2006 Spring Opponent Preview - Michigan Wolverines

Top player: Mike Hart, RB
Make-or-break player: Steve Breaston, WR
Biggest offensive strength: Running Back
Biggest offensive weakness: Coaching
Biggest defensive strength: Linebackers
Biggest defensive weakness: Coaching
Spring Depth Chart

Michigan struggled through a 7-5 season last year in which they lost all five of their games by a touchdown or less. They return amazing amounts of depth on their defense, including most of the secondary that gave our offense fits last year. However, the defensive coordinator from last year is gone, and it will be interesting to see if the new defensive coordinator uses the same schemes that were in place last year or if he tinkers with a defense that wasn't broken to begin with.

Their offense should be better this year. Much like the Irish, they return all of their skill players save one receiver. They will be as loaded as ever on the offensive line, and the key to a successful season for the Wolverines will be newly crowned #1 receiver Steve Breaston taking some pressure off of the running game, and the uber-conservative coaching staff to loosen the reins on the offense. Luckily, the coaching staff hasn't changed, and the Wolverines should be as predictable as ever on offense.

Of all of the games on Notre Dame's schedule, this one has the most potential to turn into a loss for the Irish. A victory at their house last year, and two straight wins for the Irish, could translate into motivation for the Wolverines and some overconfidence for the Irish. Also, Notre Dame will be coming off of back-to-back battles against talented teams in Penn State and Georgia Tech. Michigan will have just cruised through creampuff games against Vanderbilt and Central Michigan. Their defense gave us fits last year, and their offense is full of juniors that struggled through a sophomore slump last year and should be much better this year. Oh, and the underdog in this matchup has had the edge going back to 1942. And the Irish will be the favorite.

However, as this game is being played at home, and the Irish should improve as much if not more than Michigan in year 2 of the Weis era, I expect the Irish to eke out another win, but this could be a nail-biter. The Notre Dame offense will likely test whoever steps into Michigan's second cornerback role, as whoever plays will be only a sophomore.

Schedule

Date	Opponent	Prediction
9/2	Vanderbilt	W
9/9	Central Michigan	W
9/16	at Notre Dame	L
9/23/td>	Wisconsin	W
9/30	at Minnesota	W
10/7	Michigan State	W
10/14	at Penn State	W
10/21	Iowa	W
10/28	Northwestern	W
11/4	Ball State	W
11/11	at Indiana	W
11/11	at Ohio State	L

Sports x 2 = (:49 + $25,000) = 1st rd. MLB draft pick

Irish safety Tommy Z showed his athleticism in a brief TKO of OSU-fan Robert Bell at Madison Square Garden this past weekend in his pro debut, which netted him $25,000. For the record, that is the equivalent of about $1.8 million per hour.

Irish WR Jeff Samardzija was drafted in the 5th round of the MLB draft last week by the Chicago Cubs, and will likely get 1st round money for signing, as the Cubs picked him with their 2nd overall pick (they had no picks in rounds 2-4).

It is amazing how different the entire aura surrounding the Notre Dame football team is between this summer and two summers ago (before my 1st year at law school).

This year, ND is being picked by many as having the best shot at a National Championship this year, as well as the leading candidates for the Heisman and Biletnikoff trophies. They also have legitimate shots at the Nagurski, Doak Walker, and Outland trophies.

Before the ink was dry on the first top 5 Irish recruiting class in over a decade, the Irish got a verbal commitment from the best QB to come out of California since John Elway in Westlakes Christian High School QB Jimmy Clausen. The momentum of this year's class has many predicting that the Irish will have the best class in the country this year.

The Irish have two of their current players not only go pro in their other sports, but despite awesome pressure to the contrary, they both have publicly commited to play for the Irish in football this year to pursue a national championship.

Where were we two years ago at this time?

Notre Dame had just suffered through one of the worst seasons in history, going 5-7, and losing games to Purdue, Boston College, and Michigan State. We got completely blown out of games against Michigan, USC, and Florida State, losing by a combined 120-14. Our final loss of the season was to a mediocre Syracuse team, when it appeared that the team had all but given up on the season.

That summer, the Irish were unranked. By everyone. There are always going to be a couple of disreputable preseason mags who will throw the irish into the bottom of the Top 25 to sell some copies, but nobody seriously gave the Irish much of a shot going into the season.

Our recruiting had been underwhelming, with the Irish having inked a class ranked around the mid-30s, with 0 5-star athletes and only a couple of 4-star athletes. We did luck out on a player that turned out to be much better than ranked in Darius Walker, but DW is the only player that really has been a star (Maurice Crum has done pretty good).

What difference does a coach make?

A big one. Really big. I mean we are talking huge.

2006 Spring Opponent Preview - Penn State Nittany Lions

Top player: Paul Posluzny, LB
Make-or-break player: Anthony Morelli, QB
Biggest offensive strength: Running Back
Biggest offensive weakness: Wide receiver
Biggest defensive strength: Linebackers
Biggest defensive weakness: Cornerback
Spring Depth Chart

The Penn State game has a special place in my heart (I'll post about it the week before the game), and I feel truly blessed to have the opportunity to see the Nittany Lions play in Notre Dame stadium this year. As part of our 5-game gauntlet to begin the season, the Nittany Lions are coming off a BCS season last year, and have the best linebacker in the nation in their defensive backfield. They have one of the softest Big Ten schedules a man could want, with the only major challenge being their Big Ten opener at Ohio State. They have an excellent shot at being a BCS contender this year simply due to their schedule.

The big question mark is quarterback Anthony Morelli, who will be attempting to replace the versatile senior leadership of Michael Robinson as a sophomore and a traditional passing QB. He won't be able to run the option like Robinson, which will place more pressure on the running backs and receivers.

The receivers are their biggest weakness on offense. While they have lots of depth (5 players with at least one touchdown), they don't have the elite receiver necessary to burn our defense. Only 1 returning receiver has the potential to breakout as such, Derrick Williams, but he only accounted for 1 receiving touchdown last year, being used more as a reverse threat on the option (he scored three rushing TDs).

Penn State lost some elite defensive players on the D-line and at cornerback, and they will be susceptible to the passing game early in the season, struggling to cover receivers or get effective QB pressure. However, Penn State might have the best linebacking corps in the nation, and they will be tough against the running game and short passing game. Our deep passing game will be the difference in a defensive battle, with the Irish pulling away in the 4th quarter, taking advantage of a tired linebacking corps that is doing too much to make up for their other defensive weaknesses.

Schedule

Date	Opponent	Prediction
9/2	Akron	W
9/9	at Notre Dame	L
9/16	Youngstown St.	W
9/23/td>	at Ohio State	L
9/30	Northwestern	W
10/7	at Minnesota	W
10/21	Illinois	W
10/28	at Purdue	W
11/4	at Wisconsin	W
11/11	Temple	W
11/18	Michigan State	W

A small (640x480) wallpaper I whipped up using a free photo editor. I'm going to try to make a nicer one later this summer using PhotoShop. Enjoy!

2006 Spring Opponent Preview -Georgia Tech Yellowjackets

Georgia Tech's top player: Calvin Johnson, WR
Make-or-break player: Reggie Ball, QB
Biggest offensive strength: Offensive line
Biggest offensive weakness: Depth at wide receiver
Biggest defensive strenght: Starting linebackers
Biggest defensive weakness: Defensive secondary
Spring Depth Chart

Georgia Tech is the prefect season opener for the Irish. A solid team that will help the overall strength of schedule, the Yellowjackets will prepare this team for the tough stretch of games that start the schedule, but their weaknesses in the defensive secondary should give Brady an excellent opportunity to kick off his Heisman campaign. Also, a solid offensive line and one of the nation's best receivers will sufficiently test our weaknesses - pass rush and defensive secondary. This should be a high-scoring game, but Reggie Ball and Calvin Johnson are simply not capable of matching Brady Quinn, Rhema McKnight, Jeff Samardzija, and Darius Walker blow-for-blow in a shootout. The Irish can double-team Johnson, and let whoever starts at the other wide receiver try to beat man coverage. The Irish have so many weapons, however, that the best any team can hope to do is keep the receivers in front of them, not to prevent the offense from being effective. I expect our defensive experience to give Ball enough pressure and good enough coverage to contain Calvin Johnson, allowing the Irish to pull away in the second half for a victory.

Schedule

Date	Opponent	Prediction
9/2	Notre Dame	L
9/9	Samford	W
9/16	Troy	W
9/21	Virginia	W
9/30	@Virginia Tech	L
10/7	Maryland	W
10/21	@ Clemson	L
10/28	Miami	L
11/4	@ NC State	W
11/11	@ North Carolina	W
11/18	Duke	W
11/25	@ Georgia	L

Mike Davis + Indiana University = Tyrone Willingham + Notre Dame

(First, allow me to apologize for my lack of posting, but I have actually been studying this semester...)

As an Indiana alum and current Domer, I can't help but feel a strong sense of deja vu between the situation currently transpiring at Indiana and what happened last year at Notre Dame.

1. Both were coaches hired in a big hurry by a program with a big black eye.

In Notre Dame's case, it had just fired a mediocre coach (Davie) who had failed to live up to expectations. It bungled the whole search process, being turned down by coach after coach, and then the coach it settled on was fired for lying on his resume. Enter Willingham, an easy band-aid to place over the sucking wound, a character guy from an academic school, with the added bonus that he would be Notre Dame's first African-American head coach, and also the most prestigious college football program to hire an African-American coach. Race shouldn't ever be an issue, but ND learned the hard way that as an issue it's impossible to avoid.

For IU, they had just fired their legendary coach, who was on the brink of becoming the winningest coach in history and had already procured three national championships, in a widely publicized and controversial breach of the "zero-tolerance" policy. Because this firing occurred in September, there was no opportunity to complete a coaching search, and IU needed something to keep their recruits from fleeing the sinking program. Enter Mike Davis, who along with Mike Treloar, was hired as the interim head coach. After a 21-win season, Davis became an easy fix, much like Willingham, with the similar bonuses: he was from the program, a great defensive coach, and also had the added bonus of providing the PR bump that a school's first African American head coach brings.

2. Both coaches had amazing runs early in their careers, providing them with more job security than they ever deserved.

Notre Dame started Willingham's first season 8-0, winning exciting close games on Davie's defense while Willingham's west-coast offense struggled. The amazing run stumbled down the stretch, though, with blowout losses to USC and NC State.

Davis' first year without the interim label saw him literally limp into the NCAA tournament on the strength of two wins in the Big Ten tournament after a solid (but not spectacular) 18-win regular season and a spate of injuries. After a thrilling win over top seed Duke in the Sweet Sixteen during the Cinderella run to the Championship game (which ended in a double-digit loss to the Terrapins), Davis also appeared much more brilliant a coach than he actually was, still coasting on his legendary predecessor's recruiting and coaching acumen.

3. Both coaches turned in pitiful performances for the remainder of their careers, with just enough wins to keep the dogs at bay for a couple of years.

Willingham posted the worst 15-game stretch since 1960 during the period following his 8-0 start. Worse, he lost more games by three or more touchdowns during his three years than Notre Dame failures Bob Davie and Gerry Faust combined.

Davis, who inherited a program with one of the longest streaks of NCAA tournament appearances in history, missed the tournament in his third year after being bounced in the second round in his second.


Now, Indiana's AD, Rick Greenspan, needs to pick up the phone and call the Irish, inquiring about the process that led them to hire Coach Weis, as their coaching search is going to be very similar:
- Notre Dame fans, upon Willingham's dismissal, were clamoring for Urban Meyer, a former assistant at the Irish who was doing well at a lesser school (Utah), and spoke as if his return to the Notre Dame family was a foregone conclusion.
- Indiana fans, upon Davis' rsignation, are clamoring for Steve Alford, a former player who is doing well at a lesser school (Iowa), and are speaking as if his return to the Hoosier family is a foregone conclusion.
- Notre Dame had to deal with media speculation about the desirability of their head coaching position, lamenting about the demise of their program, and a list of candidates that included anyone who had even thought about coaching anything (football preferred).
- Indiana is already in the middle of the firestorm questioning the desirability of the position and a laundy list of candidates that includes anyone who has even thought about coaching anything (basketball preferred).

I don't know nearly as much about basketball coaches as I do about football coaches, but I I were to put my two cents in, I would look for the following attributes in a head coach:

1. A proven history of excelling/winning
Coach Weis improved his team in EVERY position he held as a coach prior to going to ND. As a high school head coach, he won championships, as a position coach, he created pro-bowlers, as a coordinator, he won Superbowls and molded a legend (2-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady).
I'm not as familiar with the candidates in basketball that meet this criteria, but some that stand out are: Mark Few, Gonzaga head coach; Bruce Pearl, Wisconsin-Milwaukee head coach; Karl Hobbs, George Washington head coach

2. A connection with the program
With Weis, we hit the jackpot on this one as well, a Notre Dame alum who gets Notre Dame. Indiana also needs a coach that understands the history of the program.
Coaches that fit this mold: Steve Alford, Iowa head coach; Isaiah Thomas, Knicks President; Larry Bird, former Indiana State and Celtics player, former Pacers coach.

3. Dedication to the program
This one is harder to measure quantitively, but if you want to know why I think this is important, look at how Willingham was talking to Washington long before the Irish canned him, and consider the following words form Davis' press conference:
"When I took over the head coaching job here at Indiana, I never planned on being here for a long time. It was my first year as a head basketball coach, and I was a young coach and we won 21 games. As I said before, I stayed here because when Coach Knight was fired, the majority of the basketball players wanted to leave. I stayed here to keep a basketball team together. That is why I stayed for that reason. Not one player left, everybody stayed. I felt like I did my part when everyone stayed. We had a good season and won 21 games. The next year, we played for a national championship. The year after that, we won 21 games. I never felt like I would be the basketball coach here for the rest of my career. I just felt like it was time for me to step aside. When you love something and you know it is better without you, to step aside is the best thing to do. That is what I am doing. I am stepping aside, but I am still coaching these guys. This is my basketball team. These guys have a chance to make it to the (NCAA) tournament. Our guys are going to fight. It is time for them to clear their minds about me as a basketball coach. I just feel like it is the best thing for us."


I hope the Indiana brass will take their time and hire the RIGHT coach, not simply the popular one.

Fiesta Bowl Analysis

With the long-awaited Fiesta Bowl only days away, it is now time to begin breaking down the matchups for the Big Game.

Rather than doing one large article, I am going to try and do several, smaller articles over the next few days.

First up:

Ohio State Quarterbacks and Receivers
v.
Notre Dame Secondary

Ohio State Starters:

Troy Smith, QB
1,940 yds, 62% completion, 14 TDs, 4 INTs

Ted Ginn, Jr., WR
43 receptions, 636 yards, 3 TDs

Santonio Holmes, WR
48 receptions, 853 yards, 10 TDs

Notre Dame Starters

Tom Zbikowski, FS
62 tackles, 1 sack, 5 INTs, 4 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble

Chinedum Ndukwe, SS
50 tackles, 2.5 for loss, 2 INTs, 5 pass breakups, 4 forced fumbles

Mike Richardson, CB
62 tackles, 5 for loss, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 7 pass breakups, 2 forced fumbles

Ambrose Wooden, CB
67 tackles, 2 INTs, 5 pass breakups

Matchup:

Ohio State has two extremely talented and fast wide receivers, but neither is particularly tall. Trpy smith consolidated his position at QB this year, but Justin Zwick has also started for the Buckeyes, and if Smith isn't being particularly effective, or is injured, Zwick will not miss a stride should he have to play. Xwick has played in 7 games, completing 72% of his passes.
The dropoff after the first two receivers is steep. Anthony Gonzalez is next on the team with 27 catches for 358 yards and 3 TDs. Roy Hall rounds out the receiving corps, with 14 catches for 112 tds.
Notre Dame has struggled against the pass again this year statistically, but this secondary plays much better than the numbers show. Also, this unit has been not just opportunistic, but have created turnovers deep in their own territory, costing opponents sure points.
Overall, if the Irish can keep Holmes and Ginn in front of them, they will be able to control this passing offense. Expect a couple of big plays, however, as both starting receivers are deep threats.