Heisman Candidate Dayne Crist will take them." That right, Dayne? You gonna lead us to the promised land?

DAYNE
I'm gonna lead... but can you follow?

Muted chuckles, but set faces. The challenge accepted. Dayne chugs his beer, pours another.

That pretty much sums it up.

6. ***BONUS*** The arrival of college football means the arrival of perhaps the greatest American pastime: Tailgating. The assumption is that you're going to be heading to at least one game in the Bend this year which means you'll have at least one opportunity to tailgate your face off. What home games are you planning on attending, where do you normally tailgate when you're out for a game, what's your typical tailgate like (we talking a great spread and a selection of imported beverages or a pack of Bubba burgers and about 20 30-racks of Natty?), and are you inviting your loyal readers?

As a South Bend native, I will of course be tailgating at every opportunity this season. Some Saturdays I will have to work, but I'm hoping to make it to every game, as I get out at 1 pm. Certainly have plans for Purdue and Michigan, the rest are flexible. As far as where I tailgate, that depends on who is in town. I don't usually host my own tailgate, unless you count the pre-tailgate party at my house before walking to campus.

One of my more frequent tailgating stops is with Sarah at Bad Trade , a fellow ND blogger and law school classmate. She sets up right behind the Jamison Inn, just off of the corner of Twyckenham and Ivy Court. It's usually a pretty standard setup - grilling and beers (my beer of choice: Miller Lite - I'm a cheap date). My loyal readers are always invited to tailgate with me, but they'll have to e-mail me beforehand to see where I'm setting up any given weekend. Or, they can just swing by the house early morning, and enjoy the free parking and short stroll to campus.

*****

So, there are my two cents worth. Thanks for reading, and Go Irish!

College Football News and Notes

So, life has been hectic as ever lately, with multiple business and personal trips sandwiched around moving offices and buying and moving into a new home.  Things still won't settle down properly for a few more weeks, but with all of the turmoil in college football, I had to weigh in with my thoughts.

U$C Sanctions

Pretty much as I expected, the sanctions reported from the NCAA were little more than a slap on the wrist.  A 2-year post-season bowl ban, a reduction of approximately 20 scholarships, and vacating wins from 2004 (their championship season).  This is almost exactly what Alabama got for their 2000 violations.

Is it going to hurt recruiting?  Yeah.  Are they going to spend a couple years as a mediocre team?  Maybe.  But what really bugs me here is that Alabama has already proven that this is little more than a speed bump.

You want to achieve compliance?  Give these sanctions some teeth.  Now, I'm not proposing that we hand out the death penalty like Chiclets, here.  Having USC as a relevant program is healthy for college football.  However, the NCAA needs to send out a clear message that if you get involved in cheating and paying players, you are going to suffer.

My proposal?  A 4-year postseason ban.  Think about how tough that will be to pitch recruits this year.  "Hey, Mr. 5-star.  Come on down to Hollywood, where you can see all the glitz and glamour and hang out with Snoop Dogg.  Oh, but there's no way you'll win a championship, unless you stay for a 5th year.  I mean, we could win every game you play, but have nothing to show for it."

It's not the death penalty, but it will create a recruiting vaccuum similar to the one Notre Dame suffered by Willingham's incompetence.  Having to rebuild the team from that kind of blow is a significant challenge, and creates a financial disincentive that would actually have some impact.

Right now, all Coach Cheatie McKiffin has to tell some kid is "Hey, bud.  You'll probably sit back in the depth chart for the first couple years anyway, so when you hit your junior and senior years, we'll be poised to blow it up.  Also, since we can't play in the postseason anyway, we can spend those two years playing young kids like you and priming us for a run at the championship and the start of another dynasty.  Here's your Escalade and the keys to your penthouse suite.  The Playboy bunny should be there waiting for you."

Once again, the NCAA disappoints.  Shouldn't have expected anything else.

*****

Conference Realignment

Okay, so things are really starting to heat up, with the Pac-10 now getting into the mix and adding fuel to the fire.

Here's where we stand, according to the current media reports:

Nebraska to the Big 10.

Colorado to the Pac-10.

The Pac-10 has offered not only Colorado, but also Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M.

The consensus right now, is that we are most likely looking at:

A 16-team Pac-10, which is essentially a Pac-10/Big 12 merger.

This will prompt the Big Ten to add 5 total teams, expanding to 16.  Nebraska's already in.  Missouri is chomping at the bit.  That leaves 3 more schools. So begins the debate over who else they will add, and where does this merry-go-round stop?

Here are the possibilities, conference by conference:

Big Ten Conference Possibilities


Notre Dame

Of course, we're going to be the first name out of everyone's mouth,  Everyone knows that we're the big fish that the Big Ten wants to reel in.  But I really don't think it's going to happen, at least not for now.  I see us sticking with the status quo, and seeing what we can do to keep the Big East as a functioning non-football conference.

There is one scenario where I could see Notre Dame joining.  If the BCS conferences form 4 16-team conferences, and essentially close everyone else out of the BCS pie, then Notre Dame would tell the Big Ten to find a spot for them (and they would).  I think that ND and then non-BCS schools would have a strong anti-trust action if they find themselves in that position, however.

Pittsburgh

A member of the AAU, a natural in-state rival for Penn State, geographically appropriate, decent academics, historical power. When the Big Ten looks east, Pitt should be the first target.

Rutgers

Rutgers delivers the New York market, and is a member of the AAu, but their lack of power in football, historic or not, is an obstacle. If Notre Dame joins, Rutgers is definitely the first scratch, even if Notre Dame joins 3 years from now. Just not a great fit athletically, and this would almost entirely be a market based decision.

Kansas/Kansas State/Iowa State

One idea I haven't heard floated out there is to pick up the rest of the pieces from the Big XII. Iowa State and Kansas are AAU members, and I'm sure Kansas State could garner an invitation. This of course leaves Baylor out in the cold, but nobody really wants them anyway. Iowa State provides an in-state rival for Iowa, and Kansas/K-State are pretty much a package deal. Would add some serious basketball cache with Kansas, too.

Syracuse University

Okay, so I know Syracuse has fallen on rough times. But I seriously can't figure out why they aren't getting more talk about joining the Big Ten. If not for the New York market, I'd easily take them ahead of Rutgers. Historical power, AAU member. Just feels right. In fact, with the exception of recent on-the-field prowess in football, I'd put Pitt and Syracuse 1A and 1B out of the Big East teams.

University of Maryland

I'm not sure where this came from, but I've seen it pop up in a few places. I don't think this will happen. Not a geographic fit, not great football history, and just doesn't feel like a good fit. Maryland should stick with the ACC.

Prediction: The Big Ten adds Nebraska, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse. Possibility that Kansas could wedge in here somewhere (more likely destination for Kansas, IMO, is the SEC - we'll get to that).

Pac-10 Conference Possibilities


The Pac-10 has become the biggest mover and shaker here.

Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Colorado

Multiple media outlets are reporting that the Pac-10 is adding Colorado. Which means that there is substance to the offer to the 6 Big XII schools. Ultimately, I think that this merger is going to happen, and the Pac-10 becomes the Pac-16.

Colorado and Utah

If, somehow, the Big XII finds a way to hold itself together, the Pac-10 still needs one more team to make it to 12. In my opinion, the perfect fit here is Utah. They've made a strong case over the last decade, and are a good geographic fit. Other possibilities include BYU (religion issue), Boise State (blue field?), and Texas Christian (geographic anomaly).

SEC Conference Possibilities


Now things get interesting. If both the Pac-10 and Big Ten expand to 16 teams, you know that will force the SEC to respond.

The SEC has found themselves in a reactionary position here, but there will be plenty of opportunities for them to expand during this as well.  Here are some of the schools I think they should consider trying to add during this process (roughly in order of consideration that should be given:

Kansas / Kansas State
I think these schools should be considered as a package deal for entry into the SEC, due to their geography - they don't fit that well into the SEC, and having an in-state rival for Kansas would help with that transition.  This also creates a great instant basketball rivalry between Kansas and Kentucky, who has long been the only real show in town on the hardwood.

West Virginia
Adds power in both football and basketball, and (as a bunch of rednecks) just has always felt like an SEC school to me.

Florida State
Natural fit with the other Florida schools, and certainly adds plenty of firepower and cache on the football field, where the SEC's bread has always been buttered.

Georgia Tech
Similar to Florida State, adds an in-state rival for Georgia and plenty of football power.

Clemson
In-state rival for South Carolina.  Also, I remember growing up thinking that they were in the SEC, and being surprised when I found out they were in the ACC.  They just always sounded like an SEC school.

Miami (FL)
Certainly fits with the SEC's bad-boy image, and geographically sound in Florida, natural in-state rival.

Texas A&M
I know they've already flirted with the SEC, but it seems unlikely that that Texas bloc will get broken up. It is possible that A&M says 'Thanks, but no thanks.' to the Pac-10 to get out from under Texas' shadow, and opening up a spot for Baylor in the Pac-16.

ACC / Big East Conference Possibilities


Twelve teams didn't lead to football conference dominance for the ACC after raiding the Big East, and with the other BCS conferences blowing up or expanding, they'll be forced to follow suit. As the less attractive suitor when compared to the SEC, they'll have to be aggressive just to keep their own members, much less attract other quality schools.

Essentially, I see this playing out with the ACC taking the remains of the football schools in the Big East.

The big coup possibility here is having Notre Dame read the writing on the wall regarding conference affiliation, and joining the ACC instead of the Big Ten. That could be a huge move for the Irish, who could potentially bring Pitt with them and and their pickings of the Big East. Even Penn State could possibly be poached from the Big Ten in such a scenario.

Here's an intriguing ACC possibility, that restores some great rivalries, and creates a great all-around football, basketball and academic conference:

Notre Dame
Penn State
Pitt
Florida State
Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Georgia Tech
Clemson
Boston College
North Carolina
Duke
Kansas
Virginia
Wake Forest
Maryland

With the weight that Notre Dame has to throw around, they could even pull something together holding together the Big East and ACC as viable football and basketball conferences. With Kansas potentially twisting in the wind, and Notre Dame's history with schools like Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Pitt and Penn State, we could see the Big East/ACC realign into one powerful football conference, and a weaker football conference that would be a basketball super-conference. With an agreement for Notre Dame to tie into the football conference structure as an independent (maintaining their ties with USC, Navy, etc.), and basketball with the basketball conference.

Consider this:

ACC
Penn State
Pitt
Florida State
Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Clemson
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Maryland
Syracuse
South Florida
Notre Dame**

Big East
North Carolina
Duke
Kansas
Connecticut
Wake Forest
Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
DePaul*
Georgetown*
Marquette*
Providence*
St. John's*
Seton Hall*
Villanova*
Notre Dame*

* Basketball/Olympic sports only
** Football preferred independent scheduling status only

This is, of course, an extreme situation. But I think it illustrates exactly how complicated this all could get should things start to fall apart.

Shake It Down! Other conference impacts

The Mountain West, WAC, independents, and other Div. I-A schools are also watching these events play out. If there are any BCS schools left out in the cold, the non-BCS conferences will be like piranha trying to latch onto them. There may be major shifts between these conferences as well. Boise State was flirting with the Mountain West until they put an indefinite hold on the engagement pending the Big XII / Pac-10 shakeup. And who could blame them? The Big XII could hold together and snag Utah, TCU, BYU, etc. Maybe they can add a Kansas and Kansas instead, elevating the conference closer to BCS status.

All in all, the dominoes here could be tremendous. Hopefully, I'll be able to track developments as the come while I'm out in Colorado working and attending my brother's wedding. Thanks for reading!

Yes, I'm still bitter...

Irish Blogger Gathering: Post-Spring

1) Given the stat-lines of Brian Kelly’s first Blue and Gold Sprint Spring Game, it seems obvious to me that the media will be shark-feeding from now until the first game of the 2010 season over our new-found “quarterback controversy.” I mean, didjya see MONTANA SON of MONTANA throw those TD PASSES!? HE LOOKED JUST LIKE MONTANA! So let’s all do the responsible thing as “Notre Dame Blogs: Protectors of the Realm” and come to full agreeance about this so-called controversy and put it to rest right now: Nate Montana should be the starter, right?

Of course not. I don't care how he looked in the spring game. The defenses weren't blitzing, and he couldn't get hit. Crist is a more athletic quarterback, and a better overall fit for the system we run. I was very encouraged by what we saw out of Nate - I'm not nearly as worried about our backups as I was coming in to the game. That said, however, Crist is head and shoulders above any of our other quarterbacks, and we'll miss him desperately if he gets injured this year.

2) One of the over-arching themes of the 2010 Spring session of Notre Dame football was that Brian Kelly has been spending a lot of time trying to change the overall attitude of the Notre Dame team. To quote Kelly, “What I want them talking about is, ‘It’s me that gets that first national championship,’ not ‘I want to be the No. 1 draft pick.’ That’s what we’re reshaping.” Do you think that unexpectedly long wait-time this weekend for Golden Tate and Jimmy Clausen to receive that magical phone call from some NFL team will go noticed by any of the Irish footballers who, until this weekend, weren’t getting the message from Kelly? Was there anything this spring that you noticed that made you think that most of the team was already on board the Good Ship Greater Good and that the transformation in that regard was complete?

Actually, I was disappointed in the effort level I saw from the team on Saturday.  I know it's just the Spring game (and to be fair, due to work I missed the 1st quarter).  However, I felt like the players were sort of going through the motions out there.  I wanted to see these kids playing with some fire and passion, and what I saw was a group of kids that still don't know their assignments very well, and are spending too much time thinking and not enough playing.

That said, I think that the team is going to buy in.  The leadership on the team will bring everyone else along.  I think that there are a few players who are still Weis' guys, and haven't yet gone all in for Coach Kelly.  That said, the most impressive thing that Kelly has pulled off here is that there are no defections - nobody has left the team.  Yes, Clausen and Tate left for the draft, but that happened prior to Kelly getting hired.

The fact that nobody has decided to transfer is what tells me the most about this team.  To a man, they have bought into more than just Weis or Kelly.  They've bought in to Notre Dame.  They came here, the vast majority of them highly touted talents out of high school, with an agenda.  To bring Notre Dame back to where it ought to be.  Sure, some of them had NFL dreams in their eyes, but if that's all they cared about, they could have gone to USC or Oklahoma or Florida.  Ultimately, they all chose Notre Dame because they buy the mystique and the legend.

And that, more than anything, gives me hope for this group of kids and this coaching staff.

3) A fair number of players made a pretty good splash in Spring Ball and in the Blue & Gold Game. Name one you didn’t notice belly flopping into the big pool of opportunity and explain why that disappoints you. Or, if you really want to be creative, explain why you’re glad that particular player didn’t win any belly flop competitions.

Michael Floyd.  I just didn't see the level of effort out there that you would want from the most talented guy on the field.  Most players make their biggest leap forward in between their sophomore and junior seasons.  Floyd has the athletic ability to be the greatest receiver in Notre Dame history before his career here is done (if he stays for his senior year).  However, he's going to have to step up his game and start leading this team.

On the flip side of that coin, Manti Te'o is doing exactly that.  Maybe he should give Floyd some pointers.

4) Pick one quotation from Spring Ball sourced by an Irish coach and parse the living hell out of it.

"We stink."

This quote came just a few practices into the Spring, and it is the kind of quote you don't often see from a head football coach during spring practice.  They usually talk about progress and development.  But, Coach Kelly sent a clear message not only to his team, but the public at large, that things have got to change.

Remember in the Spring and Summer of 2007, when Coach Weis refused to use the term "rebuilding"?  How he talked about everything but the glaring deficiencies left in the upper classes from Willingham's inability to recruit?

Not this guy.  He knows what is at stake, and he is not going to mince words.  He also said that Manti Te'o wasn't very good and Michael Floyd has a lot of work to do.  And those guys are potential All-Americans.

He is raising the bar for everyone in the program, and trying to effectuate a cultural shift.  For too long, this team has been slowly moving away from the Notre Dame mentality to a more self-serving mentality that cares more about draft stock than the on-the-field results.

Like or dislike Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate, I think that them both leaving early was a sign of this change.  Sure, they had great seasons, and they were facing a coaching change and uncertainty with the NFL's salary cap situation.  And I'm not going to sit here and say that it was a bad idea for either of them to come out early - post draft, hindsight is 20/20 and that's not fair.  That said, they were more concerned about their own future than committing to the future of the team.

Spread option or not, don't you think the transition to the new coach would have been greatly eased by the presence of a veteran All-American quarterback and a returning Biletnikoff award winner?  I can't say that I would turn down that kind of money to stay in school, but I do know that that if they were thinking more about the team than themselves, we would have arguably the most talented returning offense in the country, new scheme or not.

And that is the cultural shift that Kelly is trying to achieve here.  Team isn't the first thing on your mind - it's the only thing.  From the head coach, all the way down the line to the support staff.  Time will tell if this mentality takes hold, but if it does, watch out.

5) Select one stat from the 2009 season that either troubled you greatly or made you brag to all your coworkers who cheered for teams with sucky comparable stats, and explain why that particular stat will be vastly improved or ruined in 2010 based on what you’ve seen in the spring.

4.75 yards per carry.

Yep, that's what our defense gave up to our opponents on the ground last season.  We were soft against the run, ranking 89th in the country in rush defense.  Gone are the days of the Snow Bowl, where the other team had to fight for every inch they gained against us.  And God forbid they try to get that last inch between the ball and the end zone.

I'm not sure whether that stat will improve next year by a significant amount based upon what I've seen - th Spring game was a very vanilla defense against a deep and talented stable of running backs.

However, Coach Elston's statements about getting into the backfield give me some hope that we will be able to disrupt opposing team's offenses.  It certainly helps that we have a coherent defensive identity for once, rather than the hodgepodge we've had the last few years.

6) Bonus: Stick figures, collage, stolen work, hotlinked photo, professionally edited photoshopping, whatever… give us a visual that best represents everything you’ve seen from spring college football, Irish and/or otherwise, in 2010.

For those of you not familiar with #29 in this photo, that would be one Patrick Coughlin, senior walk-on tailback, who came in during the second half and showed me one of the few bright spots in an otherwise somewhat forgettable spring game.  He'll probably never make the field this year, except perhaps a brief appearance in mop-up duty if we can find a way to blow someone out.

However, he showed the grit and determination that I know Coach Kelly is looking for in his players.   His effort on Saturday was one of his few chances to shine in Notre Dame Stadium, and he took full advantage, rushing for 80 yards on 11 carries.  And that's Steve Filer, former 5-star recruit and legit challenger for a starting role on our linebacking corps trying (unsuccessfully) to bring him down.

I thought about putting up a picture of Cierre Wood, the oft-fogotten 5-star all-everything #1 overall running back recruit that redshirted his freshman season last year, who ran for 110 yards on 10 carries, for a whopping 11.0 ypc and 2 touchdowns.

What they both show, and what really struck me about this offseason so far is the opportunities presented.  These players each have a clean slate to work from, and unlike the last few coaching transitions, the veterans are being pushed by players with at least as much athletic ability.  So whoever we put out on the field, they will have had to earn it.

Armando Allen, Kyle Rudolph, Michael Floyd, Brian Smith, Chris Stewart and even Dayne Crist are clearly the leaders at their respective positions.  But there's no room for them to coast or sit on their laurels.  AA has 4 running backs that could legitimately start if he doesn't pull his weight.  Michael Floyd may have some competition from Tai-ler Jones.  Even Nate Montana had a better stat line than Dayne Crist in the Blue-Gold game.

So, as spring turns into summer, and summer cools into fall, don't be surprised if the depth chart on opening day has some new faces on it.  If they can take advantage of their opportunities.