As my new job has limited the amount of time I have to commit to blogging, I liked the way my Michigan keys to victory post went last week, so I'm going to make it a weekly installment here, replacing my perviously verbose and far-reaching posts of my student days.
So, here are my three keys to victory over the hated Spartans tomorrow, where I will be basking in the glory of yet another Irish win tomorrow early evening (Sec. 120, Row 17 Seat 13).
Shut down the run.
More so than probably any game this season, if I had to pick just one key to victory, this is it.
Michigan State this year, unlike years past, is a one-trick pony.
There is no Plaxico Burress, Devin Thomas, or Charles Rogers in the wide receiving corps. Hoyer is no Drew Stanton. And even the mighty Ringer no longer has Jehuu Caulcrick to soften up the defense.
Shut down Ringer, and down go the Spartans.
Establish the running game.
Although we are more than capable of beating the Spartans with an underperforming running game, beating them at their own game will do several things for us. (1) It will open up passing lanes for Clausen, creating the opportunity for the big plays off of play-action. (2) It will wear down the Spartan defense. (3)It will keep Ringer off of the field. (4) It will take the hostile crowd out of the game by slowing everything down.
Win the field position battle.
Arguably our best unit on the team is our special teams coverage units, and going against a running team like the Spartans, field position becomes critical. I don't expect the Spartans to cough up the ball like their Ann Arbor cousin/wife did last week, but if Bruton and Anello can work their magic and limit returns, and we can execute good enough on offense to win the field position battle, we will win this game on the backs of the explosive potential of our offense.
So there you have it, my three keys to victory. When I sober up on Monday, I'll be back to show you all how amazingly prescient and wise I am.
Until then, I'll be incommunicado, as I have to go into East Lansing, imbibe heavily, and help kick Spartie's pasty white little ass.
Friday, September 19, 2008
The Night before Battle
All was quiet along the front lines. The troops moved about with a quiet confidence and sense of purpose. Just below them, in the valley of Lansing, lay their prey - the Spartans. Known in lore for their toughness in battle, their greatest moment is a moment of defeat at the hands of a greater opponent.
The Irish hordes waiting to descend upon the morrow are a young and rowdy lot, full of youth and vigor. Some pace nervously, while others ready their arms for tomorrow's fight. While General Weis holes up in his tent drafting battle plans with his advisors, the field general Clausen wanders through the troops, an air of confidence about him that belies his relative youth.
In fact, there are precious few veterans among the troops marching into battle. There's grizzled old Crum, staunch defender and hard hitting warrior. There's Bruton, the quick and agile ranger that can outflank any opponent. Crazy old codger Kuntz, who scares his teammates as much as the opponent, and stalwart Turkovich, man beast who stands like a rock against all comers.
All of the members of this ragtag know the challenge set before them. The mighty Ringer, he of the stomping of mighty Florida Atlantic and Eastern Michigan and the wily Hoyer, he of the fair to middling pass attack, will be difficult foes.
But they are ready for the task at hand.
They know this battleground, and have emerged victorious before. They have vanquished this enemy before on their home turf. They are not the same army of old, slow and plodding, with weak defenses and archaic offensive firepower.
Equipped with the latest weapons of battle, a faster force with quick strike capabilities prepares to unleash a campaign of shock and awe on the unsuspecting Spartans in the valey down below.
Sleep well tonight, Sparta, and enjoy your dinner and wine.
For tomorrow you dine in hell.
The Irish hordes waiting to descend upon the morrow are a young and rowdy lot, full of youth and vigor. Some pace nervously, while others ready their arms for tomorrow's fight. While General Weis holes up in his tent drafting battle plans with his advisors, the field general Clausen wanders through the troops, an air of confidence about him that belies his relative youth.
In fact, there are precious few veterans among the troops marching into battle. There's grizzled old Crum, staunch defender and hard hitting warrior. There's Bruton, the quick and agile ranger that can outflank any opponent. Crazy old codger Kuntz, who scares his teammates as much as the opponent, and stalwart Turkovich, man beast who stands like a rock against all comers.
All of the members of this ragtag know the challenge set before them. The mighty Ringer, he of the stomping of mighty Florida Atlantic and Eastern Michigan and the wily Hoyer, he of the fair to middling pass attack, will be difficult foes.
But they are ready for the task at hand.
They know this battleground, and have emerged victorious before. They have vanquished this enemy before on their home turf. They are not the same army of old, slow and plodding, with weak defenses and archaic offensive firepower.
Equipped with the latest weapons of battle, a faster force with quick strike capabilities prepares to unleash a campaign of shock and awe on the unsuspecting Spartans in the valey down below.
Sleep well tonight, Sparta, and enjoy your dinner and wine.
For tomorrow you dine in hell.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Michigan Sucks. Postgame edition.
In a rare moment of prescience, I hit the nail squarely on the head in my preview post:
Okay, so I was 100% right about winning the turnover battle, as Michigan's butterfingers was definitely the biggest difference in the final score of the game, with Notre Dame scoring a whopping 28 points off of turnovers (counting the turnover on downs). I was wrong about Michigan not giving up the big play, but our backs did do a better job of holding on to the ball, not losing any fumbles in a sloppy, slippery mess.
The game turned into a good old-fashioned butt kickin pretty quick, but the kicking game was certainly crucial to our success. That tandem of Bruton and Anello made kick returns a nightmare for Michigan, as they couldn't seem to field a kick cleanly, and when they did, one of our gunners was blasting it out of their hands. We didn't need our field goal kicker, as we were extremely efficient at converting red zone appearances into touchdowns.
We did have a mistake on a fake punt, but other than that, I think we could call ourselves sound in the kicking game on Saturday.
I broke it down, and looked at every first down Michigan had in the game. Then I broke them apart into two groups: when Michigan gained a first down (or scored a TD), and when Michigan was held on downs (punt, turnover, and field goal attempts).
The average yards on first down when Michigan converted? 5.7
The average yards on first down when they didn't? 1.27
If you average in the interception return by Gray as -41 yards instead of 0, that average drops to -2.45 yards per play.
Moral: sucess on first down leads to a better success rate at killing drives.
Quirk: We were 7 for 13 stopping Michigan from converting when we held them to less than one yard gained on first down. We were only 4 for 12 when they gained more than one yard on first down.
Win the turnover battle
I'd be willing to wager a substantial amount of money that the team that wins the turnover battle tomorrow will win the game. In a defensive struggle, it's often the interception or fumble recovery that makes the difference between winning and losing. I want to see our running backs do a better job of holding on to the ball, and Jimmy be patient in the offense, as Michigan will not give him a lot of opportunities for big plays.
Okay, so I was 100% right about winning the turnover battle, as Michigan's butterfingers was definitely the biggest difference in the final score of the game, with Notre Dame scoring a whopping 28 points off of turnovers (counting the turnover on downs). I was wrong about Michigan not giving up the big play, but our backs did do a better job of holding on to the ball, not losing any fumbles in a sloppy, slippery mess.
Be sound in the kicking game
This game could very well be decided by a field goal. I'm concerned about our long snappers, as we face a tough choice between a snapper who is inconsistent and one that is consistent but undersized. I'm gaining more confidence in our kickers, but they need a clean snap and hold to have a shot at success.
Our coverage units have been very good, and I think that Anello and Bruton may be the best gunner tandem in the country.
We've been very good at blocking kicks the last few years, but that was largely due to the presence of Trevor Laws inside. I'd like to see somebody step up to the plate and get some pressure on the kicker in crucial situations.
The game turned into a good old-fashioned butt kickin pretty quick, but the kicking game was certainly crucial to our success. That tandem of Bruton and Anello made kick returns a nightmare for Michigan, as they couldn't seem to field a kick cleanly, and when they did, one of our gunners was blasting it out of their hands. We didn't need our field goal kicker, as we were extremely efficient at converting red zone appearances into touchdowns.
We did have a mistake on a fake punt, but other than that, I think we could call ourselves sound in the kicking game on Saturday.
Play shutdown defense on first down.
Too many times last week we let the Aztecs gain substantial yardage on first down, setting up long drives. I'd like to see a more aggressive stance on first down, giving up the occasional longer play in favor of shutting down the Michigan offense more often than not. With the system that Michigan plays in, 2nd and 3rd and long situations really limit their options on offense.
Also, their lack of a mobile QB should let us really pin our ears back and go after the QB when we force them into passing situations.
We CANNOT let them establish a ground game.
I broke it down, and looked at every first down Michigan had in the game. Then I broke them apart into two groups: when Michigan gained a first down (or scored a TD), and when Michigan was held on downs (punt, turnover, and field goal attempts).
The average yards on first down when Michigan converted? 5.7
The average yards on first down when they didn't? 1.27
If you average in the interception return by Gray as -41 yards instead of 0, that average drops to -2.45 yards per play.
Moral: sucess on first down leads to a better success rate at killing drives.
Quirk: We were 7 for 13 stopping Michigan from converting when we held them to less than one yard gained on first down. We were only 4 for 12 when they gained more than one yard on first down.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Michigan sucks.
and Ann Arbor is a whore.
It's Michigan week, and although I was disappointed at first with our performance against San Diego State, I rewatched the game and am actually somewhat encouraged by much of what I saw.
We made far too many mistakes against San Diego State, and that is what kept the game from being a blowout. A fumble inside the 5 (which I still contend was a bad call), an interception in the end zone, two muffed field goals, drive extending penalties. If not for shooting ourselves repeatedly in the foot, we could have won that game decisively.
Which brings us to this week.
We cannot afford to make those same mistakes against Michigan. Their defense is excellent, and it will be extremely difficult to move the ball, especially on the ground.
However, Michigan will likely struggle to move the ball as well, with their patchwork offense against our aggressive attacking defense.
I expect a low scoring affair which will be decided by who makes the fewest mistakes. My confidence level going into this game is far below what it was entering the season, but I still believe we are capable of beating the Skunkbears if we can limit our mental errors. This team is still young, but they have a lot of game experience, and that should begin to translate into a better football IQ eventually. Whether or not that will manifest this week remains to be seen.
Here are my keys to victory tomorrow:
Win the turnover battle
I'd be willing to wager a substantial amount of money that the team that wins the turnover battle tomorrow will win the game. In a defensive struggle, it's often the interception or fumble recovery that makes the difference between winning and losing. I want to see our running backs do a better job of holding on to the ball, and Jimmy be patient in the offense, as Michigan will not give him a lot of opportunities for big plays.
Be sound in the kicking game
This game could very well be decided by a field goal. I'm concerned about our long snappers, as we face a tough choice between a snapper who is inconsistent and one that is consistent but undersized. I'm gaining more confidence in our kickers, but they need a clean snap and hold to have a shot at success.
Our coverage units have been very good, and I think that Anello and Bruton may be the best gunner tandem in the country.
We've been very good at blocking kicks the last few years, but that was largely due to the presence of Trevor Laws inside. I'd like to see somebody step up to the plate and get some pressure on the kicker in crucial situations.
Play shutdown defense on first down.
Too many times last week we let the Aztecs gain substantial yardage on first down, setting up long drives. I'd like to see a more aggressive stance on first down, giving up the occasional longer play in favor of shutting down the Michigan offense more often than not. With the system that Michigan plays in, 2nd and 3rd and long situations really limit their options on offense.
Also, their lack of a mobile QB should let us really pin our ears back and go after the QB when we force them into passing situations.
We CANNOT let them establish a ground game.
If we can accomplish those three things, I think that we have an excellent chance of beating Michigan and giving this team some credibility going into Lansing next week (I'll be at next week's game!)
Prediction:
Notre Dame 17
Michigan 14
It's Michigan week, and although I was disappointed at first with our performance against San Diego State, I rewatched the game and am actually somewhat encouraged by much of what I saw.
We made far too many mistakes against San Diego State, and that is what kept the game from being a blowout. A fumble inside the 5 (which I still contend was a bad call), an interception in the end zone, two muffed field goals, drive extending penalties. If not for shooting ourselves repeatedly in the foot, we could have won that game decisively.
Which brings us to this week.
We cannot afford to make those same mistakes against Michigan. Their defense is excellent, and it will be extremely difficult to move the ball, especially on the ground.
However, Michigan will likely struggle to move the ball as well, with their patchwork offense against our aggressive attacking defense.
I expect a low scoring affair which will be decided by who makes the fewest mistakes. My confidence level going into this game is far below what it was entering the season, but I still believe we are capable of beating the Skunkbears if we can limit our mental errors. This team is still young, but they have a lot of game experience, and that should begin to translate into a better football IQ eventually. Whether or not that will manifest this week remains to be seen.
Here are my keys to victory tomorrow:
Win the turnover battle
I'd be willing to wager a substantial amount of money that the team that wins the turnover battle tomorrow will win the game. In a defensive struggle, it's often the interception or fumble recovery that makes the difference between winning and losing. I want to see our running backs do a better job of holding on to the ball, and Jimmy be patient in the offense, as Michigan will not give him a lot of opportunities for big plays.
Be sound in the kicking game
This game could very well be decided by a field goal. I'm concerned about our long snappers, as we face a tough choice between a snapper who is inconsistent and one that is consistent but undersized. I'm gaining more confidence in our kickers, but they need a clean snap and hold to have a shot at success.
Our coverage units have been very good, and I think that Anello and Bruton may be the best gunner tandem in the country.
We've been very good at blocking kicks the last few years, but that was largely due to the presence of Trevor Laws inside. I'd like to see somebody step up to the plate and get some pressure on the kicker in crucial situations.
Play shutdown defense on first down.
Too many times last week we let the Aztecs gain substantial yardage on first down, setting up long drives. I'd like to see a more aggressive stance on first down, giving up the occasional longer play in favor of shutting down the Michigan offense more often than not. With the system that Michigan plays in, 2nd and 3rd and long situations really limit their options on offense.
Also, their lack of a mobile QB should let us really pin our ears back and go after the QB when we force them into passing situations.
We CANNOT let them establish a ground game.
If we can accomplish those three things, I think that we have an excellent chance of beating Michigan and giving this team some credibility going into Lansing next week (I'll be at next week's game!)
Prediction:
Notre Dame 17
Michigan 14
Monday, September 08, 2008
PANIC BUTTON
After watching the Irish eke out a win against the San Diego State Aztecs this week, my hand is poised over the giant red panic button in my brain going into this week's matchup with Michigan.
there are certain things I wanted to see out of this team, and some of them I did, others I didn't. And from a purely on-paper standpoint, this team looks somewhat improved from last year.
That said, we were dangerously close to going down two scores late in the game to San Diego frickin' State University.
I'm not pushing the button quite yet, but if there isn't marked improvement between last week and this week, well... let's just say that my support for Coach Weis hangs in the balance.
I did see much improved pass protection, albeit it was against a severely depleted defensive line. And I did NOT see the "pound it" attitude that Coach Weis promised in the offseason. Which should have been on proud display against the aforementioned depleted Aztecs front four.
I did see more accurate passing, and more deep passes than last year's dink-and-dunk offense. But I did not see anyone truly emerge as a "breakaway" type player. Tate showed some more promise, as did true frosh Floyd. I'm about to give up on Armando Allen as a breakaway threat - he just doesn't have the vision.
I did see an aggressive, attacking defense. I did NOT see the shutdown secondary I remembered from last year.
All told, I'm giving this team a C- for their performance against SDSU. Passing (we did get a W, something I no longer take for granted after last year), but just barely.
And so this week brings us to a turning point for the program.
Michigan sucks. They may have their worst team in the past generation this year. No QB, no real running threats.
But they do have a talneted defense.
If we can move the ball and put up some points en route to a victory, I'll chalk up SDSU to first game jitters and shaking off the rust from last year.
If we can't beat the Skunkbears in our own backyard, with them fielding their worst team in decades, I'm ready to throw in the towel on Coach Weis.
Pressure's on. It's put up or shut up time.
there are certain things I wanted to see out of this team, and some of them I did, others I didn't. And from a purely on-paper standpoint, this team looks somewhat improved from last year.
That said, we were dangerously close to going down two scores late in the game to San Diego frickin' State University.
I'm not pushing the button quite yet, but if there isn't marked improvement between last week and this week, well... let's just say that my support for Coach Weis hangs in the balance.
I did see much improved pass protection, albeit it was against a severely depleted defensive line. And I did NOT see the "pound it" attitude that Coach Weis promised in the offseason. Which should have been on proud display against the aforementioned depleted Aztecs front four.
I did see more accurate passing, and more deep passes than last year's dink-and-dunk offense. But I did not see anyone truly emerge as a "breakaway" type player. Tate showed some more promise, as did true frosh Floyd. I'm about to give up on Armando Allen as a breakaway threat - he just doesn't have the vision.
I did see an aggressive, attacking defense. I did NOT see the shutdown secondary I remembered from last year.
All told, I'm giving this team a C- for their performance against SDSU. Passing (we did get a W, something I no longer take for granted after last year), but just barely.
And so this week brings us to a turning point for the program.
Michigan sucks. They may have their worst team in the past generation this year. No QB, no real running threats.
But they do have a talneted defense.
If we can move the ball and put up some points en route to a victory, I'll chalk up SDSU to first game jitters and shaking off the rust from last year.
If we can't beat the Skunkbears in our own backyard, with them fielding their worst team in decades, I'm ready to throw in the towel on Coach Weis.
Pressure's on. It's put up or shut up time.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
2008 Season Preview
The new job has gotten in the way of blogging my season preview the way I wanted to, position by position, so instead, I'm going to do a quick game-by-game prediction of the upcoming season today. I have the benefit of having seen some of the teams we'll play today, and that will certainly influence my predictions.
Unlike the birthday post, this is how I actually expect the season to play out.
vs. San Diego State University Aztecs
Prediction: 42-14 Irish
The Aztecs are really bad, and although we may struggle coming out of the gate, we should be ahead comfortably by halftime, and run away with the game in the second half.
Player of the game: Robert Hughes. Because of the caliber of opponent, and the Michigan game coming up next week, I don't expect Weis and Haywood to open up the passing game too much, unless the line struggles with opening holes for the running game. After last year's running game woes, establishing the run must be a #1 priority to rebuild the team's confidence.
vs. University of Michigan Wolverines
Prediction: 21-10 Irish
After watching Michigan struggle against the Utah Utes today, I don't think that the Skunkbears will be as big of a challenge as I thought they might be at the start of the year. They do get another warm up game against Miami (OH) next week, and should regain some confidence coming into our game. This is the game that I expect us to open up the passing game, as Michigan's front four are experienced and will be keying off of our rush-heavy performance against the Aztecs.
Player of the game: Jimmy Clausen. Opening up the playbook and letting our sophomore QB show that he is healthy this year compared to last will be the priority in the game plan this week. Getting off to a fast start will be key, and I expect us to show off our depth at receiver with the occasional 5 receiver set, and 4 receiver sets with big Robert Hughes in the backfield to keep the defense honest.
at Michigan State University Spartans
Prediction: 28-24 MSU
The Michigan State team I saw Saturday night looked capable of moving the ball, but also had it's weaknesses, particularly against the big play. Whether or not we win this game may depend upon whether or not our offense is capable of attacking the MSU secondary effectively. Although I think this game is a MSU win on paper (hence my prediction), we are playing in Lansing. Therefore, I will likely be wrong, as a win should be inevitable - we've had their number in Lansing as much as they've had ours in Notre Dame Stadium of late.
Player of the game: Golden Tate. Cal's offense repeatedly embarassed MSU's defense with big play after big play. Tate has the capability, if he is as developed as a a receiver as Weis claims, to be the go to guy in attacking Michigan State.
vs. Purdue University Boilermakers
Prediction: 35-21 Irish
Purdue will bring an unbalanced pass heavy offense to town, and be the first real test for our secondary. They will be looking to come out to a fast start like they did last year, and put enough distance between us that they can outlast us to the victory. I do expect them to have some success early, but not as much as last year. We'll start by pounding it on the ground, attempting to wear out what should be an inferior defense, opening up the pass game in the second half.
Player of the game: David Bruton. Purdue's offense this year should be a little unhinged, chucking it all over the field. I'm expecting a lot of Cover 1, with Bruton playing center field. The defensive pressure should be very high from our front 7, blitzing nearly every down, forcing Purdue to try some crazy stuff. Bruton will take advantage by getting multiple picks.
vs. Stanford University Cardinal
Prediction: 28-7 Irish
The win over Purdue should provide a little swagger for this team, and I think that the Stanford game will be methodical, and somewhat boring. The Irish will pound the ball some more, eating up yardage and clock. I'd look for a bunch of screens in this game, much like the Coach Weis offense circa 2005. Hopefully, by this point in the season, the true freshman will be more comfortable and our depth will rear it's head. In particular, look for Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph to flex their muscles with some big plays and consistent performance.
Player of the game: David Grimes. I think this will be the kind of game where Grimes shines. He won't be flashy, but I think when you get to the end of the game, you'll look at the stat sheet and find it hard to argue with him as the player of the fame.
at University of North Carolina Tarheels
Prediction: 34-33 UNC
My rose-colored glasses prediction for this game isn't actually that far from what I expect to see in this game. These are two very similar teams, that I think will have similar records at this point in the season. It should be a slugfest, and I think that it will likely be one of the most exciting finishes of the year, although the game itself might be pretty ugly (kinda like UCLA 2006). Unlike the UCLA game, though, I have a gut feeling that the Tarheels will find the last minute heroics on their home turf. I look at UNC as a team like the Mizzou Tigers and Illinois Fightin' Illini were last year - unexpected contenders in the BCS.
Player of the game: Hakeem Nicks, receiver for UNC.
at University of Washington Huskies
Prediction: 45-17 Irish
At this point in the season, Tyrone Willingham is going to be a lame duck coach, if he hasn't already been fired. Quarterback Jake Locker will give our front seven fits, but the Washington defense will be so disenfranchised by this point in the season, that we ought to be able to score at will. Also, with the close loss the week before, and playing against our former coach, we will not be lacking for motivation.
Player of the game: Jimmy Clausen. Clausen will start to show glimpses of his true potential in this game. There is a reason that Coach Weis is so high on this kid, and I think this is the game where things really start to click.
vs. University of Pittsburgh Panthers
Prediction: 24-21 Irish
Even after watching Pitt lose to Bowling Green today, this game gives me some pause. There is enough talent on this Pitt team to be dangerous, and their uncertain situation at coach creates some chaos. Also, every year there is a game that shouldn't be close that is - remember Stanford-USC last year? I'm predicting a win, but it will be closer than the experts think.
Player of the game: Maurice Crum, Jr. A strong defense is the difference, as Crum gets the better of LeSean McCoy in this game, which will be the difference between winning and losing.
at Boston College Eagles
Prediction: 45-3 Irish
Boston College should be strugling at this point of the season, and the Irish should not be lacking motivation against the team that has made their bones playing spoiler. After a scare against an inferior Pitt team, I expect probably the most complete game of the season from the Irish, who are starting more and more to look like a veteran team.
Player of the game: Armando Allen. Although Allen has spent most of his career at this point struggling to find open field, I think this could be a breakout game for him, with multiple big yardage plays to break the game open.
at United States Naval Academy Midshipmen
Prediction: 49-10 Irish
Order will be restored in this rivalry, as the Irish seek to avenge their first loss to the Middies since the 60s. The loss of Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech will make this an easy task, as Navy didn't look that impressive, even against Towson. I am hoping to see Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enheada back behind center when we play them, though. Mostly because it's fun to say.
Player of the game: Pat Kuntz. The Midshipmen's rushing attack will need to be shut down up front, and I think Kuntz wreaks havoc in the backfield this game.
vs. Syracuse University Orange
Prediction: 56-0 Irish
By far the worst team on the schedule, this will be a team without a coach and without direction at this point in the season. The Irish will be looking to roll up a lot of points early, then rest their first team and get some meaningful time for the backups.
Player of the game: Robert Hughes. After running up a decent lead, the Irish will ride Hughes to back-to-back clock eating scores, blowing the game open before sitting the entire first string.
at University of Southern California Trojans
Prediction: ???
I refuse to predict this game right now. My brain keeps telling me that we're not quite in the position to compete in this game like we did in 2005, but there's this nagging voice somewhere deep inside that tells me that it may be time...
Final Prediction: Either 9-3 or 10-2, with a very good (maybe BCS) bowl game.
Unlike the birthday post, this is how I actually expect the season to play out.
vs. San Diego State University Aztecs
Prediction: 42-14 Irish
The Aztecs are really bad, and although we may struggle coming out of the gate, we should be ahead comfortably by halftime, and run away with the game in the second half.
Player of the game: Robert Hughes. Because of the caliber of opponent, and the Michigan game coming up next week, I don't expect Weis and Haywood to open up the passing game too much, unless the line struggles with opening holes for the running game. After last year's running game woes, establishing the run must be a #1 priority to rebuild the team's confidence.
vs. University of Michigan Wolverines
Prediction: 21-10 Irish
After watching Michigan struggle against the Utah Utes today, I don't think that the Skunkbears will be as big of a challenge as I thought they might be at the start of the year. They do get another warm up game against Miami (OH) next week, and should regain some confidence coming into our game. This is the game that I expect us to open up the passing game, as Michigan's front four are experienced and will be keying off of our rush-heavy performance against the Aztecs.
Player of the game: Jimmy Clausen. Opening up the playbook and letting our sophomore QB show that he is healthy this year compared to last will be the priority in the game plan this week. Getting off to a fast start will be key, and I expect us to show off our depth at receiver with the occasional 5 receiver set, and 4 receiver sets with big Robert Hughes in the backfield to keep the defense honest.
at Michigan State University Spartans
Prediction: 28-24 MSU
The Michigan State team I saw Saturday night looked capable of moving the ball, but also had it's weaknesses, particularly against the big play. Whether or not we win this game may depend upon whether or not our offense is capable of attacking the MSU secondary effectively. Although I think this game is a MSU win on paper (hence my prediction), we are playing in Lansing. Therefore, I will likely be wrong, as a win should be inevitable - we've had their number in Lansing as much as they've had ours in Notre Dame Stadium of late.
Player of the game: Golden Tate. Cal's offense repeatedly embarassed MSU's defense with big play after big play. Tate has the capability, if he is as developed as a a receiver as Weis claims, to be the go to guy in attacking Michigan State.
vs. Purdue University Boilermakers
Prediction: 35-21 Irish
Purdue will bring an unbalanced pass heavy offense to town, and be the first real test for our secondary. They will be looking to come out to a fast start like they did last year, and put enough distance between us that they can outlast us to the victory. I do expect them to have some success early, but not as much as last year. We'll start by pounding it on the ground, attempting to wear out what should be an inferior defense, opening up the pass game in the second half.
Player of the game: David Bruton. Purdue's offense this year should be a little unhinged, chucking it all over the field. I'm expecting a lot of Cover 1, with Bruton playing center field. The defensive pressure should be very high from our front 7, blitzing nearly every down, forcing Purdue to try some crazy stuff. Bruton will take advantage by getting multiple picks.
vs. Stanford University Cardinal
Prediction: 28-7 Irish
The win over Purdue should provide a little swagger for this team, and I think that the Stanford game will be methodical, and somewhat boring. The Irish will pound the ball some more, eating up yardage and clock. I'd look for a bunch of screens in this game, much like the Coach Weis offense circa 2005. Hopefully, by this point in the season, the true freshman will be more comfortable and our depth will rear it's head. In particular, look for Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph to flex their muscles with some big plays and consistent performance.
Player of the game: David Grimes. I think this will be the kind of game where Grimes shines. He won't be flashy, but I think when you get to the end of the game, you'll look at the stat sheet and find it hard to argue with him as the player of the fame.
at University of North Carolina Tarheels
Prediction: 34-33 UNC
My rose-colored glasses prediction for this game isn't actually that far from what I expect to see in this game. These are two very similar teams, that I think will have similar records at this point in the season. It should be a slugfest, and I think that it will likely be one of the most exciting finishes of the year, although the game itself might be pretty ugly (kinda like UCLA 2006). Unlike the UCLA game, though, I have a gut feeling that the Tarheels will find the last minute heroics on their home turf. I look at UNC as a team like the Mizzou Tigers and Illinois Fightin' Illini were last year - unexpected contenders in the BCS.
Player of the game: Hakeem Nicks, receiver for UNC.
at University of Washington Huskies
Prediction: 45-17 Irish
At this point in the season, Tyrone Willingham is going to be a lame duck coach, if he hasn't already been fired. Quarterback Jake Locker will give our front seven fits, but the Washington defense will be so disenfranchised by this point in the season, that we ought to be able to score at will. Also, with the close loss the week before, and playing against our former coach, we will not be lacking for motivation.
Player of the game: Jimmy Clausen. Clausen will start to show glimpses of his true potential in this game. There is a reason that Coach Weis is so high on this kid, and I think this is the game where things really start to click.
vs. University of Pittsburgh Panthers
Prediction: 24-21 Irish
Even after watching Pitt lose to Bowling Green today, this game gives me some pause. There is enough talent on this Pitt team to be dangerous, and their uncertain situation at coach creates some chaos. Also, every year there is a game that shouldn't be close that is - remember Stanford-USC last year? I'm predicting a win, but it will be closer than the experts think.
Player of the game: Maurice Crum, Jr. A strong defense is the difference, as Crum gets the better of LeSean McCoy in this game, which will be the difference between winning and losing.
at Boston College Eagles
Prediction: 45-3 Irish
Boston College should be strugling at this point of the season, and the Irish should not be lacking motivation against the team that has made their bones playing spoiler. After a scare against an inferior Pitt team, I expect probably the most complete game of the season from the Irish, who are starting more and more to look like a veteran team.
Player of the game: Armando Allen. Although Allen has spent most of his career at this point struggling to find open field, I think this could be a breakout game for him, with multiple big yardage plays to break the game open.
at United States Naval Academy Midshipmen
Prediction: 49-10 Irish
Order will be restored in this rivalry, as the Irish seek to avenge their first loss to the Middies since the 60s. The loss of Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech will make this an easy task, as Navy didn't look that impressive, even against Towson. I am hoping to see Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enheada back behind center when we play them, though. Mostly because it's fun to say.
Player of the game: Pat Kuntz. The Midshipmen's rushing attack will need to be shut down up front, and I think Kuntz wreaks havoc in the backfield this game.
vs. Syracuse University Orange
Prediction: 56-0 Irish
By far the worst team on the schedule, this will be a team without a coach and without direction at this point in the season. The Irish will be looking to roll up a lot of points early, then rest their first team and get some meaningful time for the backups.
Player of the game: Robert Hughes. After running up a decent lead, the Irish will ride Hughes to back-to-back clock eating scores, blowing the game open before sitting the entire first string.
at University of Southern California Trojans
Prediction: ???
I refuse to predict this game right now. My brain keeps telling me that we're not quite in the position to compete in this game like we did in 2005, but there's this nagging voice somewhere deep inside that tells me that it may be time...
Final Prediction: Either 9-3 or 10-2, with a very good (maybe BCS) bowl game.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
2008 Season Preview: Birthday Edition
It's my birthday, and I was accidentally awakened far too early, so I have way too much time on my hands. Therefore, I thought I'd take the opportunity to post random thoughts about the upcoming football season.Because of my new job and my birthday (and a steadt stream of Diet Mountain Dew), I am overly optimistic this morning, so I thought I'd preview the upcoming season through my newfound rose colored glasses while drinking some heavily spiked Kool-Aid (how's that for mixing metaphors?).
2008 Season Preview - Birthday Edition
vs. San Diego State University
The San Diego State Aztecs are bad. Awful. They don't even belong on the same field as the Fightin' Irish.
Notre Dame comes out with an attitude, and kicks SDSU up and down the field. After scoring 5 touchdowns in the first quarter, Weis sent in the second string. After they scored another 2 TDs halfway through the second, Weis sent in all the freshman. On the first down, Crist launched a laser to Floyd, who (sprung by a superb block by Deion Walker), raced for a touchdown. After kneeling the next two possessions, the all-freshman defense got another score to close out the half up 63-0. Rather than coming out for the second half, the team gave their jerseys to the Knott Hall interhall team, who came out and drove 80 yards for another score. The rest of the half saw several interhall teams come onto the field, with mixed results. Dillon Hall scored on a long pass, and Morrissey got a fumble recovery for a TD. Keenan and Siegfried both threw INTs, and Zahm kept getting lost in between the huddle and the ball, resulting in several embarassing delay of game penalties.
SDSU did come up with a huge goal-line stand at the end of the game, when the girls from Farley were stopped just inches from the end zone as time expired.
Prediction: 84-0 Notre Dame
vs. University of Michigan
The Skunkbears and Dick-Rod roll into South Bend after convincing wins against powerhouses Utah and Miami (OH). They have creeped back into the top 10 again, and are heavily favored against the lowly Irish.
Notre Dame loses the toss, and Michigan gets the ball first. Due to a rash of injuries to their QB corps, Dick Rod decides to do without a quarterback, instead direct snapping to the running backs and receivers. At first, things go great for Michigan, and they go up 14-0 early as the Irish offense struggles to move the ball against the Michigan D.
Then Tenuta and Brown decide to put all 11 men in the box, and start calling all-out blitz every down, old school video game style. Mo Crum and Dave Bruton each return a fumble and a tipped pass for a touchdown, and Brandon Minor and Kevin Grady go down with injuries.
Michigan, despite trailing by two touchdowns at the half, comes up with a new strategy. Michigan starts punting the ball on first down, and the Michigan defense actually picks off a Clausen pass and returns it for a score, bringing the Wolverines within 7.
However, with only a couple of minutes remaining in the game, Dick Rod decides to try to run an offense, and calls his team to the sideline to quickly install the A-11 offense. On the very next play, a walk-on QB from Michigan just gets off a desperation pass before being trampled by the Notre Dame defense. (Doctors say he is in stable condition, but may never walk again).
Michigan bobbles the pass, but eventually one of the receivers comes up with the ball, and takes off for the endzone. David Bruton, who read the defense and dropped back to the goal line in deep zone coverage, faces 8 blockers leading the way for the Michigan receiver. He sheds 6 blocks, and leaps over the final two blockers to rip the ball from the receiver only feet from the end zone, before racing to the other endzone for the final score of the game.
Prediction: 35-21 Notre Dame
at Michigan State University
Despite their back-to-back wins, ESPN votes the Irish into their Bottom 10 this week, chastising Tenuta for blitzing poor Michigan so much the week before, and calling for a congressional inquiry into the blitz scheme, claiming that it creates a substantial and unjustifiable risk a death or serious bodily injury.
Michigan State, on the other hand, has moved up to the top 3, largely on the strength of their win over Cal-Berkeley and ridiculous dismantling of Florida Atlantic the week before.
Notre Dame comes out of the gate strong on offense, as Clausen appears to have found some swagger and confidence in his wide receivers. He efficiently moves the ball through the air, with short, controlled passes for the first three scores, then a 73-yard bomb to a wide open Parris.
Problem is, Michigan State is moving the ball as effectively as the Irish, pounding the ball against our green defensive line until Tenuta brings Bruton down into the box. Hoyer proves especially adept at making the Irish pay when they stack the box, throwing touchdown passes of 65, 37, and 43 yards. Also, MSU adds a rushing touchdown.
Bruton finally gets the better of Hoyer late in the half, returning an interception down to the 31 yard line with 2 seconds left on the clock.
Brandon Walker's kick puts the Irish up 3 at the half.
After the halftime adjustments, both defenses stiffen, and neither team can move the ball.
The only fireworks in the second half are when a crazed (and naked) John L. Smith parachutes into the stadium late in the fourth quarter. Upon landing, he plants a Notre Dame flag at the 50-yard line and then runs over to Dantonio, attempting to rip the headset off of his head. He is finally subdued and taken to a nearby hospital for observation.
Prediction: 31-28 Notre Dame
vs. Purdue University
Purdue has been an exciting team to watch coming in to this game, with Tiller's new all-trick-play offense. He spent the offseason finding every trick play ever run by a football team, and has even invented a few of his own.
As a result, there are a lot of big plays both ways for the Boilermakers.
The game against Oregon many are claiming was the most schizophrenic game they've ever seen, with Oregon changing jerseys in between every play.
The Boilers dropped the game against Oregon 74-71, and beat Northern Colorado 67-34 and Central Michigan 62-56.
Now Purdue's crazy offense rolls into South Bend, and the Irish blitz happy scheme has blown the hype for this game way out of proportion. Nobody knows what to expect, and campus is abuzz.
Fittingly, the game starts with an onside kick - called by Coach Weis. Purdue recovers, however, and immediately runs a triple reverse, which results in a loss of 37 yards.
They follow that with a statue of liberty play that loses another 10, and a fumblerooski that gives the Irish the ball at the Purdue 3. A quick Hughes touchdown on the next play, and Weis and Haywood decide that maybe they should stick to a basic gameplan.
On the subsequent possession, Purdue tries the A-11 offense, but the Irish were not fooled this time, blowing it up and forcing the Boilers to run a swinging gate punt.
The Irish settle into a grinding offensive game plan, slowing down the game and limiting Purdue's opportunity to run all over the field.
Purdue does get some big plays, scoring on a hook and ladder and again on a free kick return after giving up a safety. But the Irish play disciplined defense, getting away from Tenuta's blitzing, causing the linebackers coach to run around the press box headbutting people as Brown calls a conservative game.
Notre Dame scores on long drives in each quarter, three touchdowns and a field goal. The defense gets another touchdown on a blocked fake kick on 2nd down.
After the game, Tiller refuses to shake hands with Coach Weis, and grabs the giant drum and starts banging it incessantly during Notre Dame's alma mater.
Prediction: 33-14 Notre Dame
vs. Stanford University
After all of the craziness to start the season, nobody knows what to make of the Irish at this point in the season. ESPN.com has them in the Bottom 10 and in the Power 16, the Coaches have them unranked, and the AP ranks them 17th.
For the first time in the season, the Irish play something resembling a football game, rather than a circus of crazy.
Aldridge, Hughes, Allen, and Gray all score rushing touchdowns, and Clausen adds another pair of passes himself, one to Kamara and another to Grimes in a beautiful diving catch.
On defense, Bruton and Mo Crum lead a defensive effort that renders the Stanford attack completely impotent, holding them to only a pair of field goals.
Prediction: 42-6 Notre Dame
at North Carolina
Notre Dame is finally getting some respect at this point in the season, and they are ranked in the top 20 going into the game with Top 20 and undefeated North Carolina.
In fact, both teams are tied for a 16th ranking in both polls.
To this point, in fact, the teams have had identical seasons.
North Carolina, with their sophomore quarterback, beat the snot out of McNeese State by a score of 84-0.
They survived a strange game against Rutgers in which 5 Rutgers players were ejected for chop blocking, as they were confused by Schiano's constant chopping motions on the sidelines by a score of 35-21.
Then they survive another game against Virginia Tech, where Beamer does away with the offense and defense and runs nothing but special teams plays all game long, but North Carolina ground out a victory on the ground. Tarheels won 33-14
Their game against Miami was a tale of two halves, with both teams jumping out early, and the offenses stagnating in the second half. Jimmy Johnson parachuted into the game, then punched out Coach Davis before trying to wrangle the headphones from Randy Shannon during the fourth quarter. He and John L. Smith are reportedly both heavily medicated but showing signs of improvement at an undisclosed sanitarium. They won the game 31-28.
The game before this one was a methodical dismantling of Connecticut by a score of - you guessed it - 42-6.
The Tarheels and Irish met on the gridiron, and they battled it out in an epic game. The lead changed hands 5 times, and both teams had big plays on offense and defense. It was like a championship bout, with the teams trading blow for blow. Burkhart missed a field goal, bouncing it off of the upright, from 61 yards as time expired in regulation, sending the game into overtime.
Hours later, Greg Little fumbled on the 1 yard line during an attempted two point conversion, recovered by the Irish and ending the longest game ever.
Prediction: 96-94 Notre Dame (13 OT)
at Washington
There was much anticipation regarding this matchup between Weis and Willingham in each of their fourth seasons as the leader of their respective programs.
The first quarter got started under the leadership of Ed Donatell, the defensive coordinator, sparking whispers around the stadium that the winless Huskies had finally jettisoned the beleagured Ty Willingham.
However, part way through the game, Willingham pulled into the stadium in his golf cart, with his golf bag still in the back. After signing his scorecard, he took the clipboard and headset, and started glaring at his players, who had already fallen behind 14-0.
The Irish rolled easily over the Huskies, although they did have some trouble with the athletic Jake Locker, who threw for one touchdown and ran for two more. Problem is, they were all called back for penalties.
But the Irish offensive attack was on full speed during this game, spreading the ball to 20 different receivers and using 12 different players to run the ball. They had 7 different players score. Crist played the entire fourth quarter, throwing for a touchdown of his own - the second of his career.
Prediction: 49-0 Notre Dame
vs. Pittsburgh
Charlie Weis put on a clinic this week at Pitt. Aside from an early mistake by
First of all, as much as I obsess about football, even I had trouble keeping up with Weis' playcalling. He was calling plays in the first quarter that led to successful plays in the third quarter. He was about five steps ahead of Wanny, and if he hadn't pulled his first string, he would never have punted. An example of Weis' playcalling:
In the first two drives, Weis called two screens, and
Late in the first quarter, Weis, having seen Pitt's tendency to watch for screens to
Weis knew before the play started that this would happen, and this is the beauty of his system. He has so many plays in his playbook, nicknamed The Phonebook by his players, that he has a play for literally every defensive tendency. He sees a weakness, and he exploits it.
The best thing about the Irish offense is the number of weapons they have at their disposal. At wide receiver, they have
The key play of the game was ND's first score, in which ND ran a called screen to
The wonderful thing about Weis is that he has put in an offense where every single playmaker on the team is a threat to move the ball on every single play. These guys have the capability to put up 40 points on EVERY SINGLE TEAM THEY PLAY THIS YEAR.
Prediction: 42-21 Irish
at Boston College
There was a huge controversy this week that dominated talk radio. The argument was whether it was poor sportsmanship for Coach Weis to keep his first string in the entire game, and to go for two in the final play of the game, thus ensuring the Irish would have sole possession of the most lopsided game ever in college football history.
Prediction: 223-0 Notre Dame
vs. Navy
The Irish had an almost perfect game against the Midshipmen, who were clearly outclassed on the field.
After jumping out to a 28-0 lead by the end of the 1st quarter, Weis played his backups the rest of the way, which made for an exciting game, as the teams traded scores until the end.
There was one major loss for the Irish, as they lost Emeka Nwankwo, who was so inspired by the heart of the Navy team, that he left the team to sign up for a tour of duty. He is expected to return to the Irish after his time in the Navy.
Prediction: 42-24 Notre Dame
vs. Syracuse
Syracuse head coach Greg Robinson tried to get his football team off of the team bus, but the team revolted and threw him out of the bus and drove back to New York, fearful for their health and safety should they take the field with Robinson calling the shots.
Not to disappoint the "sellout" crowd, the Irish decided to take the field anyway, and honored their past coaches by having Holtz and Parsegian take the field opposite Coach Weis. They flipped a coin to see who picks first, and drafted two teams to play that afternoon.
After four quarters of play, the two sides could not get the better of each other, and they finished the game tied at 28. Not wanting to risk injury, the team decided to call it a draw.
Prediction: Forfeit
at Southern Cal
After an epic battle where two undefeated teams battled back and forth throughout the game, The Irish pulled ahead on a Jimmy Clausen run with less than 2 minutes remaining in regulation.
After giving up a 61-yard pass on 4th and 9, the defense stiffened and stopped the Trojans on their one inch line. With only one second remaining on the clock, the Trojans attempted a quarterback sneak. Marc Tyler pushed Sanchez into the end zone, and the SC student body rushed the field, celebrating their epic win over the Irish.
But after about 15 minutes of attempts at crowd control, it was finally determined that a penalty flag had been thrown on the final play.
Marc Tyler was flagged for Assisting the Runner.
Notre Dame wins, and moves on to the National Championship game.
Prediction: 31-28 Notre Dame
vs. the Ohio State University, 2009 BCS National Championship Game
The Irish roll into this game as the undisputed #1 team in the country, facing a 1-loss Ohio State team that lost a squeaker to Southern Cal earlier in the season.
They jump out to an early lead on some impressive long passes from Clausen to Kamara and Floyd. Grimes adds an impressive run on a wide receiver screen to put the team ahead 3 scores.
Then the Irish ground attack shifts into gear. With their top 5 backs rotating into the game, the Buckeyes have no answers to this attack, and their defense quickly wears down.
The Buckeye offense has some success passing late in the game, but Bruton makes some excellent plays in the end zone to hold the Buckeyes to field goals on 4 straight drives.
Prediction: 41-12 Notre Dame
I know we're still a year away from being title contenders, but it's my birthday - a guy can dream, can't he?
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